In the Netherlands we seem to be getting on top of things. New deaths seem to be hitting a ceiling with a similar amount for about a week now, new cases are slowly getting less each day and most importantly new hospital admissions are on a pretty sharp decline for a while now.

And more shops in the Netherlands stay open compared to Belgium,with the right distancing and desinfection it can be handled for the shops with enough space.

France has its third day in a row with over a thousand new deaths. It's very clear this isn't a fluke unfortunately, and it's looking like France will ultimately be the hardest hit country on the globe for its size if things keep up.

https://champ.gothamist.com/champ/gothamist/news/interactive-map-coronavirus-cases-nyc-zip-code
Cases by zipcode for NYC.

#COVID19 update from NJ Department of Health. pic.twitter.com/9yMuG04g0K

— Jeff Schervone (@JeffSchervone) April 4, 2020

They changed how they "count" confirmed cases & deaths.
Thats why you saw them have +23,000 confirmed cases yesterday.
And why deaths jumped so much, they are adding in cases of deaths from many days ago, as they confirm they are from covid-19.

Also they started counting deaths at nurseing homes, homes, ect outsides of just hospitals, if they suspect it was from covid19.

Alot of countries dont do this yet.
So things in france arnt as bad s they might seem... its just alot of other countries arnt counting cases/deaths like this.

Edit:

Think of it this way Newwil7L

New York State = ~20 million people  (new york has 114,000 cases, and 3600 deaths)
France = 67 million people  (france has 89,000 cases, and 7500 deaths)

Now, france is atleast 4 days ahead of New York State, in terms of the outbreak.
So imagine were New York will be 4 days from now? (when compaired to france today)

I know a state in the US =/= a country in europe, even if size/populations sometimes get close.

In terms of population, new york outbreak is much worse than Frances.
Plus I doubt the "deaths" in the US are counted the same way france does.
(ei. "real" numbers in the US are probably higher than ones shown)

I've been looking at the cyclic growth patterns in the data. It's hard to tell it's an effect from people being more social in the weekend causing growth to go up 5 days later (average incubation time) or if it's just human (in)efficiency in weekend testing / reporting.

What this shows is the average 5 day growth plotted from 4 different countries. Left side is the reported cases, right side the reported deaths.

The grey 'zones' are the weekends. 1.2 on the scale means, the cases for a certain day were on average 1.2 times higher than the cases on the day prior.

Germany and Italy have the most reliable reporting, Germany for efficiency, Italy for dealing with it the longest. The wave effect is very clear in the data from Italy. On average it's clear Italy has peaked and is now mostly underneath the 1.0 line. Also the reported deaths on the right side are now consistently under the 1.0 line, thus decreasing daily. I moved Italy one spot to the left since they announce their numbers early, so most likely for the previous day, while others keep adding up through the day. (Italy has already finalized their numbers for today, last point on the graph is April 1st)

Germany has a bigger amplitude in its wave, more extensive testing, more variability? Spain follows nicely and has peaked as well, average growth is now below the 1.0 line. The USA comes in hot from ramping up testing but seems to fall into the same wave pattern. France is messy, still mostly follows the pattern yet today's numbers will totally screw it up:

7788 new cases and 1053 new deaths in France. On April 3rd the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously. On April 2, it had reported 884 additional deaths.

Many countries keep changing count. I've gone through Canada's data this morning and there the same thing although with much lower numbers. For example suddenly 25 extra deaths, includes 20 deaths now confirmed from nursing homes over the past week(s).


The deaths not neatly lining up could mean it's just human reporting that causes the cyclic effects in case reporting and not a surge in infections. However deaths are far fewer, a lot not confirmed to be caused by covid19 until much later, deaths are counted differently per country, and now and then corrected. The variance in how long from infection to death is also greater than from infection to showing symptoms.

I'm inclined to say it's reporting that (mostly) causes the variances. If people would infect each other more on weekends, the peaks should be with Friday's reported numbers. However the peaks seem to be on Tuesday's, as if missed cases from weekends get added. So whatever gets reported on Tuesdays is likely too high, what's reported in the weekend is likely too low.


The great news: The measures are working very well, on average everything is sloping downwards.

Yeah, it's like France is doing exactly the inverse of the UK right now

I'm fairly certain deaths in the US count people outside of hospitals as well, but I haven't seen a source to prove that or the contrary yet. I'll do some digging.

I'll just leave this series of videos with statistics to the coronavirus and how it is in context to other diseases here, very informative.

Situation at February 12

Update until March 19

Most recent update, April second