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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch: a multi-wave console lifecycle (prediction)

 

The future of the Switch

A long life-cycle within 1 hardware revision 18 34.62%
 
A long life-cycle with ma... 28 53.85%
 
A short lifecycle then a ... 6 11.54%
 
Total:52

I expect a "new Switch" in 2021 or 2022. The old game settings for docked mode will probably transfer to the undocked settings of the new device and they will add a "new docked mode". Three presets for all Switch games should be manageable:

less demanding games: 720p on old Switch undocked, 1080p on old Switch docked and new Switch undocked, 1440p+ on new Switch docked

more demanding games: ~540p on old Switch undocked, ~720p on old Switch docked and new Switch undocked, 1080p on new Switch docked



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So, I haven't read through all of the discussion following my last post. However, from what I gathered I'm not even sure how to respond to it anymore, as it's just wishful thinking at this point. One person is arguing we should get a Switch 2 at the end of next year, even though Nintendo publicly says the Switch is going to have a long life. The other person, to stay somewhat inline with Nintendo's comments, now tries to argue the Switch will be replaced after a normal period of time and then get half a decade of software support while being kept in a continuous twilight-state where the Switch 2 has already been on the market for years but the Switch 1 will still be supported, but sell very low numbers, but of course will still be profitable for Nintendo. I'm not even sure what to say, it's just nonsensical (no offense, I just mean it doesn't make sense). I realise some people personally want a Switch 2 to release soon, for whatever reason, but why not just say so? Why argue against all facts, and the creators of the platform, that it would make business sense to do this?



Louie said:

So, I haven't read through all of the discussion following my last post. However, from what I gathered I'm not even sure how to respond to it anymore, as it's just wishful thinking at this point. One person is arguing we should get a Switch 2 at the end of next year, even though Nintendo publicly says the Switch is going to have a long life. The other person, to stay somewhat inline with Nintendo's comments, now tries to argue the Switch will be replaced after a normal period of time and then get half a decade of software support while being kept in a continuous twilight-state where the Switch 2 has already been on the market for years but the Switch 1 will still be supported, but sell very low numbers, but of course will still be profitable for Nintendo. I'm not even sure what to say, it's just nonsensical (no offense, I just mean it doesn't make sense). I realise some people personally want a Switch 2 to release soon, for whatever reason, but why not just say so? Why argue against all facts, and the creators of the platform, that it would make business sense to do this?

The Switch-3DS basically already did exactly what you're saying cannot happen.  Nintendo did release *twenty* 3DS games after Switch launched in a 24 month period (the Switch had an even 24 Nintendo made/published titles in the same period) ... that's a regular flow of games. The DS by comparison got five new releases after the 3DS launched. 

They've already basically shown how they can do it. Any store (that's open) and carries video games still has a 3DS section today, we are in May 2020 ... that is almost 9 1/2 years since the 3DS launched. This is already one of the longest product cycles in Nintendo's history. It's now longer than even the DS, so the 3DS outlived the DS despite having far fewer sales. 

And there's no real indication that Nintendo plans to stop selling the 3DS. It may well make it to its 10th anniversary. If that is not an extended product cycle, exactly what is? The Switch should be able to do the same, only with likely better sales and better software in that cycle, because Nintendo will be able to use those games for Switch 2 easily too, so there's no dilemma in "well we don't want to make this game for Switch 1, because it's taking away from Switch 2", unified product family basically nullifies that problem. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 10 May 2020

RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

The Switch-3DS basically already did exactly what you're saying cannot happen.  Nintendo did release *twenty* 3DS games after Switch launched in a 24 month period ... that's a regular flow of games. The DS by comparison got five new releases after the 3DS launched. 

They've already basically shown how they can do it. Any store (that's open) and carries video games still has a 3DS section today, we are in May 2020 ... that is almost 9 1/2 years since the 3DS launched. This is already one of the longest product cycles in Nintendo's history. It's now longer than even the DS, so the 3DS outlived the DS despite having far fewer sales. 

And there's no real indication that Nintendo plans to stop selling the 3DS. It may well make it to its 10th anniversary. If that is not an extended product cycle, exactly what is? 

Not convincing at all. Too much straw.

Can't argue against facts. 



RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

Can't argue against facts. 

Yes, that describes you pretty well, hence your habitual straw man arguments.

Aside from that, did you know that half a year equates six months, not two months like you suggest? Did you know that Nintendo didn't provide a forecast for 3DS hardware and software for the fiscal year ending March 2021? That's a very clear indicator that Nintendo plans to stop selling the 3DS.

Even if they stopped selling it tomorrow it is like the 3rd longest product cycle in Nintendo's history already, the longest of the the new century. 

You have to go back to the 1990s to find a longer Nintendo product cycle. 

If that doesn't define as an abnormally long product cycle, I'm not sure what does. 

And really the 3DS is only being "replaced" (if it is at all) because of Switch Lite, not because of the base Switch. If the Lite didn't exist, at $300, the Switch is still basically a different product category from a $149.99 2DS XL and it would stick around probably for several more years. The same will likely be true of Switch-Switch 2 ... until Switch 2 has a $200 or less pocket sized model, it doesn't replace the Switch 1 line directly because the Switch Lite will still be there and serve a portion of the market. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 10 May 2020

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Turns out Furkawa never even actually used the terminology "longer product cycle".

It's a mistranslation added by some dumb little league gaming site. The actual quote is direct from Nintendo's site is:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/200202e.pdf

“By placing our main focus on the Nintendo Switch, we feel we can have a very different hardware life cycle than previous Nintendo consoles.”

This was changed by Videogameschroncile site as they added the word "longer" in parentheses, this is something they pulled out of their ass for clicks and it worked because a bunch of other sites then ran with this as gospel:

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/nintendo-is-considering-its-approach-to-future-console-development/

They mistranslated from the original Japanese version of the Q&A. The official English version supplied by Nintendo themselves does not have the word "longer".



Soundwave, do you ever fact-check the stuff you talk about? The DS saw shipments until 2016. I guess Nintendo had a 12-year plan in mind for it? What about the Gameboy? The Super NES saw shipments for 14 years. The NES got new shipments until 2004, for god's sake. The GBA also saw shipments for 9 years. Game Boy: 14 years. Do I have to go on? 

And as the 3DS sold only 600k units in a whole year, I highly doubt you can "walk into any store" and buy the thing. 



Louie said:

Soundwave, do you ever fact-check the stuff you talk about? The DS saw shipments until 2016. I guess Nintendo had a 12-year plan in mind for it? What about the Gameboy? The Super NES saw shipments for 14 years. The NES got new shipments until 2004, for god's sake. The GBA also saw shipments for 9 years. Game Boy: 14 years. Do I have to go on? 

And as the 3DS sold only 600k units in a whole year, I highly doubt you can "walk into any store" and buy the thing. 

The NES, SNES, Game Boy are not products from this century, they are products from the 1990s. The 3DS will overtake the DS and has already passed the GBA. 

Which country are you living in where you can't walk into a store and not see a 3DS. It's stocked by every major retailer in any of the major markets. This is not some niche product. 

DS was basically in the same spot the 3DS is now in April 2013, Nintendo forecast 0 units at that time, shipments after that point were likely basically deadstock inventory not new units. 

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/nintendo-ds-production-stops.545996/



Soundwave said:

Turns out Furkawa never even actually used the terminology "longer product cycle".

It's a mistranslation added by some dumb little league gaming site. The actual quote is direct from Nintendo's site is:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/200202e.pdf

“By placing our main focus on the Nintendo Switch, we feel we can have a very different hardware life cycle than previous Nintendo consoles.”

This was changed by Videogameschroncile site as they added the word "longer" in parentheses, this is something they pulled out of their ass for clicks and it worked because a bunch of other sites then ran with this as gospel:

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/nintendo-is-considering-its-approach-to-future-console-development/

They mistranslated from the original Japanese version of the Q&A. The official English version supplied by Nintendo themselves does not have the word "longer".

The translation clearly was correct as that was what Furukawa was talking about! We also had the quote from a few days ago where they said the same thing. And Nintendo has been saying this for years. And by the way, when Nintendo talks about lifecycle they clearly mean the time it will take until the Switch 2 releases. You just have to read their statements! 



Soundwave said:
Louie said:

Soundwave, do you ever fact-check the stuff you talk about? The DS saw shipments until 2016. I guess Nintendo had a 12-year plan in mind for it? What about the Gameboy? The Super NES saw shipments for 14 years. The NES got new shipments until 2004, for god's sake. The GBA also saw shipments for 9 years. Game Boy: 14 years. Do I have to go on? 

And as the 3DS sold only 600k units in a whole year, I highly doubt you can "walk into any store" and buy the thing. 

The NES, SNES, Game Boy are not products from this century, they are products from the 1990s. The 3DS will overtake the DS and has already passed the GBA. 

Which country are you living in where you can't walk into a store and not see a 3DS. It's stocked by every major retailer in any of the major markets. This is not some niche product. 

And the GBA, Wii and DS aren't? Because they got shipments for a comparable amount of time, you just once more did not care to check the data I linked and thus missed the Wii! It's getting ridiculous at this point. You just continue to move the goalposts with ever single post.