Got my booster shot the other day. *shrugs* Same consequence as the other two shots: some soreness at the injection site mainly for the first 24 hours and that's really been all, though I will say that I also experienced a very small amount of extra tiredness for much of the following day. Today I'm feeling totally back to normal. So no big, in other words, especially if you're young enough to be using VGC.

This shot was MUCH easier to get than my first two. I had to chase down the first one back in March and got my second in April more easily, through my employer, but had to schedule an appointment. The booster I got through my employer over my lunch break on a whim. Easy peasy.

Data from the past weeks in Denmark suggest that the fully vaccinated are three times less likely to be infected than the unvaccinated (~ 67% efficacy), and the previously infected six times less likely than the unvaccinated (~ 84% efficacy). Vaccination plus previous infection provides a whopping 30 times reduction in risk (~ 97% efficacy). This is vs. testing positive only, so no data on symptomatic illness or hospitalizations yet.

Contrary to my fears, that would suggest protection from previous infection is holding out well despite the cooler temperatures that would have dried out nasal mucosae and decreased the levels of IgA in the nose. It also suggests the percentage of previously infected in Eastern Europe was likely quite a bit lower than needed for herd immunity, perhaps no more than 50% before this wave.

Yet, governments are pushing for boosters to everyone whether if they had covid19 in the past or not. Absolute insanity. 

Weekly update, Europe remains the main driving force in the pandemic for now

In total 3.74 million cases were reported last week (up from 3.36 million) to a total of 256,926,903
Also another 51,636 deaths were reported (slightly up from 50,300) to a total of 5,155,335

Europe continues up, USA is starting to go up again as well. Europe currently represents 65% of new cases and 54% of reported deaths.

The continents

Europe reported 2.19 million new cases (up from 1.90 million) and 27,336 more deaths (up from 25,833)
North America reported 750K new cases (up from 624K) and 10,164 more deaths (10,960 last week)
Asia reported 627K new cases (down from 650K) and 10,380 more deaths (9,718 last week)
South America reported 131K new cases (down from 145K) and 2,560 more deaths (down from 2,826)
Africa reported 23.6K new cases (down from 34.0K) and 984 deaths (1,193 last week)
Oceania reported 11.9K new cases (slightly down from 12.3K) and 151 deaths (101 last week)

Comparing current deaths / reported cases with last year before vaccines

Europe 1.25% infected death ratio, November 2020 2.0% infected death ratio
Oceania 1.27% infected death ratio, August 2020 5.8% infected death ratio
North America 1.36% infected death ratio, October 2020 2.9% infected death ratio
Asia 1.66% infected death ratio, September 2020, 1.5% infected death ratio
South America 1.95% infected death ratio, October 2020 3.3% infected death ratio
Africa 4.17% infected death ratio, November 2020 2.5% infected death ratio

What is interesting is that in the least vaccinated places (Asia 46% and Africa 7%) the overall death rate has gone up. The mutations seem to be more deadly. Luckily the vaccines still work against the current new strains.

Vaccines are definitely helping. The vast majority of deaths are also under the non vaccinated

Taking into account what @haxxiy said, unvaccinated representing 3x more infections, the vaccines still reduce death rate to 40% of non vaccinated (after getting infected) With 66% less chance to get infected, you get to 13% of the deaths coming from non vaccinated compared to vaccinated.

How many lives are potentially saved by the vaccines?
At worst (taking the 1.66x increase of Africa into account) Europe would currently have 73K deaths weekly, over 45K lives spared weekly in Europe.

Corners of the world

USA reported 687K new cases (up from 554K) and 8,165 more deaths (8,260 last week)
India reported 80.9K new cases (up from 70.5K) and 2,189 more deaths (down from 2,625)
Brazil reported 62.4K new cases (down from 78.5K) and 1,476 more deaths (down from 1,823)
Iran reported 42.3K new cases (down from 53.8K) and 816 death (865 last week)
South Korea reported 18.4K new cases (up from 15.3K) and 164 deaths (115 last week)
Canada reported 18.1K new cases (up from 16.7K) and 195 deaths (154 last week)
Australia reported 8,590 new cases (down from 9,635) and 60 deaths (78 last week)
South Africa reported 2,917 new cases (up from 1,978) and 93 deaths (174 last week)
Japan reported 1,125 new cases (down from 1,364) and 19 deaths (27 last week)

Europe in detail

All going up, too many people thinking the pandemic is over already, forgetting vaccines reduce the chance to get infected, not eliminate it.
However last November Europe was up to 34K deaths weekly with a peak of 1.9 million infections weekly, currently it's 27K deaths with 2.2 million infections weekly.

Problem is, the pandemic rages on among the non-vaccinated while countries allow the infection rates to soar just looking at hospitalization rates. (keeping them the same) This makes it seem the vaccines are far less effective than they really are.

Global vaccination rate is now 41.41% (+1.00%)

Europe 56.78% (+0.72%)
South America 55.60% (+1.28%)
North America 53.75% (+0.66%)
Oceania 53.18% (+1.66%)
Asia 46.10% (+1.39%)
Africa 6.84% (+0.47%)

While Africa is still far behind, we're starting to vaccinate 6 to 11 year olds.
Meanwhile up to 10% of doses are wasted by people refusing to get the vaccine
https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/10-per-cent-of-covid-19-vaccine-doses-wasted-or-expired-alberta-health-1.5674144
Alberta is also one of the lowest vaccinated provinces in Canada, with the highest recent outbreak which came very close to having to deny healthcare
https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/at-the-very-edge-of-the-cliff-ama-says-triage-already-happening-in-alberta-hospitals-1.5599795

It's so annoying hearing antivaxers saying it not there fault that icu numbers are high when in ireland they are taking up over 60% of the icu beds being used for covid patients.

Weekly update. Cases continue to rise in Europe while a new potentially more infectious variant has emerged in South Africa.

In total 3.94 million new cases were reported last week (up from 3.74 million) to a total of 260,868,783
Also another 51,209 more deaths were reported last week (51,636 last week) to a total of 5,206,544

Europe continues to climb, USA is rising as well but counts have dropped off for Thanksgiving.

The continents

Europe reported 2.69 million new cases (up from 2.19 million) and 27,107 more deaths (27,336 last week)
Asia reported 635K new cases (slightly up from 627K) and 9,908 more deaths (slightly down from 10,380)
North America reported 594K new cases (down from 750K) and 10,115 more deaths (10,164 last week)
South America reported 135k new cases (131K last week) and 2,737 more deaths (2,560 last week)
Africa reported 52.9K new cases (up from 23.6K) and 1,224 more deaths (984 last week)
Oceania reported 17.6K new cases (up from 11.9K) and 118 deaths (151 last week)

Corners of the world

USA reported 529K new cases (down from 687K) and 8,040 more deaths (8,165 last week)
India reported 68.2K new cases (down from 80.9K) and 2,851 more deaths (up from 2,189)
Brazil reported 64.3K new cases (slightly up from 62.4K) and 1,589 more deaths (slightly up from 1,476)
Iran reported 32.5K new cases (down from 42.3K) and 728 deaths (816 last week)
South Africa reported 27.0K new cases (up from 2,917) and 221 deaths (93 last week)
South Korea reported 23.8K new cases (up from 18.4K) and 225 deaths (164 last week)
Canada reported 19.7K new cases (up from 18.1K) and 137 deaths (195 last week)
Australia reported 9,653 new cases (up from 8,590) and 52 deaths (60 last week)
Japan reported 760 new cases (down from 1,125) and 11 deaths (19 last week)

Europe in detail


Ukraine and Russia are heading back down, a few other countries are stabilizing, France and Spain are rising fast.
Germany has broken the record highs, ahead of France and UK's previous peaks.

Global vaccination rate is now 42.48% (+1.07%)

Europe 57.56% (+0.78%)
South America 56.26% (+0.66%)
North America 54.45% (+0.70%)
Oceania 54.36% (+1.18%)
Asia 47.54% (+1.44%)
Africa 7.13% (+0.29%)

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/what-is-this-new-coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-1.5682375

South African scientists identified a new version of the coronavirus this week that they say is behind a recent spike in COVID-19 infections in Gauteng, the country's most populous province. It's unclear where the new variant first emerged, but scientists in South Africa first alerted the World Health Organization and it has now been seen in travellers to Belgium, Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel.

Health Minister Joe Phaahla said the variant was linked to an "exponential rise" of cases in the last few days, although experts are still trying to determine if the new variant is actually responsible.

Cases are shooting up in Belgium and South Korea as well. Israel is at its lowest but maybe lower reporting in the last few days, sudden drop.

In a statement on Friday, the WHO designated it as a "variant of concern," naming it "omicron" after a letter in the Greek alphabet.

After convening a group of experts to assess the data, the U.N. health agency said that "preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant," as compared to other variants.

"The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa," the WHO said.


Locally cases are starting to rise again as well. We kept the kids home from school yesterday as more cases are getting detected at their school. An outbreak was reported on Tuesday. However the close contact reporting is a joke, all the close contacts didn't get notified until after going to school another day. So far it stands at 7 confirmed cases among the kids, 2 among the staff.

Locally 72% of newly reported cases are among the not fully vaccinated (Another 10% infected with first dose)
Ontario is now 75.6% fully vaccinated.

Excess mortality in the UK from the ONS. Last winter doesn't look that bad when you look at it this way. Some ~15,000 more excess winter deaths than the 2017 - 2018 flu?

Also interesting that the years before the 1957 and 1968 flu pandemics had such a noticeable dip in mortality, same as 2018 - 2019.

As I mentioned before, if you had a nasty viral infection, whatever that caused it, don't expect to feel good immediately in the next week. That being said...

Long Covid... or the nocebo effect?

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2785832

The results of this cross-sectional analysis of a large, population-based French cohort suggest that physical symptoms persisting 10 to 12 months after the COVID-19 pandemic first wave may be associated more with the belief in having experienced COVID-19 infection than with actually being infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The only exception was anosmia, which was 4 times more prevalent in people who actually had Covid.

Stress can cause a lot of symptoms. Long Covid or Long Pandemic Stress, not surprising symptoms overlap. Which makes it worse as you can get 'Long Covid' without getting infected, simply from the stress around the whole long ongoing situation.

Stress and anxiety can cause high blood pressure, which can cause all kinds of other symptoms. Stress affects sleep patterns
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/chronic-stress-can-lead-to-higher-blood-pressure-heres-how-to-reduce-it

Replace job stress with pandemic stress and
https://www.webmd.com/hypertension-high-blood-pressure/news/20190429/job-stress-poor-sleep-hypertension-a-deadly-trio

In a study of nearly 2,000 workers with high blood pressure who were followed for almost 18 years, those who reported having both a stressful job and poor sleep were three times more likely to die from heart disease than those who slept well and didn't have a trying job, the investigators found.



It doesn't really matter if you get Covid or not to still get long term effects from the pandemic. Countries keep managing the pandemic poorly with mixed messaging and letting cases rise until full lock downs are needed again. Then on top scare everyone with Omicron, add knee jerk reactions to cancel flights (too late, it's already detected all over the world)

Imo it would be better to find a stable state people can get used to instead of lock down -> re-opening -> lock down, masks, no masks, masks again. Humans are creatures of habit, changes in routine and uncertainty causes more stress, as well as seeing cases rise rapidly again and again.

Hopefully things settle down next year, it's still going to be a rough winter first.

For sure psychogenic suffering is still suffering, with real consequences to both body and mind. This wasn't intended to be seen as dismissive.

But there might be still a real problem of people that might come to suffer from long-term symptoms simply because they expect that to be a common occurrence. Not to mention a lot of post-traumatic stress because most overestimate their personal chances of dying from Covid by orders of magnitude.

All that fear has consequences. So now instead of going like "well, maybe we SHOULD vaccinate those African peoples with HIV!" (assuming Omicron isn't zoonotic - it has a *lot* of markers found in zoonotic SARS-CoV-2 strains) , we have borders being shut, more uncertainty and panic in the media, third doses for healthy young people, etc.