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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What 10 million sellers does the Switch have left?

I bet a traditional Paper Mario can do it.



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NightlyPoe said:
Spindel said:

Sorry for going OT.

But I would love for MP4 to have a BotW treatment.

Dropped on a completely open world, a solid physics mechanic witch gives open ended problem solving. --> explore and survive.

That would become a 10 million seller

No thanks.  Give me might tight world design any day.

You so remember that the first game was open world?



That's hard to answer after the other thread as we are basically looking for games that will sell between 10 and 20 million units now. Ok, I'll give it a try, my estimated sales potential in brackets.

Breath of the Wild 2 (10-15m): This definitely has a good chance, unless they botch it.

Pokémon Diamond / Pearl Remake (10-15m): Pokémon remakes usually sell over 10m copies. I don't think this will get much of a "Switch boost" as the series is dreading water somewhat but it should sell over 10m.

Rhythm Heaven (5-10m): What's more interesting are series that usually sell in the multi-million range and could be boosted by the Switch. Rhythm Heaven is one such game that could become a surprise breakout hit. Price will be an issues here, it won't sell 10m at 60$

Wario Ware (5-10m): Same goes for Wario Ware! If the game is good, lots of people might pick it up. Same issue with price as Rhythm Heaven.

Tomodachi (10m?): This was huge in Japan and could get huge again.

Paper Mario (5-10m): I think a traditional Paper Mario has the chance to easily sell more than 5m units. Will it make it to 10? I don't know but there's a chance.

Clubhouse games and other "casual" / mass market games (5-10m?): This could go either way, depending on how much Nintendo pushes games like these. If only gaming enthusiasts know that Clubhouse games exists, it won't sell well. But if Nintendo actually markets it this has the potential to be a big seller.

Nintendogs Switch (10-20m): The 3DS version only sold low because the game was targeted at an entirely different demographic than the 3DS hardware at launch. The console itself was expensive and Nintendo themselves did not encourage children to use 3D. But Nintendogs is aimed at children, so... If they release a new one on Switch the series could explode in sales.

Traditional Nintendo IP like Starfox: Thanks to the "Switch boost" traditional IPs like Starfox could sell up to 10m units on Switch. The IP needs to be mass market compatible, though. I doubt F-Zero would sell that well, but it would also receive a sales boost.

That's all I can think of right now! 



Here's what I got, and this includes games which haven't passed 10m yet, but might in the future

High chance of 10m+
Splatoon 2
Super Mario Party
(games which will/might be released)
2 more Pokemon games (one port, one new)
BotW2
Any new Mario platformer (2D or 3D)
Wii Sports-like game

So-So Chance of 10m+
Super Mario Maker 2
NSMBU Deluxe
Luigi's Mansion 3
Ring Fit Adventure
(games which will/might be released)
1-2 more Mario Party games
3D Mario collection
Zelda collection
Nintendogs
Tomodachi
new Monster Hunter
Minecraft
GTA V port
Just Dance
New IPs (first or third party)


Obviously, when I say so-so chance, some will make it and some won't and it's hard to predict which ones will.  Also there is stuff on both lists that might get released but might not, but I'm putting it there because it's not out of the question.  Also, even if a third party game reaches 10m+ there is no guarantee we will get a confirmation.  Minecraft is a prime example.  I have no idea how well it's done on the Switch worldwide so far.



Louie said:

That's hard to answer after the other thread as we are basically looking for games that will sell between 10 and 20 million units now. Ok, I'll give it a try, my estimated sales potential in brackets.

Breath of the Wild 2 (10-15m): This definitely has a good chance, unless they botch it.

Pokémon Diamond / Pearl Remake (10-15m): Pokémon remakes usually sell over 10m copies. I don't think this will get much of a "Switch boost" as the series is dreading water somewhat but it should sell over 10m.

Rhythm Heaven (5-10m): What's more interesting are series that usually sell in the multi-million range and could be boosted by the Switch. Rhythm Heaven is one such game that could become a surprise breakout hit. Price will be an issues here, it won't sell 10m at 60$

Wario Ware (5-10m): Same goes for Wario Ware! If the game is good, lots of people might pick it up. Same issue with price as Rhythm Heaven.

Tomodachi (10m?): This was huge in Japan and could get huge again.

Paper Mario (5-10m): I think a traditional Paper Mario has the chance to easily sell more than 5m units. Will it make it to 10? I don't know but there's a chance.

Clubhouse games and other "casual" / mass market games (5-10m?): This could go either way, depending on how much Nintendo pushes games like these. If only gaming enthusiasts know that Clubhouse games exists, it won't sell well. But if Nintendo actually markets it this has the potential to be a big seller.

Nintendogs Switch (10-20m): The 3DS version only sold low because the game was targeted at an entirely different demographic than the 3DS hardware at launch. The console itself was expensive and Nintendo themselves did not encourage children to use 3D. But Nintendogs is aimed at children, so... If they release a new one on Switch the series could explode in sales.

Traditional Nintendo IP like Starfox: Thanks to the "Switch boost" traditional IPs like Starfox could sell up to 10m units on Switch. The IP needs to be mass market compatible, though. I doubt F-Zero would sell that well, but it would also receive a sales boost.

That's all I can think of right now! 

links awaking 5-10 mill: because it is almost to 5 and if nintendo brings their selects collection over to switch it could get new life at 30 dollars

the wii u Zelda HD remakes 5-10 million: good game on a poor selling system the might sell well if they got on the switch

(this is a pipe dream i know but i want it) HD ocarina of time 10 million+: a good chunk of people love this game and though the 3DS version didn't do it justice and a good chunk who love this game and would just buy it for their new system. If Nintendo announced this today I would pre order it instantly.



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Surprised no one is bringing up Splatoon 3. I doubt we will go another 3-4 years until Switch 2 likely launches without seeing it. That would be like a 7 year gap. And I do think the franchise should continue to grow, especially with Switch’s much much larger install base compared to when 2 launched.



HyrulianScrolls said:
Surprised no one is bringing up Splatoon 3. I doubt we will go another 3-4 years until Switch 2 likely launches without seeing it. That would be like a 7 year gap. And I do think the franchise should continue to grow, especially with Switch’s much much larger install base compared to when 2 launched.

Yeah interesting I've been wondering lately if a Splatoon 3 might come out on Switch. It seems like the second one was very similar to the first (having not played the first myself), so if its just gonna be another very similar game then Splatoon 3 should wait until Switch 2, but if they change it up or advance it a lot then I could totally see Splatoon 3 on the Switch. It'd be another nice mega Japan seller to add to the Switch.



Slownenberg said:
HyrulianScrolls said:
Surprised no one is bringing up Splatoon 3. I doubt we will go another 3-4 years until Switch 2 likely launches without seeing it. That would be like a 7 year gap. And I do think the franchise should continue to grow, especially with Switch’s much much larger install base compared to when 2 launched.

Yeah interesting I've been wondering lately if a Splatoon 3 might come out on Switch. It seems like the second one was very similar to the first (having not played the first myself), so if its just gonna be another very similar game then Splatoon 3 should wait until Switch 2, but if they change it up or advance it a lot then I could totally see Splatoon 3 on the Switch. It'd be another nice mega Japan seller to add to the Switch.

I was gonna say that from what I know Splatoon 2 was only a slight upgrade over the original.

Ideally it could play out like the first 3 Metal Gear Solids. If you've ever gone back to play those 3 games, it becomes noticeable that while MGS2 was a big improvement visually, gameplay-wise it barely feels like an improvement at all. But then when you play MGS3 it feels like a huge leap forward, along with just being plain better in every other department too.

Similarly, now that Splatoon has established itself as a notable franchise for Nintendo and the Switch, they should hopefully be spending the time to develop a sequel that will lift the standard.



Bored with Splatoon as an online game. I want a spinoff that has a larger hub world. Single-player game. Not as Splatoon 3. Just a spinoff. A much more robust single-player game. Maybe truly be the Nintendo JSRF. Ink Rival turf areas with graffiti. Or just maybe a 7-10 hour Single player Splatoon TPS



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Slownenberg said:
GhaudePhaede010 said:
While I saw a lot of answers for the original topic and many of those games I think would pass ten but not twenty million, I will say a game I believe has no chance of hitting twenty million but could go past ten million on Switch (if released exclusively):

Monster Hunter.

True. If they actually bothered to release a legit brand new Monster Hunter on Switch I think it absolutely would hit 10 million. I just doubt they will do that as the go to strategy for all third parties seems to be put old stuff or side projects on Switch. Which is bizarre considering its popularity but whatever. Would love to see a new Monster Hunter made from the ground up with their A team for the Switch.

And we now have the chance to see if the prediction is correct.



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