By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo switch shipment prediction for FY2020 Q3

 

How many million Switch unit Nintendo will have shiped

Less than 9,4... :( 2 8.70%
 
9,4 - 9,8 0 0%
 
9,8 - 10,2 2 8.70%
 
10,2 - 10,6 8 34.78%
 
10,6 - 11 6 26.09%
 
11 - 11,4 4 17.39%
 
11,4 - 11,8 1 4.35%
 
11,8 - 12,2 0 0%
 
12,2 - 12,6 0 0%
 
More !!! 0 0%
 
Total:23

Switch - 51.52 million (+9.85 mill)

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 22.16 million (+3.15 mill)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 18.11 million (+2.40 mill)
Super Mario Odyssey - 16.83 million (+1.45 mill)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 16.09 million (+1.55 mill)
Pokemon Sword/Shield - 15.00 million (NEW)
Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee - 11.70 million (+0.42 mill)
Splatoon 2 - 9.83 million (+0.55 mill)
Super Mario Party - 8.89 million (+1.30 mill)
Luigi's Mansion 3 - 6.00 million (NEW)
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 5.77 million (+1.18 mill)



Around the Network
AlbiNecroxz said:

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m
  • Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW
  • Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m
  • Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW
  • Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m
  • Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows

Luigi's mansion 2/darkmoon sold 6.0m lifetime, i would expect the series to grow on the switch but 8.7m in two months is extremely optimistic. I would expect 6.5m which is still incredible to outsell darkmoon in two months. 10 million lifetime is definately going to happen for Luigi. I'd also be surprised if ring fit breaks 5m for the quarter, the accessory has made it an expensive purchase although i'm sure nintendo were caught out by it's sucess.



I'm gonna be optimistic and say 11.5m



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

RolStoppable said:
AlbiNecroxz said:

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m
  • Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW
  • Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m
  • Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW
  • Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m
  • Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows

Quite a few optimistic predictions you have there. MK8D, SSBU, SMO, BotW and Let's Go are all older games where you overestimate their legs. Luigi's Mansion 3 is at least a couple of millions too high and Ring Fit Adventure is the worst offender because it should have 2.0-2.5m at most. On the other hand, Sword/Shield seems a bit too low while Super Mario Party is definitely too low. SMP did 1.2m in the first half of this fiscal year, so 0.6m per quarter; its holiday quarter isn't going to be worse than that.

Splatoon 2, NSMBU and SMM2 look okay, although I'd expect NSMBU to do better than SMM2.

Yeah maybe you're right about RFA and LM3, but I don't think RFA will be at max 2.5m, I'd say 4m at bare minimum. LM3 maybe 6.5m

Metroid33slayer said:
AlbiNecroxz said:

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m
  • Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW
  • Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m
  • Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW
  • Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m
  • Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows

Luigi's mansion 2/darkmoon sold 6.0m lifetime, i would expect the series to grow on the switch but 8.7m in two months is extremely optimistic. I would expect 6.5m which is still incredible to outsell darkmoon in two months. 10 million lifetime is definately going to happen for Luigi. I'd also be surprised if ring fit breaks 5m for the quarter, the accessory has made it an expensive purchase although i'm sure nintendo were caught out by it's sucess.

Maybe too high for Luigi, I'm blind cause I see it as a huge million seller but that doesn't mean it will sell so much, I leave my original prediction so I could laugh tomorrow with the actual results haha



Zanark best Inazuma Eleven pg

Good, so I think they'll barely make out with the 11M threshold because of the oversupplied Switch Lite.

Anyway, Breath of the Wild sales will surpass anyone's expectations making more than half of what Link's Awakening made during this quarter and possibly better than Mario Odyssey too.

RFA will end up around 3.5M, Luigi's Mansion does 5,5M while Link's Awakening edges it out at 5.75M.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Around the Network
Mar1217 said:
Good, so I think they'll barely make out with the 11M threshold because of the oversupplied Switch Lite.

Anyway, Breath of the Wild sales will surpass anyone's expectations making more than half of what Link's Awakening made during this quarter and possibly better than Mario Odyssey too.

RFA will end up around 3.5M, Luigi's Mansion does 5,5M while Link's Awakening edges it out at 5.75M.

Where are you getting those expectations from?

Most people should be expecting that Breath of the Wild shipped more units in the past quarter than Link's Awakening, so that's the opposite of what you are suggesting. During calendar year 2019, Breath of the Wild has comfortably beaten Super Mario Odyssey every quarter, so I wonder what you've been reading.

BotW progression in 2019: 1.09m, 0.84m, 0.93m.
SMO progression in 2019: 0.68m, 0.50m, 0.44m.

Last edited by RolStoppable - on 29 January 2020

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
Mar1217 said:
Good, so I think they'll barely make out with the 11M threshold because of the oversupplied Switch Lite.

Anyway, Breath of the Wild sales will surpass anyone's expectations making more than half of what Link's Awakening made during this quarter and possibly better than Mario Odyssey too.

RFA will end up around 3.5M, Luigi's Mansion does 5,5M while Link's Awakening edges it out at 5.75M.

Where are you getting those expectations from?

Most people should be expecting that Breath of the Wild shipped more units in the past quarter than Link's Awakening, so that's the opposite of what you are suggesting. During calendar year 2019, Breath of the Wild has comfortably beaten Super Mario Odyssey every quarter, so I wonder what you've been reading.

BotW progression in 2019: 1.09m, 0.84m, 0.93m.
SMO progression in 2019: 0.68m, 0.50m, 0.44m.

1) I'm expecting LA to have shipped 2.5M this quarter so it lines up with what I said "More than half of what LA will do".

2) Mario games sales tend to raise sharply in the holiday period, though you're right BOTW should considerably beat it once again.

Anyway, I simply go with my own belief and trends, so no hard numbers there xD Also I wanna see LA beat LM3 after our last conversation.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

11 million units, give or take.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

My guess is 10 million for the quarter, 17 million in total.

Methodology - Switch is up 13 percent in Q1 and 36 percent in Q2. I'm guessing it will be up at least 20 percent in Q3 YoY. This puts it at 17.38 million. It could be a bit higher than that, but I'm being a bit conservative. The highest I expect it to be would be 18 million if it's up 30 percent. I assume it wont do worse than 20 percent which is why I think 10 million easily. Going with the more conservative number. 11 million is likely. 12 million is the ceiling.

This is all based on information from Nintendo's earning releases.



Visit my site for more

Known as Smashchu in a former life

Well I guess that 11 millions was not so crazy...Nintendo has shipped 17,73 millions this fiscal year, it is 98,5% of their forecast that they have reached within 3 Q only.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary