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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Ontario is currently back under the 100% week over week, just.

Detailed look

90% of daily reported cases are now in the hot spots, 76% in Greater Toronto area. My county sits at about 75 cases per 100K.
There is a big delay between case onset, getting tested, then getting added in the daily counts. With incubation period, there can be a 2 week delay between infection and getting added. So the dip in announced cases more or less corresponds to the weather turning back to cold 2 weeks ago. And the rise we saw last week in cases could still be the result of Mother's day.

Bloody hard to plan ahead when you're looking at results from 2 weeks prior. Faster tests, encouraging people to get tested sooner (which they are doing now) and better tracing (to find potential infections) are needed to get the lag down and make a better response possible.



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COVID-19 immunity lasts only six months, reinfection possible!
https://www.jpost.com/health-science/could-coronavirus-re-infection-be-possible-within-six-months-629575

"Getting re-infected by the novel coronavirus could be possible within six months of recovery, according to a new study published by a team in Amsterdam. "

"A team of 13 researchers from the country located in the Western Netherlands recently uploaded a paper to Medrxiv, an internet site that distributes unpublished manuscripts about health sciences, after monitoring 10 subjects who had contracted at least one of four species of seasonal coronaviruses over a time span of 35 years (1985 to 2020). In “Human coronavirus reinfection dynamics: lessons for SARS‐CoV‐2,” they claim that “an alarmingly short duration of protective immunity to coronaviruses was found... We saw frequent reinfections at 12 months post‐infection and substantial reduction in antibody levels as soon as 6 months post‐infection.”"

"“It was recently suggested that recovered individuals should receive a so‐called ‘immunity passport,’ which would allow them to relax social distancing measures,” the authors explained. “However, as protective immunity may be lost by six months post infection, the prospect of reaching functional herd immunity by natural infection seems very unlikely.”"

"Moreover, if the study is correct, then a seasonal rather than one-time vaccine may be necessary to circumvent ongoing transmission. "

"“But we are not sure this really happens with this coronavirus,” Kobiler said, noting that it has only been around five months since the first recorded cases of SARS-CoV-2, and therefore “there is no good evidence yet.”"

----------------

Basically they expect only 6 months of immunity.
Imagine if you cant even reach herd immunity levels from spread, in that time? *caugh* sweden *caugh*
You could have people getting re-infected by the same outbreak, that never ended.



Europe is doing great, except UK.



The slight uptick a couple days ago in positive tests here in The Netherlands is likely due to more and more groups of people being able to get tested. You can expect another of those bumps in the road downward next month as well, when they open up the ability to get tested for anyone who wants to be (sick or not, symptoms or not). Plus there has been a case of some animal factory where a whole bunch of workers (unknowingly) infected each other. Out of all tests, only about 5% is still positive. We’re still going the right way hard. ICU is getting emptied by 30 patients a day, it’s down to under 200 now, and we dipped into the single digits on deaths and hospital admissions since forever. It’s also been the second week now where there’s been less total deaths (including corona and everything) nationwide than in ordinary years. I’m not worried.

Last edited by S.Peelman - on 28 May 2020

JRPGfan said:
crissindahouse said:
Some of the countries in your "No active cases" pic have active cases for some days now.

Greenland and Western Sahara for sure.

Wow your right, Greenland got 1 person (today) that currently has it.
Before then they had gone for along periode without any cases.

I'm gonna go ahead and assume this person, took a airplane back to greenland, and was likely tested at the airport, and then put in quarantine.
A week or two from now, this 1 person, will have recovered and they will once again be free from it.

They have two. One from the 24th and one from today (or yesterday)



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JapaneseGamesLover said:
Europe is doing great, except UK.

Europe has been adding a lot of corrections recently, removing cases and deaths, up to 2000 at a time. It's hard to tell how Europe is doing exactly with all these subtractions. France, Spain and the UK, 3 big hitters, are messing with the numbers the most. Russia is doing the worst atm, but their reporting is pretty stable, hardly any week to weekend variations and no big spikes or deleting numbers. Germany, despite big variations between week and weekend number is pretty stable as well.

With so much variation in who qualifies for testing, different kinds of tests, duration between test and reporting results, and what qualifies as a covid19 death or whether outside hospital deaths get tested or counted at all, it's hard to tell what's going on when comparing countries or even within the same country.

Europe is definitely doing better than most of the world atm, the trick is not to get carried away returning back to 'normal', especially now the numbers are so fudged with corrections and changing test criteria.

Week over week UK is doing good as well, better than the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden and Belgium. Netherlands is loosening test criteria, Russia is just coming down from their peak, Sweden is heading back up to R1 and Belgium had a big dip last week so this week the progress looks smaller compared to last week.

My dad said the schools will go back to full capacity next week in the Netherlands. (They were open already but alternating half the kids) We'll see how that goes. Here Quebec (schools open again) has started to head back up to R1 and Ontario dipped back under R1 (schools won't re-open until September, but other things are open already) With this 2 week delay between changing mobility and seeing results, focus should be on getting that delay down. The earlier you catch infections the less they can spread. No more turning people away that want to get tested should be a first priority.



https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/28/postcard-future-life-denmark-after-lockdown

Under the shade of umbrellas, pensioners eat cake at a cafe, children slosh cups of juice, and students clink beer bottles, smoking, laughing and talking loudly enough to be heard above the buzz of people who are now … everywhere.

On 18 May, the doors of cafes, restaurants and shops were flung wide in Denmark and the high streets are bustling again. Even hairdressers have reopened (what did we learn during lockdown? How many Danes are natural blondes).

There are no face masks in sight, few gloved hands, and little sign of any seismic global interruption. The only visible difference between the throng pre-lockdown and now is that pedestrians walk in “lanes”, depending on their direction of traffic, and mobile hand sanitiser stations are parked at intervals along the high streets. Sanitiser pumps grace every shop doorway and smaller retailers display signs instructing customers how many are allowed in at any given time. But Danes are happy to comply for the most part – if there are already four people buying ice-cream, they’ll just come back later.

Denmark was one of the first countries in Europe to lock down on 11 March. The borders were closed two days later and Denmark’s famous hygge was put to the test as Danes were forced to stay home (although no restrictions were placed on outdoor exercise). As a rule-abiding bunch, Danes trusted that the government had their best interests at heart and so did as they were told. Every Saturday during lockdown, locals flew the Danish flag in solidarity and instead of clapping for health workers, Denmark’s answer to TV choirmaster Gareth Malone led Daily Morgensang (Daily Morning Song) on TV station DR1 to keep morale up. And it worked. Prime minister Mette Frederiksen’s hard and fast coronavirus strategy paid off – in a country of 5.8 million, the number of Covid-19 deaths stands at just 563 at time of writing and infection rates are below (0.7).

Curve duly flattened, Denmark was the first country in Europe to reopen primary schools – as well as kindergartens and day-care institutions – in mid-April, following the advice that young children were the least at risk. Some were nervous at the idea of sending small children out to test the water, but after five weeks of supposedly “working from home” with three kindergarteners, I was tempted. With work Zoom calls regularly gatecrashed by Elsa from Frozen and bare bottoms (lockdown brought out the nudist in my kids), my husband and I decided to go for it. Socialising young children is considered crucial in Denmark and as one psychologist friend put it: “We like the idea that children are brought up not only by their parents but by a whole society, including teachers, school friends, grandparents etc. They learn different perspectives from different relationships.” He added: “I also like the idea that I’m not the only one responsible for their development and wellbeing.”

Danes worked out quickly that social distancing was impossible with young children, who essentially lick everything they see. Instead, kids stay in “protective bubbles” – keeping to their own zones in the playground in small groups and sticking with the same teacher. Pupils from different classes are assigned different entrances and no parents are allowed inside the school. There are no face masks – for pupils or teachers; lessons are outside whenever possible, and handwashing is hourly (eczema flare-ups abound). Teachers sport hand-sanitiser sprays like cowboys in a weird western and all equipment is disinfected several times a day.

Denmark’s schools started off with a two-metre social distancing rule, but this has now been reduced to one metre and dropped entirely for kindergarteners. From 18 May, kids aged 11-plus returned to school, and they were also separated into smaller groups. This has been a logistical challenge but teachers have already seen the better teacher/child ratio as beneficial to behaviour – and kids polled say they’re glad to be back, following the isolation of home schooling.

Many adults, by contrast, are content to still be working from home (without distractions). Denmark was already renowned for its work-life balance, but lockdown life has highlighted the importance of flexibility for employees. Some office workers are returning to their desks a few days a week, but there’s a sense that employers can no longer demand the same presenteeism or demanding commutes as before. Meeting face to face isn’t always necessary and shaking hands – previously a stalwart of Danish etiquette, done with everyone from your GP to your dentist and every member of a social gathering – is now a thing of the past.

I can live without handshakes. What I miss are hugs, from friends. Socialising online made many of us strangely intimate. We didn’t know when we’d next see each other and so we opened up, skipping the small talk. Once we were officially allowed to socialise again in small groups, it was strange at first, tuning into friends in real life and talking about things other than coronavirus. But after the initial awkwardness, it was … brilliant (and blurry. Sore heads all around the next day). When restaurants and bars reopened, we emerged, blinking, from our homes, conscious of trying to keep up the meaningful connections that were somehow easier and more frequent when “normal life” wasn’t in the way.

Danes have now been advised that they can see and even hug grandparents again, but for those with very elderly relatives or in at risk groups, the isolation continues. Hospitals are coping, but the threat of coronavirus means that anyone admitted is tested for Covid-19 as a matter of course and no visitors are allowed. I don’t know when I’ll see family in the UK since borders are still closed to foreign visitors (with some exceptions). But for the majority of those living Danishly, the silence of lockdown has been a time to re-evaluate – to notice things, good and bad, take stock, break habits and start over. Many are relearning the delights of the Danish countryside, of slowing down, of looking after each other. And now, in Denmark, there’s a mood of optimism best summed up by the slogan det bliver godt igen – or “it will be good again”.


Lmao always fun to read about your own country, from other nations take on it.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 28 May 2020

What is this nonsense:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/new-study-suggests-wearing-a-face-mask-at-home-could-help-limit-spread-of-covid-19-1.4959360
Get this crap under control, wearing masks at home wtf.

The researchers specifically focused on secondary cases of transmission of the virus, and how it spread in close contact situations, such as eating around a table or watching television, from someone in a household to other family members before the infected person became symptomatic.

It's not April 1st right? How the fuck do you eat with a face mask on....

Results of the study, published in the BMJ Global Journal on Thursday, concluded that wearing a face mask inside the home was 79 per cent effective in preventing transmission of COVID-19 between an infected person and other family members, but only before symptoms of the virus were present. It also found that the use of a face mask after symptoms of the coronavirus were present did little to provide additional protection.

So, everyone start wearing face masks at home, puree your dinner and eat it through a straw!



SvennoJ said:

What is this nonsense:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/new-study-suggests-wearing-a-face-mask-at-home-could-help-limit-spread-of-covid-19-1.4959360
Get this crap under control, wearing masks at home wtf.

The researchers specifically focused on secondary cases of transmission of the virus, and how it spread in close contact situations, such as eating around a table or watching television, from someone in a household to other family members before the infected person became symptomatic.

It's not April 1st right? How the fuck do you eat with a face mask on....

Results of the study, published in the BMJ Global Journal on Thursday, concluded that wearing a face mask inside the home was 79 per cent effective in preventing transmission of COVID-19 between an infected person and other family members, but only before symptoms of the virus were present. It also found that the use of a face mask after symptoms of the coronavirus were present did little to provide additional protection.

So, everyone start wearing face masks at home, puree your dinner and eat it through a straw!

Lol, this makes no sense.



SpokenTruth said:
JRPGfan said:

Okay I might be wildly wrong then.

However:
The "5 biggest" major cities in Brazil is only about 23million people (out of 212m for brazil).

23 million?  Sao Paulo is damn near that by itself. Don't use municipal city limits for population figures unless you need a direct municipal to municipal comparison.

Sao Paulo - 21.5 million.
Rio de Janeiro - 12.3 million.
Belo Horizonte - 5.2 million.
Brasilia - 4.3 million.
Salvador - 4.1 million.

That's 47.5 million.  Double that 23 million figure.

The study mentioned "the 5 major cities"
If you google population of Sao Paulo, you get a answear saying 12,18.
I did the same for the 4 other major cities.
Which was how I arrived at 23m.