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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

I think AC/MK8D should be in their own tier. Those will leg up to 55-60M at this pace.

ACNH will do 5-7M in the holiday quarter this year and be sitting at 31-33M.

8.0M 2021
5.5M 2022
3.5M 2023
2.0M 2024
2.5M LTD

That's ~54.5M with an aggressive 76% drop in 2021 off of only a 9 month first year. What if Lite gets a bundle this year or next year @$200 or even cheaper (150? 170?). Could stay over 10M next year and then it legs past 60M.

MK8D same story. Expecting 4-5M in this year's holiday quarter has it sitting at 33-34M by end of 2020 (that's 10.5-11M, peak year in year 4 lol, and this current quarter was just the largest non-holiday/launch quarter it ever had - last quarter was second largest).

2021 - 9.0M
2022 - 6.5M
2023 - 5.0M
2024 - 3.0M
LTD - 4.0M

That's 60M. I guess if they launch MK9 sometime in 2022-2024 it might dent these numbers, but we're still looking at 50-55M.

BOTW and SSBU expecting mid-to-high 30M range. BOTW has now slightly beat out SSBU for the past 2 quarters, which I did not expect, especially given SSBU's strong extended DLC support. I imagine this trend continues and it pulls back ahead in a year or so. Expecting 35-40M range for BOTW and ~35M for Smash. These are the top heavyweights, with SMO/Pokemon rounding out this category.

Maybe Mario 3D World and BOTW2 join this category (at this point, I'm doubtful that BOTW2 doesn't cross 20M - it will have a mega opening that'll make it hard to miss the 20M mark I think. Anything beyond that depends on WOM and further NSW hardware legs.



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mk7sx said:

I think AC/MK8D should be in their own tier. Those will leg up to 55-60M at this pace.

ACNH will do 5-7M in the holiday quarter this year and be sitting at 31-33M.

8.0M 2021
5.5M 2022
3.5M 2023
2.0M 2024
2.5M LTD

That's ~54.5M with an aggressive 76% drop in 2021 off of only a 9 month first year. What if Lite gets a bundle this year or next year @$200 or even cheaper (150? 170?). Could stay over 10M next year and then it legs past 60M.

MK8D same story. Expecting 4-5M in this year's holiday quarter has it sitting at 33-34M by end of 2020 (that's 10.5-11M, peak year in year 4 lol, and this current quarter was just the largest non-holiday/launch quarter it ever had - last quarter was second largest).

2021 - 9.0M
2022 - 6.5M
2023 - 5.0M
2024 - 3.0M
LTD - 4.0M

That's 60M. I guess if they launch MK9 sometime in 2022-2024 it might dent these numbers, but we're still looking at 50-55M.

BOTW and SSBU expecting mid-to-high 30M range. BOTW has now slightly beat out SSBU for the past 2 quarters, which I did not expect, especially given SSBU's strong extended DLC support. I imagine this trend continues and it pulls back ahead in a year or so. Expecting 35-40M range for BOTW and ~35M for Smash. These are the top heavyweights, with SMO/Pokemon rounding out this category.

Maybe Mario 3D World and BOTW2 join this category (at this point, I'm doubtful that BOTW2 doesn't cross 20M - it will have a mega opening that'll make it hard to miss the 20M mark I think. Anything beyond that depends on WOM and further NSW hardware legs.

I agree that MK8DX will cross 50 mil and AC has a very good shot at it as well, but I don't really see a reason to give them their own tier though. Its interesting to compare them to the others.

I'm very doubtful that 3D World will join the heavyweight category, but a new 3D Mario almost certainly would and that's likely to happen. Pokémon Gen 9 is also a shoo-in.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

UnderwaterFunktown said:
mk7sx said:

I think AC/MK8D should be in their own tier. Those will leg up to 55-60M at this pace.

ACNH will do 5-7M in the holiday quarter this year and be sitting at 31-33M.

8.0M 2021
5.5M 2022
3.5M 2023
2.0M 2024
2.5M LTD

That's ~54.5M with an aggressive 76% drop in 2021 off of only a 9 month first year. What if Lite gets a bundle this year or next year @$200 or even cheaper (150? 170?). Could stay over 10M next year and then it legs past 60M.

MK8D same story. Expecting 4-5M in this year's holiday quarter has it sitting at 33-34M by end of 2020 (that's 10.5-11M, peak year in year 4 lol, and this current quarter was just the largest non-holiday/launch quarter it ever had - last quarter was second largest).

2021 - 9.0M
2022 - 6.5M
2023 - 5.0M
2024 - 3.0M
LTD - 4.0M

That's 60M. I guess if they launch MK9 sometime in 2022-2024 it might dent these numbers, but we're still looking at 50-55M.

BOTW and SSBU expecting mid-to-high 30M range. BOTW has now slightly beat out SSBU for the past 2 quarters, which I did not expect, especially given SSBU's strong extended DLC support. I imagine this trend continues and it pulls back ahead in a year or so. Expecting 35-40M range for BOTW and ~35M for Smash. These are the top heavyweights, with SMO/Pokemon rounding out this category.

Maybe Mario 3D World and BOTW2 join this category (at this point, I'm doubtful that BOTW2 doesn't cross 20M - it will have a mega opening that'll make it hard to miss the 20M mark I think. Anything beyond that depends on WOM and further NSW hardware legs.

I agree that MK8DX will cross 50 mil and AC has a very good shot at it as well, but I don't really see a reason to give them their own tier though. Its interesting to compare them to the others.

Unless the disparity squashes the chart too much and makes it hard to read, I agree that it's better to keep them all on one chart. But if it gets too unreadable for the "smaller" games (as in, under 20M sales. And geez, calling something selling 12-20M a smaller title...), better put the top 2 in a separate chart. Best would be of course if there's another title(s) to join them at the top, but Nintendo already catched a lightning a bottle twice in a row on the Switch, managing to do that a third time would be absolutely crazy.

But here's the thing: There are probably more titles coming out that will sell 12M+. BotW2 is already a serious contender, and any upcoming Pokemon game that isn't Snap should also get into there. So if that chart gets too crowded, then maybe it will be necessary to split it into one 15-25M and one 25M+ chart.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 09 November 2020

Bofferbrauer2 said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:
mk7sx said:

I think AC/MK8D should be in their own tier. Those will leg up to 55-60M at this pace.

ACNH will do 5-7M in the holiday quarter this year and be sitting at 31-33M.

8.0M 2021
5.5M 2022
3.5M 2023
2.0M 2024
2.5M LTD

That's ~54.5M with an aggressive 76% drop in 2021 off of only a 9 month first year. What if Lite gets a bundle this year or next year @$200 or even cheaper (150? 170?). Could stay over 10M next year and then it legs past 60M.

MK8D same story. Expecting 4-5M in this year's holiday quarter has it sitting at 33-34M by end of 2020 (that's 10.5-11M, peak year in year 4 lol, and this current quarter was just the largest non-holiday/launch quarter it ever had - last quarter was second largest).

2021 - 9.0M
2022 - 6.5M
2023 - 5.0M
2024 - 3.0M
LTD - 4.0M

That's 60M. I guess if they launch MK9 sometime in 2022-2024 it might dent these numbers, but we're still looking at 50-55M.

BOTW and SSBU expecting mid-to-high 30M range. BOTW has now slightly beat out SSBU for the past 2 quarters, which I did not expect, especially given SSBU's strong extended DLC support. I imagine this trend continues and it pulls back ahead in a year or so. Expecting 35-40M range for BOTW and ~35M for Smash. These are the top heavyweights, with SMO/Pokemon rounding out this category.

Maybe Mario 3D World and BOTW2 join this category (at this point, I'm doubtful that BOTW2 doesn't cross 20M - it will have a mega opening that'll make it hard to miss the 20M mark I think. Anything beyond that depends on WOM and further NSW hardware legs.

I agree that MK8DX will cross 50 mil and AC has a very good shot at it as well, but I don't really see a reason to give them their own tier though. Its interesting to compare them to the others.

Unless the disparity squashes the chart too much and makes it hard to read, I agree that it's better to keep them all on one chart. But if it gets too unreadable for the "smaller" games (as in, under 20M sales. And geez, calling something selling 12-20M a smaller title...), better put the top 2 in a separate chart. Best would be of course if there's another title(s) to join them at the top, but Nintendo already catched a lightning a bottle twice in a row on the Switch, managing to do that a third time would be absolutely crazy.

But here's the thing: There are probably more titles coming out that will sell 12M+. BotW2 is already a serious contender, and any upcoming Pokemon game that isn't Snap should also get into there. So if that chart gets too crowded, then maybe it will be necessary to split it into one 15-25M and one 25M+ chart.

Yea it's true that the charts could eventually get too crowded, and if that happens I will split it up further. Currently the middleweights chart is the one I'm most worried about though, but I suppose if I make 3 tiers it would probably make sense to move Super Mario Party up to the second one and maybe Ring Fit if it keeps up its momentum.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

I don't understand the attraction to animal crossing. Is there some hidden shit that gives you a high in the game or something lol?



 

 

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another chart of the lower weights would be nice, like xenoblade, kirby, and fire emblem.



Cobretti2 said:
I don't understand the attraction to animal crossing. Is there some hidden shit that gives you a high in the game or something lol?

Well, I don't see any appeal in Call of Duty or Fifa, for instance, but they sell millions of copies each and every year.

Tastes differ, don't think about it too much.



Cobretti2 said:
I don't understand the attraction to animal crossing. Is there some hidden shit that gives you a high in the game or something lol?

It's just a matter of taste I guess. 

For instance I find sport games pretty boring, and don't like FPS either, but many people love them, likely the most popular genres in Europe 

I always liked life simulator games, so one about befriending cute animals and decorating my home and island is perfect, it's relaxing and was very nice for socializing during the lockdown too 



TheBraveGallade said:
another chart of the lower weights would be nice, like xenoblade, kirby, and fire emblem.

Unfortunately we don't get regular shipment updates on games that "small" since Nintendo usually only reveals numbers when a game ships over 1 mil within a fiscal year. Even a game like Mario Maker we haven't gotten any updates on since March and we might not get any updates on it at all after the end of this fiscal year.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

UnderwaterFunktown said:
TheBraveGallade said:
another chart of the lower weights would be nice, like xenoblade, kirby, and fire emblem.

Unfortunately we don't get regular shipment updates on games that "small" since Nintendo usually only reveals numbers when a game ships over 1 mil within a fiscal year. Even a game like Mario Maker we haven't gotten any updates on since March and we might not get any updates on it at all after the end of this fiscal year.

SMM2 shipped 0.44m in the quarter from January to March 2020. The game should have good enough legs to get a yearly update in the current and next fiscal year, but the current fiscal year will be the last one where we'll get an update after both fiscal Q3 and Q4. I estimate that it is at 0.6-0.7m in the current fiscal year through two quarters, so the holiday quarter should push it above the 1m threshold.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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