Maybe Pokémon won't have a negative effect on SMTV sales after all.

From selling over 500K physical in 2018 the Call of Duty franchise might fall to 100K all in the space of three years. 

Overall Western AAA are the worst hit by the anemic state of the PS4/PS5 ecosystem in Japan, Battlefield is next 

The same pattern is repeating from the transition of PS3/PS4. Cod Advance Warfare sold about 147k units between the two versions (PS3 and PS4) back in 2014 when the digital rate was way lower than is it now. 

Advanced Warfare sold 170K at launch and 272K lifetime, Vanguard will be at around 50K launch, lifetime around 100K. 

How well is doing Labyrinth of Galleria compared to it's predecessor?

Yeah, completely ignoring digital while Warzone is a massive funneling point for COD sales is silly. Many people simply don' t need to buy COD to play COD. They play Warzone.

This is why you get the massive drop from BO4 which you needed to buy to play its BR to MW which had F2P BR.

Massive drop after black ops 4? Modern Warfare (2019) is the best selling cod game ever. Over 30 million sold. So the lower sales are only in Japan so the BR f2p reason doesn't make sense.

https://www.thegamer.com/call-of-duty-modern-warfare-historical-best-selling/

And yes digital for cod is massive. 66% of Modern Warfare (2019) sales were digital. https://www.vg247.com/call-of-duty-modern-warfare-smashes-sales-record

So 10m physical, 20m digital in its first year.

Though I imagine this "two thirds digital" is rounded somewhat.

In Japan, where we do not have digital sales numbers. I think Cold War was a decline from MW, and Vanguard will also be simply because its not a standout COD title. 2022 MW2 should be massive though.

What I meant with BR is that more people play COD BR than COD MP/SP. If a Warzone player wants to unlock the MP/SP campaign, its for easier and convenient for them to click a DL PSN store button than buy a physical copy: Warzone encourages digital adoption more than physical.

Not quite, the ratios are different. CoD ended at 10 on PS4 and 6 PS5, that's 16. Battefield is at 5 on PS4 and 7 on PS5, that's 12.  It has more in PS5 but not in total.

Edit. 6 and 7 for 13.

So SMTV finishes at 125 points.
Let's see how that pans out in next weeks' Famitsu numbers.