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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: "Nintendo should get rid of the Switch console and have only the Lite"

theRepublic said:
VAMatt said:

To play devil's advocate here....

Assuming the stat given elsewhere in this thread - that he has an average return per prediction of 7.9% - if you take out the Netflix call, he would have a much higher average return.  

Also note that essentially nobody is able to outperform the market in the long-term with common stock.  So, if you take out the Netflix call and his average return goes up to something like 20%, that's pretty good. 

I have no idea what his average return would ve without Netflix though, because I'm not gonna go do the math.  But, I do know that it would be a lot higher, if he has in fact missed Netflix by 2000%.

That analyst profile says it is a 7.9% return for the last year.  You can't take out something that happened a decade ago.

That's not what it says.  



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VAMatt said:
theRepublic said:

That analyst profile says it is a 7.9% return for the last year.  You can't take out something that happened a decade ago.

That's not what it says.  

It says right in the graphic, "Each rating is measured over a 1 year period".



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Kakadu18 said:
curl-6 said:

In 2009, Pachter predicted that the PS3/360/Wii would be the last console generation ever:

https://v1.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/90443-Pachter-This-Is-The-Final-Generation

The only other job where you could be as off the mark as often as this guy and not get fired would be as a weatherman.

Never even heard of Onlive.

That prediction was by far the dumbest one I have ever heard. Incredible. Pachter should seriously be ashamed of himself. Completely illogical bs.

I'm not surprised you haven't; it was a failed attempt at a game streaming box way back in the 7th gen that predictably crashed and burned.

Pachter thought PS3 would be the last Playstation yet here we are with PS5.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

theRepublic said:
VAMatt said:

That's not what it says.  

It says right in the graphic, "Each rating is measured over a 1 year period".

That doesn't mean last year, or that only one year counts.  Essentially all investment returns are presented on an annualized basis.

If he missed by 2000% over 5 years (just making up that number of years) that would be over 80% annualized. 



VAMatt said:
Acevil said:

I avoided posting in this thread but I feel I need to point out his biggest flaw, it isn't downplaying nintendo. It is downplaying Netflix to the point that investors want him to shut up. 

"This Netflix Analyst Has Cost Investors a 2,000% Return"

"On Nov. 30, 2011, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said Netflix was a broken company, and he saw no way to fix it. Pachter advised his clients to sell the stock, and estimated its value at $6 a share."

"Anyone who followed Pachter’s advice missed out on one of the greatest stock market runs in modern history, a return of more than 2,000% over the last decade. Netflix is now worth 250 billion and trades at about $565 a share. Had you invested just $1,000 when Pachter said to sell, you’d have turned that into more than $20,000."

And most of all his opinion hasn't exactly changed much on the fact he believes you should sell. 

"Pachter believes Netflix will remain the dominant player in streaming for years, commanding 30% of the market. And yet, he still has a sell rating. He’s increased his price target all the way from $6 in 2011 to more than $300 today. But that’s about $200 below where they are trading."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-01-24/this-netflix-analyst-has-cost-investors-a-2-000-return

To play devil's advocate here....

Assuming the stat given elsewhere in this thread - that he has an average return per prediction of 7.9% - if you take out the Netflix call, he would have a much higher average return.  

Also note that essentially nobody is able to outperform the market in the long-term with common stock.  So, if you take out the Netflix call and his average return goes up to something like 20%, that's pretty good. 

I have no idea what his average return would ve without Netflix though, because I'm not gonna go do the math.  But, I do know that it would be a lot higher, if he has in fact missed Netflix by 2000%.

By the by, this is why Robert Kiyosaki said folks shouldn't invest in mutual funds. You pay fees, don't control investments and they don't even outperform the market. 



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"Sony and Microsoft probably won't release another console. That's because there's just no more money in it, and third parties won't want it either. [Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720." - Michael Pachter, 2009

Last edited by curl-6 - on 01 April 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

The Switch hybrid is indeed a very light-weight console. So Pachter is right... 



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

curl-6 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Never even heard of Onlive.

That prediction was by far the dumbest one I have ever heard. Incredible. Pachter should seriously be ashamed of himself. Completely illogical bs.

I'm not surprised you haven't; it was a failed attempt at a game streaming box way back in the 7th gen that predictably crashed and burned.

Pachter thought PS3 would be the last Playstation yet here we are with PS5.

A failed attempt that was eventually purchased by Sony in 2015, and paved the way for what is now known as PlayStation Now.




VAMatt said:
Acevil said:

I avoided posting in this thread but I feel I need to point out his biggest flaw, it isn't downplaying nintendo. It is downplaying Netflix to the point that investors want him to shut up. 

"This Netflix Analyst Has Cost Investors a 2,000% Return"

"On Nov. 30, 2011, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said Netflix was a broken company, and he saw no way to fix it. Pachter advised his clients to sell the stock, and estimated its value at $6 a share."

"Anyone who followed Pachter’s advice missed out on one of the greatest stock market runs in modern history, a return of more than 2,000% over the last decade. Netflix is now worth 250 billion and trades at about $565 a share. Had you invested just $1,000 when Pachter said to sell, you’d have turned that into more than $20,000."

And most of all his opinion hasn't exactly changed much on the fact he believes you should sell. 

"Pachter believes Netflix will remain the dominant player in streaming for years, commanding 30% of the market. And yet, he still has a sell rating. He’s increased his price target all the way from $6 in 2011 to more than $300 today. But that’s about $200 below where they are trading."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-01-24/this-netflix-analyst-has-cost-investors-a-2-000-return

To play devil's advocate here....

Assuming the stat given elsewhere in this thread - that he has an average return per prediction of 7.9% - if you take out the Netflix call, he would have a much higher average return.  

Also note that essentially nobody is able to outperform the market in the long-term with common stock.  So, if you take out the Netflix call and his average return goes up to something like 20%, that's pretty good. 

I have no idea what his average return would ve without Netflix though, because I'm not gonna go do the math.  But, I do know that it would be a lot higher, if he has in fact missed Netflix by 2000%.

Sure, if they forget about that one time he cost his investors to potentially miss out on $20,000, whenever he makes them $200 it must really soften the blow.



Mandalore76 said:
VAMatt said:

To play devil's advocate here....

Assuming the stat given elsewhere in this thread - that he has an average return per prediction of 7.9% - if you take out the Netflix call, he would have a much higher average return.  

Also note that essentially nobody is able to outperform the market in the long-term with common stock.  So, if you take out the Netflix call and his average return goes up to something like 20%, that's pretty good. 

I have no idea what his average return would ve without Netflix though, because I'm not gonna go do the math.  But, I do know that it would be a lot higher, if he has in fact missed Netflix by 2000%.

Sure, if they forget about that one time he cost his investors to potentially miss out on $20,000, whenever he makes them $200 it must really soften the blow.

7.9%? I wonder on what timeframe since mutual fund average returns are about 9.5% annually.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.