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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Amnesia said:
Hiku said:

What a surprise. Who could have seen this coming when taking advice from a guy that coughed straight into his hands during a Covid safety press conference.

(Before someone says "It takes time to change your habits" like Trumpstyle did before, he's a lifelong career virologist. He's been well aware that even the seasonal flu kills ppl annually, and clearly doesn't give a damn to change his habits for the past 40+ years. Not to mention we learned to not cough into our hands in kindergarden as well.)

Do you have some basic notion with mathematics ? Do you know that if you increase the amount of tests, you will push higher the graphics of cases/day ?

Cases which are for 80-90% asymptomatic person not even transmitter.

Here are the 2 waves in Sweden for DEATH this time, Sweden which has the weakest 2nd wave of Europe among every big western countries (>10 million).

Also the country which has the weakest restriction in Europe.

And now here is the country of western Europe who has the most intensive restriction of the continent (masks is mandatory EVERYWHERE except in your home)

But do not worry, you have elected Biden so soon you will know in USA the Italian restriction style. You have elected the COVID president.

What's the average age in Italy and Sweden?

What's the percentage of people above 70 in Italy and Sweden who live in nursing homes instead of living at home?

What's the percentage of Multi-Generation homes in Italy and Sweden? Where even the 30 years old son still lives with his parents/grandparents?

Thx for the answers

If the USA would have the same percentage of people above 70 and the same living conditions as Italy has, they would probably have above 500k deaths already.



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To leave the cherry picking out of it, here's a list of how the European countries I'm tracking did, comparing the waves


Comparing 7-day averages of the peaks, cases and deaths
* Can still change, not certain yet
Sorted by population

Russia: 10,982 (May 12th) -> 25,087 (Nov 27th*), 178 (June 3rd) -> 464 (Nov 27th*)
Germany: 5,837 (Apr 2nd) -> 18,780 (Nov 13th), 239 (Apr 18th) -> 299 (Nov 27th*)
UK: 4,999 (Apr 14th) -> 25,331 (Nov 16th), 943 (Apr 14th) -> 467 (Nov 27th*)
France: 4,537 (Apr 1st) -> 56,377 (Nov 7th), 975 (Apr 8th) -> 667 (Nov 19th)
Italy: 5,646 (May 26th) -> 35,074 (Nov16th), 809 (Apr 2nd) -> 730 (Nov 27th*)
Spain: 8,849 (Mar 20th) -> 19,802 (Oct 27th), 898 (Apr 3rd) -> 292 (Nov 27th*)
Ukraine: 13,617 (Nov 27th*), 201 (Nov 24th*)
Poland: 25,611 (Nov 11th), 506 (Nov 25th*)
Netherlands: 1,120 (Apr 14th) -> 10,018 (Oct 31st), 154 (Apr 8th) -> 83 (Nov 9th)
Belgium: 1.453 (Apr 15th) -> 17,802 (Oct 31st), 286 (Apr 14th) -> 205 (Nov 11th)
Sweden: 1,089 (Jun 18th) -> 5,089 (Nov 25th*), 98 (Apr 17th) -> 32 (Nov 18th*)
Austria: 603 (Apr 2nd) -> 7,295 (Nov 14th), 22 (Apr 10th) -> 95 (Nov 27th*)
Switzerland: 1,112 (March 25th) -> 8,238 (Nov 8th), 58 (Apr 6th) -> 98 (Nov 23rd)
Denmark: 328 (Apr 8th), -> 1,223 (Nov 21st), 17 (Apr 7th) -> 6 (Nov 26th)
Norway 271 (March 29th) -> 609 (Nov 18th), 9 (Apr 8th) -> 3 (Nov 26th*)
Ireland: 955 (Apr 16th) -> 1,168 (Oct 21st), 69 (Apr 25th) -> 6 (Nov 23rd)

I see all countries above Sweden, except Russia and Germany, with lower 2nd wave death peaks.
Ireland has the best improvement comparing the waves

Who gets it and treatment options have changed which mostly explains the lower death rates.
That doesn't change the fact that another 34,407 people died from Covid-19 last week in Europe.



SvennoJ said:

To leave the cherry picking out of it, here's a list of how the European countries I'm tracking did, comparing the waves


Comparing 7-day averages of the peaks, cases and deaths
* Can still change, not certain yet
Sorted by population

Russia: 10,982 (May 12th) -> 25,087 (Nov 27th*), 178 (June 3rd) -> 464 (Nov 27th*)
Germany: 5,837 (Apr 2nd) -> 18,780 (Nov 13th), 239 (Apr 18th) -> 299 (Nov 27th*)
UK: 4,999 (Apr 14th) -> 25,331 (Nov 16th), 943 (Apr 14th) -> 467 (Nov 27th*)
France: 4,537 (Apr 1st) -> 56,377 (Nov 7th), 975 (Apr 8th) -> 667 (Nov 19th)
Italy: 5,646 (May 26th) -> 35,074 (Nov16th), 809 (Apr 2nd) -> 730 (Nov 27th*)
Spain: 8,849 (Mar 20th) -> 19,802 (Oct 27th), 898 (Apr 3rd) -> 292 (Nov 27th*)
Ukraine: 13,617 (Nov 27th*), 201 (Nov 24th*)
Poland: 25,611 (Nov 11th), 506 (Nov 25th*)
Netherlands: 1,120 (Apr 14th) -> 10,018 (Oct 31st), 154 (Apr 8th) -> 83 (Nov 9th)
Belgium: 1.453 (Apr 15th) -> 17,802 (Oct 31st), 286 (Apr 14th) -> 205 (Nov 11th)
Sweden: 1,089 (Jun 18th) -> 5,089 (Nov 25th*), 98 (Apr 17th) -> 32 (Nov 18th*)
Austria: 603 (Apr 2nd) -> 7,295 (Nov 14th), 22 (Apr 10th) -> 95 (Nov 27th*)
Switzerland: 1,112 (March 25th) -> 8,238 (Nov 8th), 58 (Apr 6th) -> 98 (Nov 23rd)
Denmark: 328 (Apr 8th), -> 1,223 (Nov 21st), 17 (Apr 7th) -> 6 (Nov 26th)
Norway 271 (March 29th) -> 609 (Nov 18th), 9 (Apr 8th) -> 3 (Nov 26th*)
Ireland: 955 (Apr 16th) -> 1,168 (Oct 21st), 69 (Apr 25th) -> 6 (Nov 23rd)

I see all countries above Sweden, except Russia and Germany, with lower 2nd wave death peaks.
Ireland has the best improvement comparing the waves

Who gets it and treatment options have changed which mostly explains the lower death rates.
That doesn't change the fact that another 34,407 people died from Covid-19 last week in Europe.

And if we Germans wouldn't love to send our parents in nursing homes we would also do worse.

These comparisons are all bad because of completely different living conditions in every country



crissindahouse said:
Amnesia said:

Do you have some basic notion with mathematics ? Do you know that if you increase the amount of tests, you will push higher the graphics of cases/day ?

Cases which are for 80-90% asymptomatic person not even transmitter.

Here are the 2 waves in Sweden for DEATH this time, Sweden which has the weakest 2nd wave of Europe among every big western countries (>10 million).

Also the country which has the weakest restriction in Europe.

And now here is the country of western Europe who has the most intensive restriction of the continent (masks is mandatory EVERYWHERE except in your home)

But do not worry, you have elected Biden so soon you will know in USA the Italian restriction style. You have elected the COVID president.

What's the average age in Italy and Sweden?

What's the percentage of people above 70 in Italy and Sweden who live in nursing homes instead of living at home?

What's the percentage of Multi-Generation homes in Italy and Sweden? Where even the 30 years old son still lives with his parents/grandparents?

Thx for the answers

If the USA would have the same percentage of people above 70 and the same living conditions as Italy has, they would probably have above 500k deaths already.

Oh you can do these researches also yourself, I am not payed by you to make researches as far as I know. I had searched these info months ago so I have seen they are not pushing to the direction you wish they would do. But I let you search for it.



crissindahouse said:

And if we Germans wouldn't love to send our parents in nursing homes we would also do worse.

These comparisons are all bad because of completely different living conditions in every country

You can still compare waves per country, instead of comparing directly between countries

Russia: 2.28x cases peak, 2.61x death peak
Germany: 3.22x cases peak, 1.25x death peak
UK: 5.07x cases peak, 0.50x death peak
France: 12.42x cases peak, 0.68x death peak
Italy: 6.21x cases peak, 0.90x death peak
Spain: 2.24x cases peak, 0.33x death peak
Netherlands: 8.94x cases peak, 0.54x death peak
Belgium: 12.25x cases peak, 0.72 death peak
Sweden: 4.67x cases peak, 0.33x death peak
Austria: 12.10x cases peak, 4.32x death peak
Switzerland: 7.41x cases peak, 1.69x death peak
Denmark: 3.73x cases peak, 0.35x death peak
Norway 2.25x cases peak, 0.33x death peak
Ireland: 1.22x cases peak, 0.09x death peak

You expect cases to be up, much better testing and you expect deaths to be way down, experience, better treatment, the at risk know to stay safe

Sweden matches Spain (so far) for change between peaks.
Austria has made the biggest mess of the second wave, while Ireland handled it best.



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Weekly update.

Cases are slightly down this week, maybe a peak, maybe just the Thanksgiving effect (big dip in USA)
4.07 million new cases were reported this week (down from 4.16 million) to a total of 61,967,726
71,478 more deaths were reported this week (up from 68,249) to a total of 1,448,293

Europe is heading back down, deaths might have peaked, should be lower next week
The USA had a dip in testing and reporting due to Thanksgiving

The continents

Europe reported 1.50 million new cases (down from 1.74 million) and 34,407 more deaths (up from 32,369)
North America reported 1.31 million new cases (up from 1.30 million) and 15,848 more deaths (up from 14,364)
Asia reported 807K new cases (up from 671K) and 11,960 more deaths (up from 11,543)
South America reported 361K new cases (up from 351K) and 7,100 more deaths (down from 7,668)
Africa reported 93.7K new cases (up from 95.3K) and 2,156 more deaths (down from 2,292)
Oceania reported 1.28K new cases (down from 1.39K) and 10 deaths

Corners of the world

USA reported 1.18 million new cases (down from 1.21 million) and 10,741 more deaths (up from 10,313)
India reported 301K new cases (up from 277K) and 3,474 more deaths (down from 3,539)
Brazl reported 218K new cases (up from 201K) and 3,336 more deaths (down from 3,716)
Iran reported 94.0K new cases (up from 90.1K) and 3,199 more deaths (down from 3,314)

Canada reported 38.3K new cases (up from 33.4K) and 560 deaths (506 last week)
South Africa reported 19.2K new cases (up from 15.8K) and 619 deaths (606 last week)
Japan reported 14.2K new cases (up from 12.0K) and 108 deaths (76 last week)
South Korea reported 2.87K new cases (up from 1.88K) and 15 deaths (13 last week)

Australia remains (nearly) Covid-19 free, no deaths, active cases are dwindling

Europe in detail

Russia and the Ukraine are still rising, the rest has all stabilized or are declining.



Hiku said:
Amnesia said:

Do you have some basic notion with mathematics ? Do you know that if you increase the amount of tests, you will push higher the graphics of cases/day ?

If you're going to suggest that Sweden increased testing by ~6000% between mid Sep - Nov for some reason other than the fact that more people got infected (which leads to more testing and hospitalization) then you should back your claim up first.

Amnesia said:

Cases which are for 80-90% asymptomatic person not even transmitter.

Here are the 2 waves in Sweden for DEATH this time, Sweden which has the weakest 2nd wave of Europe among every big western countries (>10 million).

Also the country which has the weakest restriction in Europe.

And now here is the country of western Europe who has the most intensive restriction of the continent (masks is mandatory EVERYWHERE except in your home)

You're comparing Sweden to Italy, which has many notable differences including the fact that Italy is still one of the worlds most popular travel destinations (even with the 2019 decline) for sightseeing, instead of Norway, Denmark and Finland, which are near identical to Sweden are are doing much much better, but don't count because they have a population of 5M instead of 10m? And that makes Italy with their 60M population a better comparison...?

Also, only speaking of the severity of the restrictions implemented is ignoring why those restrictions were implemented in the first place. Originally Italy got hit extremely hard, so they took drastic measures and flattened the curve, unlike Sweden and USA, etc.

But they haven't had many restrictions in place since things calmed down, until they repeated the same mistake again, and only did it after it was too late. The outdoor mask mandate came on October 8, after cases had spiked up again and were already near their all time high during the first wave: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54454450 

Amnesia said:

But do not worry, you have elected Biden so soon you will know in USA the Italian restriction style. You have elected the COVID president.

You seem more eager to smack talk than thinking things through, or you would have checked my profile before assuming I'm from USA.

But yeah, we will soon know USA and Italy's style here in Sweden thanks to us electing Biden.
I guess that's why Trump had no evidence to present in court regarding the election fraud allegations, because it happened in Sweden.

Lol...You got me



Italy has six times the population of Sweden, but the geographical size is only about 65% of Sweden, leading to much more densely populated regions. In addition, Italy is well known for its housing situation, multi-generation homes are the norm across large parts of the countryside, annulling any advantage one might get in rural areas compared to cities. Sweden has one of the highest rates of single-person households on the globe.



Amnesia said:
crissindahouse said:

What's the average age in Italy and Sweden?

What's the percentage of people above 70 in Italy and Sweden who live in nursing homes instead of living at home?

What's the percentage of Multi-Generation homes in Italy and Sweden? Where even the 30 years old son still lives with his parents/grandparents?

Thx for the answers

If the USA would have the same percentage of people above 70 and the same living conditions as Italy has, they would probably have above 500k deaths already.

Oh you can do these researches also yourself, I am not payed by you to make researches as far as I know. I had searched these info months ago so I have seen they are not pushing to the direction you wish they would do. But I let you search for it.

Doesn't sound right to me what you researched. Italy is known to have a big percentage of adults even in the 30s to live with their parents and that number even grew since the financial crisis. Sweden is known in Europe to have a high percentage of even young adults to live alone.

Same how grandparents in Italy take care of their grandchilds while their childs are working/shopping/whatever. 

But if you think that Italy wouldn't have much better or Sweden much worse numbers with these conditions swapped it's up to you I guess.

In my head at least someone can't infect the parents or grandparents the days he/she doesn't have contact with them



With vaccines approaching, the pressure is mounting to come up with a strategy for distribution.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/what-happens-if-someone-refuses-vaccination-ethicists-urge-clarity-on-covid-19-rollout-1.5208824

For now, four key groups have been given priority to receive the vaccine, those at risk of severe illness and death (such as the elderly or those with pre-existing conditions), essential workers most likely to transmit the disease (such as health-care workers), those at risk who live in communities that could suffer disproportionate consequences (such as isolated Indigenous communities), and other workers providing services that contribute to “the functioning of society.”

But after those groups, who comes next?

Research suggests racialized Canadians are at higher risk than white Canadians of having pre-existing conditions that could put them at risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19. Employers whose businesses have been sidelined due to COVID-19 will also be among those most keen to get vaccinated.

Whatever happens, there will inevitably be a period of time in 2021 when the limited supply of vaccines will create a society of haves and have-nots. Those months will be challenging, says Alison Thompson, an ethicist with the University of Toronto. “This is very concerning because then we have a society that is really a two-tiered society that is based on some kind of biological grounds,” she said.

CAN YOU REFUSE THE VACCINE?

It’s impossible for anyone to be forced to take the COVID-19 vaccine once it’s available. But there could be real-life consequences to refusal.

“People that don't want the vaccine, we all know, have an absolute right not to have it. I mean, it is their bodies without question,” Bowman said. "But that is an ethical concern because what will likely happen to people within that group is more and more opportunities may slowly be shut off to them.”

To make matters trickier, the vaccine will not be immediately available for certain groups. Pregnant women and children, who are not involved in clinical trials of the experimental vaccines, will be excluded from vaccination until more clinical trial data is available.

This exemption may be inconvenient, but it’s standard in these sorts of trials for safety reasons, Thompson said.

“Pregnant women are often excluded from clinical trials on many pharmaceutical products, including vaccines, because of the risk to the fetus that she carries and her own health,” she said.

We need to think very carefully about how we use people's immune status to grant them access to employment and travel and things like that


It looks like multiple vaccines will be available, however you won't get to choose which one you get.