Yep this virus is wierd, for some time I thought maybe this virus doesn't spread fast as first thought. But look at Iran, Brazil, Russia, India and Pakistan it's spreading really fast. At the same time things looking good in Germany and Denmark. There must be something random that causes this virus to spread super fast.

And ofc things not looking good in Canada and California, despite ongoing lockdown their cases is just not coming down.

Living conditions play a big factor.  It is spreading like crazy in Brazil's slums which majority of people don't even have running water.  Plus they are packed together.  Brazil's president doesn't care for any shutdowns either and social distancing isn't promoted by the government.  

First case in 19 days, due to an individual who came from overseas and couldn't stay in confinement for more than 7 days over in the eastern states due to family circumstances and thus got an "exception" to come to South Australia.

It sucks. But as long as they don't put anyone at risk with their travels.

Clock resets to 0.

It's actually weird the other way, why is it not spreading faster in India.

The original R0 was estimated at 2.2, and the fastest observed doubling time was 5 days when looking at reported deaths.

Brazil's fastest growth was close to 300% increase week over week (April 1st), 1.17x daily increase, doubling time of 4.5 days which is exactly R0 of 2.2
Brazil slowed down after taking measures, but not enough, and has kept growing between 104% and a spike to 232% week over week, with an average daily growth of 1.042x over the past 30 days, a doubling time of 17 days.

Iran managed to get the growth down from a first peak of 3100 cases per day (March 31st) to a low of 930 cases per day (May 1st) and then turned back into growth, currently adding 2100 cases per day. An average daily increase of 1.036x since the turn around, doubling time just under 20 days.

Russia peaked on May 11th and has been declining since, a slow decline around 90% week over week.

India isn't growing fast either, it's been steadily growing since early March. Currently at about 150% week over week, 1.06x per day, 12 day doubling time. India is just starting to come back down again, slowing down in growth. Over the last month it was 1.048x per day, doubling time just under 15 days.

It's not spreading really fast, but slow exponential growth will still look like that once the numbers start getting big. Brazil, India and Iran all have their own challenges to get below Rt 1.0, and so far they're not succeeding.

Canada or rather Ontario is also back to growth (although today looks better) which is mainly because of people getting too excited about getting back to normal. The heat wave might help. From crowded trails on Saturday, I hardly saw anyone today on my 4 hour bike ride. Traffic on the roads and parking lots was still more than usual :/

They did shutdowns, but not enough, and I doubt it would matter much for the slums.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-08-COVID19-Report-21.pdf

By March 23rd measures were in effect, which started seeing results from April 1st. (peak growth)
Yet Rt remained above 1.0, not doing enough.

It's a balancing act which accelerates either way. Think of it as interest on daily infections, R0 is about 17% daily interest, Brazil is at 4.2% daily interest. 4 times slower, still going bankrupt.

Decades ahead of the curve.

Europe in detail, one week later

Russia is now responsible for over 56% of Europe's reported cases, close to 9K a day while the UK is down to about 2K cases a day.
Switzerland and Norway are both almost of the chart with 12 cases a day.
Spain removed 372 cases yesterday, added 859 today, and had a big spike on the 22nd (1787) in between numbers in the 400, so it's more or less a guess atm where they are. France removed cases as well today, hence the missing line there.


The UK reported deaths have suddenly plummeted. Maybe a change in reporting again, or a long weekend? Cases are also being adjusted again atm.
Russia presses onwards and upwards, is currently reporting the highest number of deaths in Europe (about 150 a day)
Norway, Denmark and Austria are all 3 down off the graph now.

Week over week changes

All below the 100% except the Netherlands. That might just be the effect of doing extra well the week before, currently about 170 cases a day.
Sweden is almost back to Rt 1.0, Russia also starting to lose their downward momentum.

Overall Europe is still well in decline, currently 86% week over week, 14% decrease per week.
That's still over 5 weeks to half the current number of daily cases.

I know their president is acting worse than mine (Trump) which is pretty hard to do.  I suppose they did do some lock downs but the president seems like he was against the measures or at least now he wants to open up even though it is spreading like crazy there now.  I saw recent video of him with supporters lined up crowded together cheering and hollering for him while he hugs children.  Pretty soon this guy might end up like Boris or worse.

Is Russia under reporting deaths because how can they have third highest infection rate yet have under 4k deaths?

Well, most deaths come from over 70 years old men.

Not many Russian men reach 70 or even a higher age.

Underreporting is probably still a thing. Same in Turkey and so on...These leaders don't want their countries to look weak 

Ah too much vodka and krokodil drug.