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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts May 2020 Discussion Thread

trunkswd said:

This is still the same old Gap Charts I've been doing for years. However, talking with some of the staff we've come up with a new title that isn't as long and is more likely to bring in new readers.

Read and share this article here.

Switch vs Wii Sales Comparison - Switch Closes the Gap in May 2020 

Switch Vs. Wii Global:

Gap change in latest month: 180,194 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,099,144 - Switch

Total Lead: 8,652,720 - Wii

Switch Total Sales: 57,517,946

Wii Total Sales: 66,170,666

May 2020 is the 39th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the Switch closed the gap by 180,194 units when you align the launches of the two consoles. In the last 12 months the Switch has outsold the Wii by just 2,099,144 units. The Wii is currently ahead of the Switch by 8.65 million units.

The Wii launched in November 2006, while the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do not lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases.

The 39th month for the Nintendo Switch is May 2020 and for the Wii it is January 2010. The Switch has sold 57.52 million units, while the Wii sold 66.17 million units during the same timeframe.

The Wii sold 101.63 million units worldwide during its lifetime. The Switch needs to sell another 44.11 million units to outsell the Wii.

When you look at it that way, in terms of the total gap left, it really seems quite easily achievable, given Switch sold 21 million, or nearly half the remaining amount, in the last FY alone.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 09 June 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

When you look at it that way, in terms of the total gap left, it really seems quite easily achievable, given Swithc sold 21 million, or nearly half the remaining amount, in the last FY alone.

Hence why I keep telling you that your lifetime sales prediction is too low.

And I will adjust it up if Switch keeps this momentum, I guess I've just seen too many systems quickly losing steam in the second half of their life, especially from Nintendo. 

I am absolutely confident it will outsell the Wii. It's how far beyond that it goes that I'm unsure of.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

trunkswd said:

Read and share this article here.

Switch vs 3DS Sales Comparison – Switch Lead Explodes in May 2020 

Switch Vs. 3DS Global:

Gap change in latest month: 1,337,189 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 10,376,575 - Switch

Total Lead: 15,400,667 – Switch

Switch Total Sales: 57,517,946

3DS Total Sales: 42,117,279

May 2020 is the 39th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the Switch by 1.34 million units when compared to the 3DS during the same timeframe and by 10.38 million units in favor of the Switch in the last 12 months. The Switch is currently ahead of the 3DS by 15.40 million units.

The 3DS launched in February 2011 (however, 3DS sales have been aligned to March 2011, since it only launched at the end of February in Japan), while the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. This does mean the holidays for the two platforms do lineup.

The 39th month for the Nintendo Switch is May 2020 and for the Nintendo 3DS it is May 2014. The Switch has sold 57.52 million units, while the 3DS sold 42.12 million units during the same timeframe.

The Nintendo 3DS has sold 75.22 million units to date. The Nintendo Switch is currently 17.70 million units behind the lifetime sales of the 3DS.

The not uncommon "Switch will sell on par with 3DS" claim, which I still saw crop up as recently as late last year, is ageing like milk in a greenhouse.

Should outsell it lifetime before the FY is out.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

The not uncommon "Switch will sell on par with 3DS" claim, which I still saw crop up as recently as late last year, is ageing like milk in a greenhouse.

Should outsell it lifetime before the FY is out.

By the end of FY? So by March 31, 2021. If demand stays high enough and Nintendo can ship enough consoles, it wouldn't be impossible for the Switch to surpass it by the end of the year. Slim chance, but not impossible now with how well the first half of 2020 has been. 

It's possible, but I'm still skeptical of that given it's June and Nintendo has yet to reveal any big games for beyond July.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

It's possible, but I'm still skeptical of that given it's June and Nintendo has yet to reveal any big games for beyond July.

I am hoping we get something announced this month or next. 

Me too, it's horrible having no clear schedule beyond a month into the future. I worry about it being a wasteland from August onwards due to pandemic delays.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

The not uncommon "Switch will sell on par with 3DS" claim, which I still saw crop up as recently as late last year, is ageing like milk in a greenhouse.

Should outsell it lifetime before the FY is out.

By the end of FY? So by March 31, 2021. If demand stays high enough and Nintendo can ship enough consoles, it wouldn't be impossible for the Switch to surpass it by the end of the year. Slim chance, but not impossible now with how well the first half of 2020 has been. 

The real question I have is, "Will Switch outsell it before 3DS is taken off the market?"  That would be kind of surreal to me.  Kind of like the 3DS getting lapped.



trunkswd said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The real question I have is, "Will Switch outsell it before 3DS is taken off the market?"  That would be kind of surreal to me.  Kind of like the 3DS getting lapped.

I don't see Nintendo manufacturing the 3DS much longer. Sales for the handheld are tiny nowadays. 

Heh, if I were them I already would have stopped.  I never can tell how long they are going to drag these things out.



curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

By the end of FY? So by March 31, 2021. If demand stays high enough and Nintendo can ship enough consoles, it wouldn't be impossible for the Switch to surpass it by the end of the year. Slim chance, but not impossible now with how well the first half of 2020 has been. 

It's possible, but I'm still skeptical of that given it's June and Nintendo has yet to reveal any big games for beyond July.

Clubhouse Games has released now and it might be coincidence but they did their Nindies thing a day before the PS5 GDC event and Paper Mario was announced the day after the Unreal Demo so we might get something after the Sony showcase.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Honestly, it's impressive Switch kept up with DS as long as it did.

I'm skeptical that any system will ever again sell DS/PS2 numbers.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

It will be interesting to see how these two systems compare once Nintendo is able to keep the Switch in adequate supply.