Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 13, 2020 (Mar 23 - Mar 29)

Using the 2.62mil figure and say 180k were ship to end quarter.... here are estimates we can see combining digital

15% = 800k (3.70mil)
20% = 1.04mil (3.85mil)
25% = 1.30mil (4.10mil)
30% = 1.56mil (4.35mil)
35% = 1.82mil (4.60mil)
40% = 2.08mil (4.90mil)



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I think it has a shot even if very small to do close to 5mil in its first quarter..... o.O



Amazing Q1 Results for Switch Software, due to the launch of Animal Crossing New Horizons, Switch Top 10 Software have already sold over 4.5M, thats an increase of 89% compared to Q1/2019. For the entire 2019 Switch Top 10 titles sold 8.2M TOTAL. So Switch Software Top 10 Software Sales in 2020 are already close to 55% compared to last year's total, with three quarters left to go.

Also this doesn't paint the full picture since Animal Crossing is likely to have at between 1M to 1.5M Digital Sales in Japan in the past three weeks. No doubt the game has shipped over 4M for Q1 with digital. 

Animal Crossing has already sold what Pokemon Sword / Shield - 2019's Top Selling physical game did in just two weeks. It will easily surpass 4.5M physical + 6M physical + digital this year in Japan due to its wide demographical appeal and historic legs. I cannot even predict how high it will end up but its going to be the Top Selling Japanese Game of all time by 2022 if digital is counted. Constant updates/events and price cuts to the Switch HW in the future will ensure multiple Switch devices with Animal Crossing per household in Japan. 

TOP 10 2020 Switch Famitsu Q1:

  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 2.608.417
  2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 554.390
  3. Ring Fit Adventure - 249.488
  4. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 218.394
  5. Minecraft - 185.900
  6. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 181.921
  7. Smash Ultimate - 170.222
  8. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 151.351
  9. Super Mario Party - 118.077
  10. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 117.482

TOTAL: 4.555.642(+89%)

TOP 10 2019 Switch Famitsu Q1:

  1. Smash Ultimate - 631.721
  2. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 547.987
  3. Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! - 225.481
  4. Super Mario Party - 220.392
  5. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 206.568
  6. Minecraft - 182.522
  7. Splatoon 2 - 146.463
  8. Dragon Quest Builders 2 - 97.061
  9. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 95.347
  10. Super Mario Odyssey - 53.224

TOTAL: 2.406.766(+19.7%)

TOP 10 2018 Switch Famitsu Q1:

  1. Splatoon 2 - 417.920
  2. Kirby Star Allies- 372.882
  3. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 305.204
  4. Super Mario Odyssey - 297.817
  5. Zelda:Breath of the Wild - 192.209
  6. Mario + Rabbids - 187.675
  7. 1-2 Switch - 71.591
  8. Arms - 68.842
  9. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch - 48.010
  10. Dragon Quest Builders - 47.101

TOTAL: 2.009.251

TOP 10 Switch Famitsu 2019:

  1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 2.744.658
  2. Smash Ultimate - 1.057.012
  3. Super Mario Maker 2 - 774.102
  4. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 735.437
  5. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 587.829
  6. Minecraft - 579.998
  7. Super Mario Party - 464.208
  8. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S - 456.426
  9. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 446.649
  10. Ring Fit Adventure - 443.118

TOTAL: 8.289.437

Pokemon vs Smash vs Splatoon 2

  1. Smash Ultimate - 631.721
  2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 554.390
  3. Splatoon 2 - 417.920

Pokemon Sword / Shield hasn't performed as well as Smash did in Q1/2019 but considering the additional content and the big expansion of player base, it won't be suprising if it ends up selling over 1.25M in 2020. Which would be a 25% increase compared to what Smash Ultimate did in 2019. 

Ring Fit Adventure is shaping up to be the third biggest game for the first half of this year. Impacted by shortages since launch, it is not even close to saturation.  Couple of positive and negative factors to consider:

+ More Stock for Ring Fit Adventure in Q2

+ New Demographic buying Switch HW due to Animal Crossing

- No digital

- Reliant on peripheral 

- Not optimal on Switch Lite

Overall I expect Ring Fit to easly sell over 600K first half of 2020 but only if shortages are resolved. That type of results would place it in the Top 5 Switch Games for 2020. But personally I think it has a great chance to sell >1M this year in Japan.

Lifetime sales could easily put it close to the Top Selling Wii Sports game which sold 3.7M. I expect Ring Fit to contiue selling into 2021/2022. But I also think we should expect Switch Dance, Switch Sports type of games in 2020/2021. 



noshten said:

(...)

Overall I expect Ring Fit to easly sell over 600K first half of 2020 but only if shortages are resolved. That type of results would place it in the Top 5 Switch Games for 2020. But personally I think it has a great chance to sell >1M this year in Japan.

Lifetime sales could easily put it close to the Top Selling Wii Sports game which sold 3.7M. I expect Ring Fit to contiue selling into 2021/2022. But I also think we should expect Switch Dance, Switch Sports type of games in 2020/2021. 

I agree, RFA should sell more than 1m copies in 2020. Likewise, more than 3m lifetime is a realistic target.

Great effort with all those year over year comparisons, noshten.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

noshten said:

    The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 95.347

    Zelda:Breath of the Wild - 192.209

    It's painful to see how underappreciated is Zelda in Japan

    They pick even easy-made remasters before this masterpiece



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    IcaroRibeiro said:

    It's painful to see how underappreciated is Zelda in Japan

    They pick even easy-made remasters before this masterpiece

    Not really BOTW is the second best selling game in the series over there after the original Zelda with a total of around 1.5m at retail.



    Wyrdness said:
    IcaroRibeiro said:

    It's painful to see how underappreciated is Zelda in Japan

    They pick even easy-made remasters before this masterpiece

    Not really BOTW is the second best selling game in the series over there after the original Zelda with a total of around 1.5m at retail.

    It’s already number 1. 1.92mil+



    IcaroRibeiro said:
    noshten said:

      The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 95.347

      Zelda:Breath of the Wild - 192.209

      It's painful to see how underappreciated is Zelda in Japan

      They pick even easy-made remasters before this masterpiece

      Mario Kart is on track to sell 30 million worldwide, find me a country where it doesn't sell better than Zelda.



      Thanks RolStoppable,

      MK8D vs Zelda:

      Its a bit difficult to compare Zelda & Mario Kart, few games have never reached the heights of Mario Kart.
      As mentioned Breath of the Wild will end up the best selling game in the franchise in Japan. Prior to the release few expected for it to do as well as it has done in Japan.
      To me Zelda is no doubt one of the best games on the Switch, but Mario Kart with its capability to support 4 players locally, online modes, most well know racing game in the World has much greater demographic appeal. It's the type of game that people buying Switch will always have on the top of their list, whether they are buying a Switch for Animal Crossing, Splatoon 2, Odyssey, Ring Fit Adventure. Zelda doesn't have the same appeal, and it's not a knock on Zelda - there is a reason why CoD sells more than Witcher for example.

      Still it's very much speaks to the strenght of Switch's launch year line up: Zelda was a reason for hardcore Nintendo fans to buy the Switch, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was a reason for casual players to buy the Switch, Splatoon 2 was a reason for Japanese Market to continue buying Switch in the summer/Obon and finally Super Mario Odyssey was a reason for the Switch to continue selling strongly in the holiday months.

      These games don't dissapear, even this year Zelda Breath of the Wild has sold 69.378, Splatoon 2 has sold 103.649, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 181.921. Only Super Mario Odyssey has dissapeared from the charts but that's probably because it's also compeating with a lot of other Platformers. Zelda, Splatoon 2 and MK8D don't have competition on the Switch until their sequels come out.

      Considering the expanded demographics on the Switch this year and the release of BotW2, I won't be suprised to see these 3 titles actually do as well as they did in 2019. This year will easily see a huge increase in Switch Hardware and more importantly new demographics in Japan picking up evergreens as their second games. This will be especially easy to see when Nintendo releases their results, because vouchers basically mean that new people purchasing something like Animal Crossing are pickingup a second game digitally. Digital has only grown for Nintendo since vouchers, so physical sales don't paint the full picture. Every time Nintendo has a big game releasing or a sale of 30% for MK8D, Splatoon 2, BotW a bunch of new users are potentially downloading those games. 

      2019 Physical Results:

      1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 587.829
      2. Splatoon 2 - 378.340
      3. Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 301.657
      Last edited by noshten - on 05 April 2020

      Dengeki Online Sales: Week 13, 2020 (Mar 23 - Mar 29)

      01./01. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo) {2020.03.20} - 719,318 / 2,551,177
      02./00. [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco Games) {2020.03.26} - 79,406 / NEW
      03./00. [NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco Games) {2020.03.26} - 66,497 / NEW
      04./05. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} - 12,361 / 2,642,159
      05./03. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX (Pokemon Co.) {2020.03.06} - 11,656 / 219,527
      06./08. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) {2019.10.18} - 11,311 / 706,945
      07./02. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) {2020.03.12} - 10,907 / 131,082
      08./04. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} - 10,828 / 1,373,704
      09./06. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} - 10,794 / 3,688,841
      10./07. [NSW] Pokemon Sword (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} - 7,800 / 1,588,929
      11./11. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} - 6,278 / 3,257,673
      12./00. [PS4] Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts (H2 INTERACTIVE) {2020.03.26} - 6,021 / NEW
      13./12. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} - 5,941 / 1,375,606
      14./10. [NSW] Pokemon Shield (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} - 5,480 / 1,081,119
      15./14. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} - 4,667 / 838,537
      16./00. [PS4] Life Is Strange (Square Enix) {2020.03.26} - 4,579 / NEW
      17./20. [NSW] Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25} - 4,522 / 421,339
      18./13. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo) {2019.12.27} - 4,288 / 182,595
      19./18. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} - 4,211 / 835,789
      20./16. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 (Nintendo) {2019.10.31} - 3,894 / 626,807
      21./17. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) {2019.11.01} - 3,744 / 309,430
      22./00. [PS4] Doom Eternal (Bethesda Softworks) {2020.03.26} - 3,513 / NEW
      23./19. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} - 3,300 / 1,190,662
      24./15. [NSW] My Hero: One's Justice 2 (Bandai Namco Games) {2020.03.12} - 2,472 / 25,822
      25./24. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} - 2,059 / 472,509
      26./00. [NSW] Revenge of Justice (Kemco) {2020.03.26} - 2,048 / NEW
      27./27. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S - Definitive Edition (Square Enix) {2019.09.27} - 1,889 / 519,295
      28./42. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo (Nintendo) {2016.11.23} - 1,760 / 444,979
      29./52. [NSW] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) {2019.06.27} - 1,759 / 237,316
      30./21. [NSW] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) {2020.02.13} - 1,550 / 84,514
      31./35. [NSW] Fit Boxing (Imagineer) {2018.12.20} - 1,529 / 73,928
      32./32. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition (Capcom) {2019.09.06} - 1,506 / 475,438
      33./29. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} - 1,465 / 1,921,267
      34./00. [PS4] Revenge of Justice (Kemco) {2020.03.26} - 1,379 / NEW
      35./34. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Edition (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2019.11.07} - 1,369 / 28,811
      36./09. [NSW] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III (Nippon Ichi Software) {2020.03.19} - 1,367 / 8,448
      37./30. [NSW] Just Dance 2020 (Ubisoft) {2020.03.12} - 1,365 / 5,811
      38./25. [NSW] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) {2020.02.20} - 1,306 / 71,591
      39./00. [PS4] Kin'iro Loveriche (Entergram) {2020.03.26} - 1,303 / NEW
      40./00. [PSV] Kin'iro Loveriche (Entergram) {2020.03.26} - 1,276 / NEW
      41./00. [NSW] Space Invaders: Invincible Collection (Taito) {2020.03.26} - 1,276 / NEW
      42./23. [PS4] Winning Post 9 2020 (Koei Tecmo) {2020.03.12} - 1,260 / 11,866
      43./31. [NSW] Doraemon: Nobita no Shin Kyouryuu (FuRyu) {2020.03.05} - 1,211 / 11,063
      44./36. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy: Versus (Cygames) {2020.02.06} - 1,194 / 112,569
      45./39. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) {2019.10.17} - 1,153 / 137,617
      46./26. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) {2020.02.20} - 1,144 / 156,832
      47./33. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} - 1,141 / 823,927
      48./38. [NSW] Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.10.10} - 1,117 / 160,419
      49./44. [PS4] Minecraft Starter Collection (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.01.16} - 960 / 11,201
      50./48. [PS4] FIFA 20 (Electronic Arts) {2019.09.27} - 956 / 70,873

      Top 50

      NSW - 34
      PS4 - 14
      3DS - 1
      PSV - 1

      Software

      Model This Week Week(%) FY 2019 FY(%)
               
      Switch 953,202 85.9% 18,711,257 71.8%
      PS4 148,056 13.3% 6,653,413 25.5%
      3DS 4,854 0.4% 445,032 1.7%
      Vita 2,823 0.3% 218,21 0.8%
      ETC 902 0.1% 34,378 0.1%
               
      Total 1,109,837 100.0% 26,062,290 100.0%

      Hardware

      Model This Week Week(%) FY 2019 FY(%)
               
      Switch Lite 247,698 78.6% 2,033,650 31.8%
      Switch 55,259 17.5% 3,227,325 50.5%
      PS4 10,559 3.4% 987,557 15.5%
      3DS 1,264 0.4% 123,521 1.9%
      ETC 158 0.1% 7,578 0.1%
      Vita 22 0.0% 6,352 0.1%
               
      Total 314,96 100.0% 6,385,983 100.0%

      one last time. RIP Denkgeki charts.

      Via ZSaberLink on era.



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