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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Report: Nintendo has told suppliers to expect an increase of at least 10% in Switch console production for 2020.

Vodacixi said:
You guys are not taking into account the fact that the COVID-19 is gonna have a huge impact in the economy of many countries. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) forsees consequences of a magnitude not seen since the last international crisis (the great recession of the late 2000s). In fact, it could easily be even worse than that. Some people are claiming it will be similar to the 1929 crash (although that seems a little far fetched to me...). Many people are gonna lose their jobs, prices of necessary goods are gonna increase and in general, people will have less money to spend in unnecesary things like videogames.

Now the Switch (and the videogame market in general) is doing great because the consequences are still to be felt and being always at home, entertainment products are in a rise. But when everything is set and done... I think sales are gonna take a noticeable hit.

A bad economy isn't necessarily bad for Nintendo. If the demographic that buys consoles isn't going to the pub/bars/clubs like now then Nintendo games are probably the best and cheapest $/hr form of entertainment.

I wouldn't want to be releasing a new expensive console any time this year though.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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Pyro as Bill said:
Vodacixi said:
You guys are not taking into account the fact that the COVID-19 is gonna have a huge impact in the economy of many countries. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) forsees consequences of a magnitude not seen since the last international crisis (the great recession of the late 2000s). In fact, it could easily be even worse than that. Some people are claiming it will be similar to the 1929 crash (although that seems a little far fetched to me...). Many people are gonna lose their jobs, prices of necessary goods are gonna increase and in general, people will have less money to spend in unnecesary things like videogames.

Now the Switch (and the videogame market in general) is doing great because the consequences are still to be felt and being always at home, entertainment products are in a rise. But when everything is set and done... I think sales are gonna take a noticeable hit.

A bad economy isn't necessarily bad for Nintendo. If the demographic that buys consoles isn't going to the pub/bars/clubs like now then Nintendo games are probably the best and cheapest $/hr form of entertainment.

I wouldn't want to be releasing a new expensive console any time this year though.

Right now they don't go to restaurants and bars because they are not opened.

When the quarantine is over, they won't go to bars and restaurants because they won't have a job or they will have a worse job than before and/or many essential goods will most likely increase their prices. Under these circumstances, videogames will not be a priority for many people that will struggle to even arrive to the end of the month. 

While right now we are kinda feeling some of the economical effects of the COVID-19, to the average Jill or Joe is just numbers on the TV screen. The actual slap in the face will come when we can go outside again and many bussiness and companies will start firing people, among other damaging effects. And I assure you that the videogame industry will feel the hit. Not anything catastrophic mind you, but overall sales (especially in Europe and America) will definitely decrease. 

Also, remember than while the Switch has a strong young/adult demographics, it's still very popular among kids. I wonder if there will be a couple of families that will struggle to buy their child a 300 dolar videogame console... 

And yes, PS5 and Series X will be even more vulnerble to the situation given their high price. 



hunter_alien said:
Wyrdness said:
The platform is sold out globally with no stock available and scalpers running wild, you can't sell what isn't on shelves so this is likely to try and make up for it to appease demand, it's a bittersweet situation as they're heavily in demand but the is no stock in a year where the is no competing platform.

Globally in the US? Just kidding,m I know that stock is also non-existent in Japan too.

This will be a huge year for the Switch. IMO 23 million shipment with 22 million sell-through is in reach, especially if Nintendo pushes some strong titles in Q4.

That's true.
It was strange that the switch had been sold out for a long time, but it was like the influence of the Animal Crossing.



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

I know there's a global pandemic, but manufacturing really needs to go up by 20-30% in 2020. The Switch is midway through its life, and Animal Crossing: New Horizons has brought new life into an already very successful platform. I know someone and have heard of people having to pay $450 and up from third-party sellers for a brand-new Switch because they want to play Animal Crossing. Switch has mostly avoided shortages for a couple years, but they've returned this year. I expect shortages to continue until next year.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

10% ain't gonna be enough to meet demand, but if they can actually pull off a 10% increase in shipments in the middle of a category 5 pandemic that would be an impressive feat in itself.
My guess is they probably won't be able to hit 10% due to ongoing quarantines and manufacturing disruptions.

I don't see how a 10% increase would be a problem. Corona isn't going to dominate the news cycle for this entire year and countries will take the necessary measures to make their economies work, so goods will be produced in the required numbers after the interruption during the early months of this year.

This is comparable to the 2017 shortages when the news made the rounds that certain parts are in short supply and Nintendo has to compete with the likes of Apple to get to them. At that time we had people worried if Nintendo could even reach their projected 10m figure for the fiscal year, but in the end Nintendo managed to ship 15m.

Also, your views change pretty fast. A few weeks ago you couldn't believe that Switch was going to sell more in 2020 than in 2019 due to lack of demand, now you are thinking that a 10% increase in production over last year won't be enough to meet this year's demand. I suppose that's just your perpetual Nintendo pessimism.

A few weeks back I hadn't yet seen the impact of AC.

If this was a normal year I'd say they'll beat 2019 but in the middle of the worst pandemic in over a century? That's gonna make it a lot harder to manufacture both the necessary hardware and software.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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Vodacixi said:
You guys are not taking into account the fact that the COVID-19 is gonna have a huge impact in the economy of many countries. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) forsees consequences of a magnitude not seen since the last international crisis (the great recession of the late 2000s). In fact, it could easily be even worse than that. Some people are claiming it will be similar to the 1929 crash (although that seems a little far fetched to me...). Many people are gonna lose their jobs, prices of necessary goods are gonna increase and in general, people will have less money to spend in unnecesary things like videogames.

Now the Switch (and the videogame market in general) is doing great because the consequences are still to be felt and being always at home, entertainment products are in a rise. But when everything is set and done... I think sales are gonna take a noticeable hit.

While I agree with that your theory make sense that a bad economy in the coming months will hurt sales. But at the same time I think the 7th gen consoles and handheld showed that even in a recession video games and console still sell.

No can really know if that'll translate this time around. But last recession, the video game market flourished. The market is different today though, so can only wait and see.



     

Check out my lastest games review: Fast RMX and  Snipperclips: Cut it out Together

cycycychris said:
Vodacixi said:
You guys are not taking into account the fact that the COVID-19 is gonna have a huge impact in the economy of many countries. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) forsees consequences of a magnitude not seen since the last international crisis (the great recession of the late 2000s). In fact, it could easily be even worse than that. Some people are claiming it will be similar to the 1929 crash (although that seems a little far fetched to me...). Many people are gonna lose their jobs, prices of necessary goods are gonna increase and in general, people will have less money to spend in unnecesary things like videogames.

Now the Switch (and the videogame market in general) is doing great because the consequences are still to be felt and being always at home, entertainment products are in a rise. But when everything is set and done... I think sales are gonna take a noticeable hit.

While I agree with that your theory make sense that a bad economy in the coming months will hurt sales. But at the same time I think the 7th gen consoles and handheld showed that even in a recession video games and console still sell.

No can really know if that'll translate this time around. But last recession, the video game market flourished. The market is different today though, so can only wait and see.

People are more likely to spend their Gym memberships on video games in the current climate I think.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

cycycychris said:
Vodacixi said:
You guys are not taking into account the fact that the COVID-19 is gonna have a huge impact in the economy of many countries. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) forsees consequences of a magnitude not seen since the last international crisis (the great recession of the late 2000s). In fact, it could easily be even worse than that. Some people are claiming it will be similar to the 1929 crash (although that seems a little far fetched to me...). Many people are gonna lose their jobs, prices of necessary goods are gonna increase and in general, people will have less money to spend in unnecesary things like videogames.

Now the Switch (and the videogame market in general) is doing great because the consequences are still to be felt and being always at home, entertainment products are in a rise. But when everything is set and done... I think sales are gonna take a noticeable hit.

While I agree with that your theory make sense that a bad economy in the coming months will hurt sales. But at the same time I think the 7th gen consoles and handheld showed that even in a recession video games and console still sell.

No can really know if that'll translate this time around. But last recession, the video game market flourished. The market is different today though, so can only wait and see.

I strongly believe the situation we are about to live (again, the worst is yet to come) will be very different from what we saw in the late 2000s. The general loss might be similar, but the way it affects people will not be the same. I suspect this is gonna have a very negative impact in the average videogame consumer.

I might be wrong. I cannot say for sure. But taking into account that the services sector (which is composed by mostly young adults) is gonna get absolutely rekt with entire months of no activity whatsoever and a predictable weak activity from the point the quarantine is over until a vaccine is released... many people interested in videogames are gonna either lose their jobs or have a hard time finding one that allows them to keep gaming.

But we'll see.