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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo switch shipment prediction for FY2020 Q3

 

How many million Switch unit Nintendo will have shiped

Less than 9,4... :( 2 8.70%
 
9,4 - 9,8 0 0%
 
9,8 - 10,2 2 8.70%
 
10,2 - 10,6 8 34.78%
 
10,6 - 11 6 26.09%
 
11 - 11,4 4 17.39%
 
11,4 - 11,8 1 4.35%
 
11,8 - 12,2 0 0%
 
12,2 - 12,6 0 0%
 
More !!! 0 0%
 
Total:23
AlbiNecroxz on 29 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
AlbiNecroxz said:

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m
  • Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW
  • Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m
  • Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW
  • Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m
  • Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows

Quite a few optimistic predictions you have there. MK8D, SSBU, SMO, BotW and Let's Go are all older games where you overestimate their legs. Luigi's Mansion 3 is at least a couple of millions too high and Ring Fit Adventure is the worst offender because it should have 2.0-2.5m at most. On the other hand, Sword/Shield seems a bit too low while Super Mario Party is definitely too low. SMP did 1.2m in the first half of this fiscal year, so 0.6m per quarter; its holiday quarter isn't going to be worse than that.

Splatoon 2, NSMBU and SMM2 look okay, although I'd expect NSMBU to do better than SMM2.

Yeah maybe you're right about RFA and LM3, but I don't think RFA will be at max 2.5m, I'd say 4m at bare minimum. LM3 maybe 6.5m

Metroid33slayer said:
AlbiNecroxz said:

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m
  • Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW
  • Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m
  • Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW
  • Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m
  • Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows

Luigi's mansion 2/darkmoon sold 6.0m lifetime, i would expect the series to grow on the switch but 8.7m in two months is extremely optimistic. I would expect 6.5m which is still incredible to outsell darkmoon in two months. 10 million lifetime is definately going to happen for Luigi. I'd also be surprised if ring fit breaks 5m for the quarter, the accessory has made it an expensive purchase although i'm sure nintendo were caught out by it's sucess.

Maybe too high for Luigi, I'm blind cause I see it as a huge million seller but that doesn't mean it will sell so much, I leave my original prediction so I could laugh tomorrow with the actual results haha



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Nautilus on 29 January 2020

11 million units, give or take.



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VideoGameAccountant on 29 January 2020

My guess is 10 million for the quarter, 17 million in total.

Methodology - Switch is up 13 percent in Q1 and 36 percent in Q2. I'm guessing it will be up at least 20 percent in Q3 YoY. This puts it at 17.38 million. It could be a bit higher than that, but I'm being a bit conservative. The highest I expect it to be would be 18 million if it's up 30 percent. I assume it wont do worse than 20 percent which is why I think 10 million easily. Going with the more conservative number. 11 million is likely. 12 million is the ceiling.

This is all based on information from Nintendo's earning releases.



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Amnesia on 30 January 2020

Well I guess that 11 millions was not so crazy...Nintendo has shipped 17,73 millions this fiscal year, it is 98,5% of their forecast that they have reached within 3 Q only.



AlbiNecroxz on 30 January 2020
AlbiNecroxz said:

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m ACTUAL 22.96m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m ACTUAL 17.68m
  • Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m ACTUAL 16.59m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m ACTUAL 16.34m
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW ACTUAL 16.06m
  • Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m ACTUAL 11.76m
  • Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m ACTUAL 9.81m
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW ACTUAL 5.37m
  • Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m ACTUAL 9.12m
  • Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW ACTUAL 2.17m

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m ACTUAL 5.85m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m ACTUAL 5.08m 

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows



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Ryng on 30 January 2020

was expecting over 10 million, almost 11 million is kinda huge.