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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Next gen PS5/XB1SX sales ratio will look the same as this gen's. Huge changes in console marketshare require huge changes in the industry.

DonFerrari on 13 May 2020
RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

Care to explain how Sony turned over a 3 year bad momentum on PS3 versus Xbox360 within the next 3 years of that same gen but Xbox One wasn't capable to turn the 6 months bad momentum on X1 vs PS4 in the remaining 5 years?

The PS3 was selling nearly 1:1 with the 360, the LTD gap between the two consoles being largely owed to the ~5.5m headstart the 360 had. At its peak, the 360 was ahead of the PS3 by ~8m, so that's a gain of only ~1m per year until the point where Sony introduced the PS3 Slim.

The PS4 was selling at a ratio of 2:1 or above in comparison to the XB1, so the hill that the XB1 had to climb was much, much steeper.

While people remember how big the blunders were that Sony committed with the PS3, it happens all too often that the situation is portrayed as Microsoft doing everything right at the time. But in reality, Microsoft largely botched their headstart (again, the 360 sold only ~5.5m in the 12 months before the PS3 launched) and then had to deal with the negative PR of the widespread Red Ring of Death.

That doesn't address the second part of the point, on why he believe MS was unable to do anything in the whole gen for the small and short timed problem they had on the start of this gen.

Also if you ask him he will say that MS was winning the last gen the whole time and other stuff such as launch alignment doesn't matter, that PS3 winning all the years of sale except one also doesn't matter, etc.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari on 13 May 2020
RolStoppable said:
vivster said:

That's a premature and perplexing prediction.

People aren't disappointed by Microsoft's hardware this time around. Similarly, the outlook for Microsoft's first party games is more positive. The marketing that XSX is about games is also better received than "TV, TV, TV." There are no negative rumors floating around that Microsoft's upcoming box will clamp down on used games, be always online or the like.

Basically, it's not even a prediction like you say. It's an analysis of what's already here.

We have to remember that around this time last gen the Xbox fans here in the forum liked the console and strategy. I do also remember that fabulous "the smart 13 vs 41 countries" or something like that thread. Besides of course "globally in USA".



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 13 May 2020
RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

That doesn't address the second part of the point, on why he believe MS was unable to do anything in the whole gen for the small and short timed problem they had on the start of this gen.

Also if you ask him he will say that MS was winning the last gen the whole time and other stuff such as launch alignment doesn't matter, that PS3 winning all the years of sale except one also doesn't matter, etc.

Those are things for him to answer. I don't think you need to hear anything more from me here, other than me acknowledging that he is biased.

DonFerrari said:

We have to remember that around this time last gen the Xbox fans here in the forum liked the console and strategy. I do also remember that fabulous "the smart 13 vs 41 countries" or something like that thread. Besides of course "globally in USA".

The Xbox camp was split at the time. There was the group that went along with Microsoft, but also a sizeable group that didn't like Microsoft's decisions. "13 vs. 41 countries" in a positive light probably originated from the user Jega who made a bunch of troll threads while "globally in the USA" was definitely from the Sony fanboy who impersonated a deluded Xbox fanboy; his name escapes me, but the point is that he was the opposite of an Xbox fan.

Nope, the user was Selnor and he truly believed that, he left the general forum when PS4 started to pull ahead WW.

I don't have the split numbers, but could be something like right now we have a lot of PS fans disappointed with the less power and the lack of information saying PS5 will lose to XSX, but from my counts that is a small number of PS fans. Do you have any memory of how much of the Xbox userbase was pissed with the MS direction start of this gen?

I agree with you that even with all the mistakes Sony done in PS3 gen and the recovery done in total numbers they weren't ever that far from Xbox (although the drop from PS2 was staggering).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

eva01beserk on 13 May 2020
Conina said:
eva01beserk said:
Some are waiting for some major announcements to vote. But I argue that something major has already been around.

VR.

We know MS is not touching it this gen either

Sorry, but we don't know that.

All we know is that VR currently ain't ther focus and that XSX ain't VR compatible at launch.

Maybe they'lll announce VR for XSX next year, maybe XBVR even is available before PSVR2.

probable. But very unlikely for the reasons I stated before. The most I think they will do is allow third party compatibility. I see an occulous or vive being used with the xbox. If so the price of entry for xbox VR will be way higher than playstation. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

eva01beserk on 13 May 2020
Pok87 said:
I think it will be something like this:

Xbox - 70-80 mln
PS5 - 100-110 mln

The market will increase, as well the number of owners of both consoles.

So ps5 will decrease and MS will nearly double and you still say both will increase?



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

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Pok87 on 13 May 2020
eva01beserk said:
Pok87 said:
I think it will be something like this:

Xbox - 70-80 mln
PS5 - 100-110 mln

The market will increase, as well the number of owners of both consoles.

So ps5 will decrease and MS will nearly double and you still say both will increase?

There will be more owners of both consoles at once - Xbox and PS5 - because this time MS will have more good exclusive games.



vivster on 13 May 2020
RolStoppable said:
vivster said:

That's a premature and perplexing prediction.

People aren't disappointed by Microsoft's hardware this time around. Similarly, the outlook for Microsoft's first party games is more positive. The marketing that XSX is about games is also better received than "TV, TV, TV." There are no negative rumors floating around that Microsoft's upcoming box will clamp down on used games, be always online or the like.

Basically, it's not even a prediction like you say. It's an analysis of what's already here.

Nothing is already here, though. There is still plenty of time to fuck things up. MS has shown in the past that they're particularly adept at that.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Cerebralbore101 on 13 May 2020

RolStoppable said:
vivster said:

Nothing is already here, though. There is still plenty of time to fuck things up. MS has shown in the past that they're particularly adept at that.

The same holds true for Sony, but I rather wait until blunders are committed than assume which ones are going to happen.

I have a ton of replies to make on this thread, but I just wanted to say that: Any blunders made by either MS or Sony would have been telegraphed at this point in the next gen news cycle. Some company doing a massive 11th hour screwup at this point would be unprecedented. Even Sega's huge blunder of surprise launching the Saturn at $100 more than PS1 was known by May 13th 1995. 

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 13 May 2020

GaoGaiGarV on 13 May 2020
Cerebralbore101 said:

Oh, and as far as Nintendo goes, they had to massively change their strategies with both the Wii, and the Switch in order to make a comeback. I really don't think the Switch or the Wii needs explaining, so I'll leave it at that. 

Their strategy wasn't really that big of a jump. They simply added a second screen to their GBA, called it NDS, increased prices and sales exploded. Later they removed the second screen from the 3DS, called it Switch, increased prices again and sales exploded again. :D



sales2099 on 13 May 2020
DonFerrari said:
sales2099 said:

The general notion May 2020 about Xbox is not what the internet was like in May 2013 concerning Xbox. The brand was going in the wrong direction then, that’s not the case now. Your opening comment fails to acknowledge that and is a gross exaggeration.

The Xbox X came too late but it matters more in the beginning, when core gamers decide where to play their multiplats and it snowballs from there. And that’s a major advantage PS4 had with constant multiplat comparisons of 900p vs 1080p. 

As far as Switch goes, only a few minor games made their way over, or games that were all ready multiplat. And I suppose it’s a culture divide but PC isn’t separate anymore. It’s part of the ecosystem for anyone who partakes. And I’ve always had the notion that serious PC gamers weren’t gonna buy a Xbox anyway, so MS brings the games to them and thus has little impact on console sales. 


Power alone doesn’t win a gen, so good thing MS has the cheaper Xbox in the works. And they have been doing much promises lately, but July should start to put those concerns to rest. But you seem deluded yourself in that you don’t recognize their efforts in superior backwards compatibility, Game Pass being the best deal in gaming and a reason in itself to own a Xbox over PS. Xcloud being a wild card and their new studios paying off once their games are ready (it’s all ready been a couple years for many of their buys). 

I’ll just say that with this gen, you don’t need a Xbox to support Xbox. And that’s what will give the brand a fighting chance. PC gamers can “stick it to MS” by not buying their consoles, yet they be playing their games all the same. They be gaining a community where Sony largely won’t go. 

Care to explain how Sony turned over a 3 year bad momentum on PS3 versus Xbox360 within the next 3 years of that same gen but Xbox One wasn't capable to turn the 6 months bad momentum on X1 vs PS4 in the remaining 5 years?

Oh that’s simple, Sony is consistent where as MS is not. Which is why their brand is much stronger. So MS def has to be on top of their game to be competitive. 



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles.