Preface: First, let me just get this out of the way. I am a federal libertarian and a state social conservative. This means I have social conservative leanings, but I prefer the vast majority of those to be enacted at a state level. On a federal level, I prefer the government to stay out of most issues and let states do what they want (slavery and abortion being some exceptions). I am trying to look purely at data, without bias, to see how Trump Vs. Biden (2020) is looking in the states that matter compared to Trump vs. Clinton (2016). If there is ANY error in the data I have, it is not intentional, nor is it meant to sway readers to a certain candidate. If you find some data incorrect, please let me know and I will adjust if you can show me the source. I want this data to be as accurate as possible, so I encourage this! Ideally, if this is popular, I will try to do these for major elections going forward. I started this data collection months ago and was a knucklehead for not linking the sources to each piece of data on my spreadsheet. If someone wants to challenge something, I will attempt to rediscover where I found those polls (enthusiasm polls, specifically, are difficult to find). Most of them are from RCP (Real Clear Politics) and average out polls from all over the nation every day.
What the data is: The data will show a few different things. Everything except for the enthusiasm polls will be based on the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. Ohio, Minnesota, and Nevada are not included (even though recent polls have indicated that they are becoming more of a tossup) as they were not battleground states in 2016. The data will show 240 days out from the election, then 210 days, and continue every 30 days until 30 days out from the election.
C = Clinton
B = Biden
T = Trump
RCP 2016 vs. RCP 2020: Clinton vs. Trump and Biden vs. Trump polls
RCP 2016 |
RCP 2020 |
|
240 |
C+4.6 |
B+2.6 |
210 |
C+6.2 |
B+2.2 |
180 |
C+6.7 |
B+3.6 |
150 |
C+4.3 |
B+3.5 |
120 |
C+3.7 |
B+5.3 |
90 |
C+4.3 |
B+5 |
60 |
C+2.8 |
B+3.1 |
30 |
C+4.4 |
B+3.8 |
Avg. |
C+4.625 |
B+3.64 |
Difference between |
Clinton up .985% |
Based on this data, Clinton almost has a 1% outperformance of Biden in these battleground states. But how did the actual election go?
Actual Results RCP 2016 vs. RCP 2020
Actual Results in millions: |
Donald |
Hillary |
Arizona |
1.252 |
1.161 |
Florida |
4.618 |
4.504 |
North Carolina |
2.363 |
2.189 |
Wisconsin |
1.405 |
1.383 |
Michigan |
2.28 |
2.269 |
Pennsylvania |
2.971 |
2.926 |
Average |
14.889 |
14.432 |
Total Votes cast for both candidates in these states |
29.321 |
|
Winner Margin |
Donald +1.56% |
|
Difference compared to battleground polls: |
Trump performed 6.185% better than polls indicated he would in 2016 for these states. |
If polls are similarly accurate this year compared to 2016, then Trump could perform around 7.17% (6.185% + .985% worse for Biden) (Clinton polling +4.625% on average before the election and losing by 1.56%) better in these states than polls have been indicating that he will. Currently, Biden is leading polls in those states by 3.64%, so if the results were the same gap as 2016 then he would lose those states by 2.545%, or .985% more than Clinton lost them in 2016.
Voter Enthusiasm 2016 vs. 2020
Dec. 2015 |
R+13 |
||
January |
|||
February |
|||
March |
T+11 |
||
April |
T+29 |
||
May |
|||
June |
T+37 |
||
July |
T+28 |
||
August |
T+17 |
||
September |
|||
October |
|||
November |
T+13 |
Enthusiasm Average: Trump up 12.33% over Clinton in 2016. Trump up 28.4% over Biden in 2020. Trump has a 16.07% higher enthusiasm gap over Biden (2020) compared to what he had over Clinton (2016). Enthusiasm influences not only people showing up to vote, but bothering to look into absentee ballot laws and registration, making sure their votes are notarized, following up to see if their votes were received, and talking others into voting for their candidate of choice.
Please share your thoughts, but keep it focused on data. The point of this thread isn’t meant for political arguments, but rather to have some interesting data to look at and discuss. I hope I’m not the only one who likes to look at this stuff lol.
Last edited by Dulfite - on 04 October 2020