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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

RolStoppable said:

Increased gun and ammo sales? Do Americans believe that they can kill the virus by firing into the air?

Well if Americans turn on their tvs they probably tune in to some "Walking Dead", "Fear of the Walking Dead", "random-zombie-after-global-virus" series, so it is understandable they want to stock up...

On another note, I just read about that village Ferrera Erbognone. It is located in the epicentre of the virus outbreak in northern Italy. About 1000 inhabitants, most past their sixties. Zero cases of covid-19...



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
CaptainExplosion said:
The media's praising Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg for donating $25 million towards fighting the virus, despite that being more like $20 for them.

We're in the middle of a fucking pandemic and that's ALL they're giving us? Cheapskate parasites.

They could probably have done more for fighting the virus with having folding@home running on their servers for a week or so

Lets say folding@home findes something that helps develope a vacine.
And instead of being 18 months away from being possible... maybe you cut that time down to ~15 months (before you can start giveing it to people).

By then, how many people will have died that those $25 million could have saved? (here and now)

If those 25$ are spent on PPE, and they save nurses/doctors and in turn saves other patients,.... thats alot of lives saved for certain.

Folding@home is a maybe, it does something... and if it does, atbest its a maybe, of how many.... and its really far out (into the future).



Pemalite said:
LurkerJ said:

The US can LITERALLY snap its fingers and create a universal basic income program that covers all of its citizens, hardly anyone would oppose it under today's circumstances.

And get off your high horse, it's safe to say that hardly anyone "grasp the whole extent of it" when just weeks ago this was a non-issue to most people, politicians and governments. 

Let's be realistic... That won't happen, the populace of the USA will cry that it is "socialism" and a waste of tax payer money, they would rather give tax breaks to big business and the rich.

Under normal circumstances I would agree. But what's happening right now is not normal. No unemployed or poor person will refuse a UBI program, if life doesn't go back to normal sooner than later there is literally no other solution. 

Let's not make assumptions on what the inflicted want and doesn't want right now just because they're Americans.... 



LurkerJ said:
Pemalite said:

Let's be realistic... That won't happen, the populace of the USA will cry that it is "socialism" and a waste of tax payer money, they would rather give tax breaks to big business and the rich.

Under normal circumstances I would agree. But what's happening right now is not normal. No unemployed or poor person will refuse a UBI program, if life doesn't go back to normal sooner than later there is literally no other solution. 

Let's not make assumptions on what the inflicted want and doesn't want right now just because they're Americans.... 

Thing is, most of those who would need it the most won't get anything.

The payment is tied to the 2018 tax returns, and if you were too poor to pay any taxes in the first place, you probably didn't fill out the form for any tax returns.

Also, isn't it just a one time payment, not a continuous one?



Ka-pi96 my condolences.
I know how hard it is to lose a family member.



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John2290 said:
LurkerJ said:

The US can LITERALLY snap its fingers and create a universal basic income program that covers all of its citizens, hardly anyone would oppose it under today's circumstances.

And get off your high horse, it's safe to say that hardly anyone "grasp the whole extent of it" when just weeks ago this was a non-issue to most people, politicians and governments. 

I think the experts who educated themselves for decades of their careers would beg to differ that it was a non issue when they were shouting at us in January to take it seriously while WHO played politcal games with China. And btw, sense you're all good with immunity, good luck rolling the die on the mutations, it's "just the flu, bro" in that regard cause it will mutate just as fast and while your at it roll another die that you don't get a reinfection which is being reported now and rumoured for weeks to be 14% of cases. 

I have never been in the "just the flu, bro" camp. No idea why you would assume that. I also haven't been tested for COVID19. I was joking since he seemed to assume I am riled up or something. 



SvennoJ said:

This is a big part of the reason why it got to this point and will get much worse. The only way to stop it is to stop it early. However then everyone would have been crying that it is/was not necessary so that path was not taken. Plus most people couldn't imagine what exponential growth actually entails, most still can't. 

Currently we're in the hammer phase, it can still be slowed like Italy shows. If everyone actually does their part it will be stopped dead in its tracks in a couple weeks, it doesn't have to take longer than the max incubation time. However the numbers are still too low for a lot of people to think of it as anything more than a nasty flu. Perhaps instead of numbers the news should show what's going in Italy in the hospitals. But that would cause other people to panic more again and do stupid things at the other end of the spectrum. Humanity sucks, we can't get together to execute a solution that will work.

Easter Monday is 16 days from now, with current growth rates in Europe and the USA, Easter Sunday will be adding 320K new cases to Europe that day and 21K deaths that day, 286K new cases for the USA and 5300 deaths. It should be much less than that since social distancing is having some effect already but it's only been a few days since France extended the lock down to the rest of the country while many places are still not all that serious about enforcing/encouraging social distancing. It's going to grow until Easter at least.

If everyone does their part, stuff can go back to relatively normal in a month. However we may already be too late to have a normal left to go back to. The health care system in Italy and Spain are already suffering major losses.

Yet if people keep at the notion that it's not necessary, worse for the economy, and keep going on about as usual, it will only take longer and do exponentially more damage, both to the people and to the economy.

And how well is your economy going to do when other countries isolate you to save themselves from re-infection?

RolStoppable said:

I don't think it's necessary that the people of any country have to care about what happens to jobs in other countries. Keeping their eyes on their own country is enough to recognize that unemployment numbers are rising at a much faster pace than confirmed corona cases.

In Austria we have reached five digit figures for corona infections this week while the number of newly recorded unemployed people over the course of the last two weeks has comfortably exceeded 100,000. The likelihood to be someone or know someone who lost their job is far higher than to be someone or know someone who is infected by corona. I think that's going to hold true in every country and that's why the perception of what is important and what should be done will change rather quickly. The currently prevalent solidarity to save lives will change to an expected payback, such as those risk groups who are now being supported being asked to show solidarity in return by opting to isolate themselves while the majority can begin to return to their normal lives.

Easter Monday being a deadline in quite a few countries is bound to be a catalyst too. When people can't spend time with relatives and/or friends during Easter, then the demand among the population to lift/change the measures will be amplified, because enough is enough.

I am an immigrant with connections back home, the situation there is dire, and it's the same situation in neighboring countries led by puppets, the majority of the world can't stand 2 weeks of this, we're just lucky we're in the EU/USA/Canada. 

The "it's just two weeks bro" camp made some sense 2 weeks ago and doesn't make much sense now. France extended their lockdown for another 2 weeks, 6 in total. Not to mention, these lockdowns are not imposed world-wide, and are being done unilaterally with no international co-ordination, and every country's lockdown doesn't mirror the rest.

Also, hygiene fatigue is a thing, to have faith in people to be vigilante about it all for so long is ridiculous to begin with. We have incidents of teenagers sneezing and coughing in old couples' faces here in the UK, Mosques in London refusing to shut down because "Allah is with us", Orthodox jews pulling the same shit in Israel. Petition like this gaining traction: https://www.change.org/p/uk-parliament-protect-muslim-burial-according-to-islamic-law

..... to have faith in yourself to do the right thing is encouraged and achievable. To believe the rest of the world is as rational and as caring as you are is naive. 

And again, how is no one actually questioning China's reasoning for its renewed isolation is beyond me. The same goes for Egypt who has lied continuously about coronavirus spread there and as a result, Egypt wasn't listed as a high-risk country because we actually trusted them to tell us the truth, lord and be hold lots of travelers from came back to the UK/Canada/USA testing positive. I guess what I am trying to say, it's difficult to imagine how these locdowns would work if everyone isn't taking the same approach to the problem. And it's not just the far east and the far west that aren't reacting similarly. Didn't the Dutch decide they're embracing the "herd immunity" approach anyway? Even EU neighbors aren't on the same page.... https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/dutch-exceptionalism-will-holland-s-looser-corona-policies-pay-off-a-fe2dd266-910c-4b62-9ddd-77b9189fc348

Last edited by LurkerJ - on 29 March 2020

First;

Ka-pi96 said:
Fuck this virus! I recently lost my grandpa to it.

Sorry about that :/ Have to say I'm pretty terrified of losing my grandparents back in Germany as well...

On another note;

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b

This report is rather interesting because it seems to indicate both healthier and younger patients than seemed to be the consensus. 

About half the ICU patients bellow the age of 60,

48% of deaths younger than 70, 11% of deaths younger than 50

A strong majority of both the ICU patients and deaths had no very severe comorbidities. 



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

Ka-pi96 said:
Fuck this virus! I recently lost my grandpa to it.

Sad to hear that. I am really sorry for you. Feel yourself hugged! 



RolStoppable said:

Sounds like a village where nobody would want to go because there's nothing of interest there. That's exactly the thing, though: The hotspots are the places where there is a lot of tourism, but it doesn't take more than a few kilometers away from such an area in order to be a lot safer.


That's my hope. We live in a relatively small town (11K) with a busy tourist season, however that doesn't start until end of April / beginning of May. It's mostly canoes and rafting, cycling, fishing, people shopping, fairs and dirt racing on the local track. We get a lot of Asian tourists rafting. One time a raft full of Chinese were stuck in front of my house and after watching them sitting there for a while I waded into the river to pull them loose. No one in the raft wanted to get out lol. I have no clue what's going to happen to our tourist season. That's not safe with this virus, but a lot of the town depends on it. However for now we're pretty isolated from the big cities. It's not that far though, hot spots are starting not more than 30km away.


RolStoppable said:

When more than 90% of infected people have only mild to moderate symptoms, then expecting death for the majority is plain foolish.

I only watch Austrian and German news and the situation of Italy is talked about and depicted. It's why the majority of the population here and in Germany is fine with the measures that have been taken. The minority that isn't fine with it splits into two camps, of which the opinion that the measures should be even stricter is more popular than the opinion that the current restrictions are too much. The daily reports about Italy certainly feed into the fear of the people who believe that not enough is being done yet. But like I said in one of my previous posts, the way in which numbers are compiled as well as unique regional factors play a big role and should be talked about just as much as the plain numbers that get reported. Actually, methodology and what the numbers really mean should be talked about a lot more.

Growth rates are already on a trajectory of decrease, but not yet in the target area. I say it again, the measures to minimize social contacts are correct, but what I am against is that those measures get an extension; I am not arguing in favor of premature lifting of restrictions before Easter either. The big question on many people's minds is how long those restrictions will be upheld because for most people the situation becomes less bearable with each passing day.

It's a given that the local economy does better without restrictions than with them. Getting isolated by other countries affects only certain branches of the economy (tourism being the biggest by far), but there's a lot of business to be done within each country.


The problem is all the undetected cases that keep spreading the virus. You need to get the number of newly detected cases per day low enough so you can efficiently trace contacts. Ontario only gets 150 cases per day on avg atm, but still has 10K tests waiting results and 45% behind in tracing contacts. So no grasp on where it is spreading atm.

Austria sits at nearly 900 (1.05x 5 day growth avg) new cases daily, Germany 6700 (1.19x 5 day growth avg)

It is looking a lot better for Austria atm, but when I look at graphs of other countries, all exhibit big swings at the start and Austria has had a dip in detected cases last weekend as well, just to jump back up on Monday. A lot of countries seem to work a bit less hard in the weekend (not that surprising) It could go either way, maybe in 2 weeks it will be significantly down in Austria and ready to loosen some restrictions. It would be an anomaly but there's hope.