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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

chakkra said:
SvennoJ said:

Making vaccine candidates is not that hard, there are plenty already being tested
https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Production is also already started before results
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/astrazeneca-vaccine-supply-eu/

Commenting on the development of the vaccine, AstraZeneca said: “AstraZeneca recognises that the vaccine may not work but is committed to progressing the clinical programme with speed and scaling up manufacturing at risk.”

The tricky part is not to make people sick with a vaccine while building up effective anti bodies. The strain needs to be similar enough but not too close so people actually get sick. It's impossible to tell how much of a viral load each person can safely handle while still have enough to build up lasting effective immunity, so you need something that is not full blown sars-cov-2 but presents something that looks similar enough to your immune system.

Normally it takes years to test vaccine candidates for long term effects. Imagine giving everyone the same vaccine that has a little side effect to cause infertility in a couple years and you have Children of men! Luckily that's still in the realm of sci-fi and having lots of different vaccine candidates reduces the risk of messing up everyone. It's still a gamble to launch a vaccine without knowing what it can do in 10 years, but a better gamble than letting it go on for another 10 years. But first the short term effects need to be safe and proof to actually be effective enough to stop the virus.


This explains it all very well and the different types of vaccines being tested:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Researchers around the world are developing more than 135 vaccines against the coronavirus. Vaccines typically require years of research and testing before reaching the clinic, but scientists are racing to produce a safe and effective vaccine by next year.

Genetic Vaccines: Vaccines that use one or more of the coronavirus’s own genes to provoke an immune response.

Viral Vector Vaccines: Vaccines that use a virus to deliver coronavirus genes into cells and provoke an immune response.
Protein-Based Vaccines: Vaccines that use a coronavirus protein or a protein fragment to provoke an immune response.
Whole-Virus Vaccines: Vaccines that use a weakened or inactivated version of the coronavirus to provoke an immune response.
Repurposed Vaccines: Vaccines already in use for other diseases that may also protect against Covid-19.



Some more research on D614G the mutation that seems to have taken over in Europe

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/science/coronavirus-mutation-genetics-spike.html

Dr. Choe, the senior author on the paper, said that the virus spikes with the mutation were “nearly 10 times more infectious in the cell culture system that we used” than those without that same mutation.

"This is a powerful experimental study and the best evidence yet that the D614G mutation increases the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2,” said Eddie Holmes, a professor at the University of Sydney and a specialist in viral evolution.

The mutation the researchers studied has predominated in Europe and in much of the United States, especially in the Northeast. They compared it to viruses without that mutation, like those found at the beginning of the pandemic in Wuhan, China.

Dr. Choe said that the results do suggest that biological factors played a role in the rapid spread of the D614G virus. “This mutation may explain the predominance of viruses carrying it,” Dr. Choe said. But other scientists cautioned that it would take significantly more research to determine if differences in the virus were a factor in shaping the course of the outbreak. Other factors clearly played a role in the spread, including the timing of lockdowns, travel patterns and luck, scientists argue.

Not yet peer reviewed and needs more investigating, but it could explain the difference in attack rate and speed at which the virus spread through Europe compared to Wuhan.

What I don't understand is why don't they just jump one or two phases. I totally understand the risks but this is an unprecedented emergency. I mean, I would be more than willing to try a vaccine that has already gone through phase I and II, heck, give me even one that has gone through just phase I. 

While you're right that it's an emergency, which is why this process is taking months rather than years as it normally would, it's just too risky to administer something to millions of people before we know for sure that it is safe or even effective.

One such risk is that if we rush out a vaccine without proper testing that only works in say 75% of cases but has a 1% chance of killing diabetics, not only could hundreds of thousands die from it, but the immunity coverage would be too low to contain COVID-19's spread anyway, and then once a truly safe and effective vaccine comes along, people will be too scared to take it because of the fallout from the rushed one.

We need to be absolutely sure it works and is safe before we give it to millions of people, the consequences are just too great.

The reason the vaccines we have now for other illnesses are reliable and safe is precisely because testing is so rigorous.



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Over 8 million now. We might reach 10 million by July.
Some projections are now projecting over 200k deaths in the US with rise ib daily cases in September and October.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america



chakkra said:

What I don't understand is why don't they just jump one or two phases. I totally understand the risks but this is an unprecedented emergency. I mean, I would be more than willing to try a vaccine that has already gone through phase I and II, heck, give me even one that has gone through just phase I. 

Phase 1 is administered to healthy people ages in the prime of their life to
Scientists give the vaccine to a small number of people to test safety and dosage as well as to confirm that it stimulates the immune system.

Phase 2 expands to more people and wider age range
Scientists give the vaccine to hundreds of people split into groups, such as children and the elderly, to see if the vaccine acts differently in them. These trials further test the vaccine’s safety and ability to stimulate the immune system.

Phase 3 test whether it's actually effective and takes the longest time
Scientists give the vaccine to thousands of people and wait to see how many become infected, compared with volunteers who received a placebo. These trials can determine if the vaccine protects against the coronavirus.

Testing is already going at lightning speed, phases overlapping each other to further speed up the process. However phase 3 can't be rushed unless you start infecting people on purpose after giving them the vaccine candidate. Plus it takes time to find and study possible side effects.

Figuring out whether it actually prevents infection and stops the virus spreading is the hard part and ethically problematic to speed up. Without knowing whether it actually works, the risks of any side effects can't be weighed. After figuring out which vaccines work and are safe for which underlying conditions, a plan can be made to establish herd immunity. Not everyone needs to be vaccinated while different vaccines might be safer for different pre-existing conditions and/or allergies. It's a giant puzzle, but we'll figure it out. Better do it right the first time since our hospital systems can't take much :/



curl-6 said:
chakkra said:

What I don't understand is why don't they just jump one or two phases. I totally understand the risks but this is an unprecedented emergency. I mean, I would be more than willing to try a vaccine that has already gone through phase I and II, heck, give me even one that has gone through just phase I. 

While you're right that it's an emergency, which is why this process is taking months rather than years as it normally would, it's just too risky to administer something to millions of people before we know for sure that it is safe or even effective.

One such risk is that if we rush out a vaccine without proper testing that only works in say 75% of cases but has a 1% chance of killing diabetics, not only could hundreds of thousands die from it, but the immunity coverage would be too low to contain COVID-19's spread anyway, and then once a truly safe and effective vaccine comes along, people will be too scared to take it because of the fallout from the rushed one.

We need to be absolutely sure it works and is safe before we give it to millions of people, the consequences are just too great.

The reason the vaccines we have now for other illnesses are reliable and safe is precisely because testing is so rigorous.

Oh, I totally understand the risks, but I still think it is totally worth it. Besides, it looks like they are already doing it:

"Another way to accelerate vaccine development is to combine phases. Some coronavirus vaccines are now in Phase I/II trials, for example, in which they are tested for the first time on hundreds of people."

They're calling it "combining phases" but it sounds to me that they are just skipping phase I.



chakkra said:
curl-6 said:

While you're right that it's an emergency, which is why this process is taking months rather than years as it normally would, it's just too risky to administer something to millions of people before we know for sure that it is safe or even effective.

One such risk is that if we rush out a vaccine without proper testing that only works in say 75% of cases but has a 1% chance of killing diabetics, not only could hundreds of thousands die from it, but the immunity coverage would be too low to contain COVID-19's spread anyway, and then once a truly safe and effective vaccine comes along, people will be too scared to take it because of the fallout from the rushed one.

We need to be absolutely sure it works and is safe before we give it to millions of people, the consequences are just too great.

The reason the vaccines we have now for other illnesses are reliable and safe is precisely because testing is so rigorous.

Oh, I totally understand the risks, but I still think it is totally worth it. Besides, it looks like they are already doing it:

"Another way to accelerate vaccine development is to combine phases. Some coronavirus vaccines are now in Phase I/II trials, for example, in which they are tested for the first time on hundreds of people."

They're calling it "combining phases" but it sounds to me that they are just skipping phase I.

They're still conducting the necessary tests, just concurrently instead of separately. As you say it is an emergency, so things are being sped along in every way that is safely possible.

But there's a difference between administering a vaccine candidate to hundreds of carefully selected people, and administering it to millions of people in the general population.

The last thing we can afford to do in this situation is erode public confidence by releasing a vaccine that's not properly tested.



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Environmental impact of trying to stem pandemic....

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/tossed-masks-and-gloves-threaten-drainage-systems-ahead-of-hurricane-season/

Tossed out PPE polluting waterways and drainage. Some people just have no respect.  I was walking through park recently on way to shoot basketball by myself and what do you know trash everywhere.  There was even discarded fast food bags on ground right next to trash cans or within yards of them.  They weren't even rummaged through by racoons or anything.  Basketball court lined with discarded water and Gatorade bottles...  I would spend time and pick it up.  However it will just be like that again in a week or two.  Obviously my city needs to higher more park maintenance people. Fucking pathetic

Just think about all the gear, plastic sheets, etc that hospitals burn through treating all these patients.  They are for most part being disposed of properly yet they will end up in a landfill.  We need serious alternatives to plastic or at least biodegradable plastic.  We are living in a plastic nation.

Last edited by sethnintendo - on 16 June 2020

Yeah, I see masks lying on the ground everywhere as well. City cleaners can't keep up with the sheer amount of assholes.



Same here, the GRCA wants to close the trails again since the recent influx of people leave all their trash behind. Recycling plants have been on hold or reduced here since the pandemic started. And all supermarkets have switched back to plastic bags (don't bring your own bags) Over all they measured a 4% increase in the total amount of household garbage, at least for that which doesn't end up on the ground.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-13/coronavirus-pandemic-plastic-waste-recycling

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/plastic-pollution-single-use-waste-climate-coronavirus-a9567456.html

With the price for virgin, or non-recycled, plastic now at historic lows and oil demand reduced, environmentalists fear that producers will pump out cheap plastic to stoke demand and soak up some of the global glut of cheap oil and gas. Plastic wastepiles are mounting in parts of Asia and with some recycling firms struggling to operate, plastic pollution looks set to rise.

I don't understand why anyone would think it's ok to litter, yet every month or so I collect another bag full of trash from the river access at the end of our property. It was getting better, less trash along the roads, but this pandemic has dialed the clock back on a cleaner environment by many years.



Ka-pi96 said:
Sounds more like a cultural issue rather than "lack of city cleaners" issue. People shouldn't be chucking their shit on the ground full stop. They don't here, and we don't even have bins to put it in either.

That said, we do use far too much plastic. And to whoever said we need a plastic substitute. We have one. We have multiple in fact. It's just that plastic is cheaper and easier to get. And most companies prefer the cheap/easy route.

Here they used to litter all the time.  Up till about when they started running the Native American tearing up over someone littering (fun fact: actor wasn't Native American) that things started to change.  Up till that point here in USA people would just be driving down road and throw their trash out along side the road.  I suppose they thought inmates or people who had community service would eventually pick it up or they just didn't care.  You still see it every once in awhile but there is a decent fine if police see and want to enforce. 

Do they have decent education about not littering and respecting environment in Japan because it seems to be an educational thing.  You would think it would be common sense about proper etiquette.

I've seen news stories of PPE in the Venice canals and other European cities so it isn't just a North America problem.  Don't get me started on some of the electronic recycling that goes on in China.  Once they get the gold or whatever else value out of circuit boards in China sometimes they just chunk it in local river.  There are pictures of electronic boards and debris pilled all the way up in river and cant even see if there is a river or creek underneath.