Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 90 49.18%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 27.32%
 
No, its being overblown 43 23.50%
 
Total:183
SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:

Saw this on resetera....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsSwzVomWhU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBdgAUA0VvA



John Campbell is basically also saying that the US is manipulateing data.
About 1:25 into the video.


There were people that speculated that the reason it was being moved from CDC, to HHS, was because CDC was transparent and open to public.
So you could get insight into data if you wanted, while the same isnt true for the HHS under Trump.
Basically why it was moved from CDC-> HHS was to manipute the data (cook the books).

Thoughts?

I noticed the same thing in the data, the growth in the US data suddenly flattened.

July 12th the USA was up to 132% week over week change.
July 16th it was down 113% week over week change.
July 21st it went under 100% week over week change.
July 27th was down to 93% week over week change.

From June 16th to July 15th the USA has been over 120% week over week change and then all of a sudden it dropped.

Some states have taken some extra measures to stem the recent growth yet historical data suggests that it takes about 2 weeks to peak after total lock down. Italy took 12 days to peak after going into total lock down (76% reduction in mobility), same for Spain (72% reduction in mobility). The UK didn't peak until April 15th with fewer measures while starting their softer lock down March 24th (64% reduction in mobility). This data suggests that the entire USA suddenly peaked again within a week with a few extra measures here and there.

I was waiting for google mobility data to update to get some insight, it's updated to last Saturday (July 25th)
Absolutely nothing to explain the sudden sharp drop in growth.

A total lockdown achieving reaching a peak in 12 days is going from regular mobility to below -60% and residential up over 40%.

The recent data from the USA makes no sense, and the only big change is the move from CDC to HHS handling.
So yep, it looks like USA joined Russia, Iran and Sweden in cooking the books. And no doubt plenty others are manipulating the numbers as well.

There could be another factor aside from the obvious intentional manipulation. They might have reached a certain limit in testing. Numbers can't go up if tests are getting backed up and there is only a fixed number of them to be processed each day. Sure, after a while you will still see increases in numbers via an increased positivity rate but that increase is just way smaller than if you increased testing, which the US has done over the past weeks.

In any way we can be sure that while the numbers are plateauing the actual cases are most likely still going up.



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vivster said:

There could be another factor aside from the obvious intentional manipulation. They might have reached a certain limit in testing. Numbers can't go up if tests are getting backed up and there is only a fixed number of them to be processed each day. Sure, after a while you will still see increases in numbers via an increased positivity rate but that increase is just way smaller than if you increased testing, which the US has done over the past weeks.

In any way we can be sure that while the numbers are plateauing the actual cases are most likely still going up.

That's what I though at first, yet they are actually going down atm

The last 4 weeks compared:

July 22 +71967  July 15 +71670  July 08 +61848  July 01 +51097
July 23 +69116  July 16 +73388  July 09 +61067  July 02 +57236
July 24 +78009  July 17 +74987  July 10 +71787  July 03 +54904
July 25 +67413  July 18 +63259  July 11 +61719  July 04 +45182
July 26 +56130  July 19 +65279  July 12 +58349  July 05 +44530
July 27 +61571  July 20 +62879  July 13 +65488  July 06 +50771
July 28 +64729  July 21 +67140  July 14 +65594  July 07 +55856
Total      468,935                  478,602                   445,852                  359,576

Numbers don't go down when testing limits are reached, they either plateau or still creep up slightly due to the positivity rate increasing.
It could still be reduced testing, I'm not tracking the actual tests per day. It looks like the USA is doing a bit over 800K tests a day currently.

This suggests both a (slight) decline in testing yet also a decline in positivity rate
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

Wait and see how it develops. It's hard to believe in coincidences, different reporting method coinciding with a decline in reported cases. However the change is still pretty small and reported deaths seem unaffected so far, a new high yesterday 1245, highest since May 27th.



vivster said:
SvennoJ said:

I noticed the same thing in the data, the growth in the US data suddenly flattened.

July 12th the USA was up to 132% week over week change.
July 16th it was down 113% week over week change.
July 21st it went under 100% week over week change.
July 27th was down to 93% week over week change.

From June 16th to July 15th the USA has been over 120% week over week change and then all of a sudden it dropped.

Some states have taken some extra measures to stem the recent growth yet historical data suggests that it takes about 2 weeks to peak after total lock down. Italy took 12 days to peak after going into total lock down (76% reduction in mobility), same for Spain (72% reduction in mobility). The UK didn't peak until April 15th with fewer measures while starting their softer lock down March 24th (64% reduction in mobility). This data suggests that the entire USA suddenly peaked again within a week with a few extra measures here and there.

I was waiting for google mobility data to update to get some insight, it's updated to last Saturday (July 25th)
Absolutely nothing to explain the sudden sharp drop in growth.

A total lockdown achieving reaching a peak in 12 days is going from regular mobility to below -60% and residential up over 40%.

The recent data from the USA makes no sense, and the only big change is the move from CDC to HHS handling.
So yep, it looks like USA joined Russia, Iran and Sweden in cooking the books. And no doubt plenty others are manipulating the numbers as well.

There could be another factor aside from the obvious intentional manipulation. They might have reached a certain limit in testing. Numbers can't go up if tests are getting backed up and there is only a fixed number of them to be processed each day. Sure, after a while you will still see increases in numbers via an increased positivity rate but that increase is just way smaller than if you increased testing, which the US has done over the past weeks.

In any way we can be sure that while the numbers are plateauing the actual cases are most likely still going up.

I wont rule it out... I just wouldn't put it past Trump to have them fix the numbers, so things do look as bad, so as to justify doing something which doesnt make sense if numbers are on the rise. Ei. Back to school.

The Jeff Hester video is the damning one.
Supposedly they more or less left the data from the blue stats alone, and only worked the data from red states.



JRPGfan said:

I wont rule it out... I just wouldn't put it past Trump to have them fix the numbers, so things do look as bad, so as to justify doing something which doesnt make sense if numbers are on the rise. Ei. Back to school.

The Jeff Hester video is the damning one.
Supposedly they more or less left the data from the blue stats alone, and only worked the data from red states.

Very damning indeed. That deserves a screenshot for those not wanting to watch the video

If that's not a giant red flag I don't know what is...



Last edited by SvennoJ - on 29 July 2020

Barozi said:

2,802 positive cases (+25.3%) with 532k tests (+5.8%).

On average there were 400 positive cases a day (or 467 if you discard Sunday).

250 in ICU (+0.8%)

Not a good week. Sadly, our most populous state also has the highest amount of cases per capita.

3,774 positive cases (+34.7%) with 564k tests (+6.0%).

On average there were 539 positive cases a day (or 629 if you discard Sunday).

261 in ICU (+4.4%)

2nd wave in full force. Multiple smaller outbreaks in different regions of Germany.



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Here is a funny thing, people in the US believe that 9% of the population or 30 million have died from Covid with 65 million infected so 50% lethality rate. Talk about a media pandemic.

https://www.kekstcnc.com/media/2793/kekstcnc_research_covid-19_opinion_tracker_wave-4.pdf

CDC puts COVID deaths between 58,749 and 135,579 (excluding or including influenza co-infections) in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm



numberwang said:

Here is a funny thing, people in the US believe that 9% of the population or 30 million have died from Covid with 65 million infected so 50% lethality rate. Talk about a media pandemic.

https://www.kekstcnc.com/media/2793/kekstcnc_research_covid-19_opinion_tracker_wave-4.pdf

CDC puts COVID deaths between 58,749 and 135,579 (excluding or including influenza co-infections) in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm    *CDC always lagged with data. John hopkins more reliable imo.

worldometers.info has the USA at 153,230 (currently).
I wouldnt be surprised if the real number was actually like 200,000+.
(24 states, have odd ways of reporting deaths due to covid19, and only report if they die at a hospital and have been tested positive before hand)

How in the hell, could people (9%) believe it was 33-34m deaths in the US..... thats nuts.
Do they not ever both to look at the news? how could you be so misinformed?

20% of americans, think infections are over 20 times higher than confirmed cases.
Now CDC did say that potentially theres 5-10x as many actual infected, as the ones confirmed.
(probably closer to the x5 number, than the 10)

However thats still nuts too.... 20% of americans?
Im not even surprised anymore.
38% of americans still support Donal Trump and how hes handled the coronavirus outbreak, and think hes doing a fine job of it.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 29 July 2020

vivster said:
I'm happy about the move. Not too long ago people argued that the data wasn't doctored and I had to say that it's being manipulated on an individual local level, which was definitely the case, be incompetence or malice.

But now that they streamlined the process I can just point my finger and say: "Yep, they're manipulating the data on a national level." Can't wait to see where the Republican cult members will point their fingers next, now that the evil CDC can't manipulate all of the numbers for that hoax.

Who gives a fuck?  You think China and Russia aren't fudging their numbers? C'mon man, the USA has every right to engage in disinformation

when it comes down to the Covid-19 numbers. For Christ sakes.



Nighthawk117 said:
vivster said:
I'm happy about the move. Not too long ago people argued that the data wasn't doctored and I had to say that it's being manipulated on an individual local level, which was definitely the case, be incompetence or malice.

But now that they streamlined the process I can just point my finger and say: "Yep, they're manipulating the data on a national level." Can't wait to see where the Republican cult members will point their fingers next, now that the evil CDC can't manipulate all of the numbers for that hoax.

Who gives a fuck?  You think China and Russia aren't fudging their numbers? C'mon man, the USA has every right to engage in disinformation

when it comes down to the Covid-19 numbers. For Christ sakes.

Its hideing the truth from your own population (people) though.
Right when theres the matter of sending kids back to school or not.

Shouldn't it be valued more, that your honest to your own people, than makeing up BS numbers as disinformation to china?
What is even the point, of trying to fool china?

How do the american people react when the whitehouse lies about matters of health & life and death,
when asking them to put their lives & those of loved onces at risk?  Shouldn't you be honest about such matters to your own people?

Plus if theres a list about doing bad things, and china and russia are on it...... surely the best take, would be to not be on such a list?
Instead of going "other bad places do it too".

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 29 July 2020

Nighthawk117 said:

the USA has every right to engage in disinformation when it comes down to the Covid-19 numbers.

the fuck...