Conina said:
eva01beserk said:
I chose 10 because thats what sonys attach ratio is for the ps4. Is MS much lower?
It does not matter. Its more of an individual analisis, wich I canot do. if the the average player plays 10 games is better than if it plays 20 for the same price. now if the average player buys 10 games like in sonys case, then gamepass would be a massive loss. For MS unless the average gamer buys 2 or less games a year(or $120 worth of), gamepass is a loss.
if you know the attach rate for xbox please share.
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Let's stay at the PS4. The attachment rate of 10 games doesn't mean that they have sold 10 PS4 games on average per year to PS4 owners but in the total console cycle (so far over 6 years).
Sony announced that (according to SIE research) they sold 1150 million PS4 games (retail + physical) from November 15, 2013 to Dezember 31, 2019 and 106 million PS4 consoles: https://www.sie.com/en/corporate/release/2020/200107.html
It is a time frame of 6.1 years, so 1150m games / 104m consoles / 6.1 years = 1.78 games per year and PS4 console. Of course the hardware base of 104m wasn't there from the beginning but has constantly grown from zero since November 15, 2013. With a linear growth in hardware base you can double that number, so PS4 owners bought annually 3.56 games on average, not 10 games.
Let's check that number out:
Sony also announced that they sold 274m PS4 games (retail + physical) during 2019: https://www.polygon.com/ps4/2020/1/31/21116942/ps4-sales-games-software-titles-all-time-million-billion-sony-playstation
The PS4 hardware base has grown from 92m to 106m in the same period, so let's take the average of 99 million PS4 consoles for 2019.
274m games / 99m consoles = 2.77 games in 2019 on average, and that includes digital games. It is normal that the 2019 number (2.77) is lower than the average of the total console cycle (3.56) since more and more casual gamers get a console after hardware price drops... and they don't buy as many games as the early adopters.
You can see that in this chart, I used the yearly VGC estimates for that: http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2020/Global/
The early adopters bought 2.18 retail games (on average) in the launch window of the PS4 and 6.09 retail games in the first full year.
That number has been constantly falling down to 1.90 retail games in 2018 per PS4 owner and probably a bit more in 2019.
From the 2.77 PS4 games in 2019, probably ~1.77 games wre retail and 1 game was digital.
Of course the hard fanbase of a console buys a lot more than 3 games each year (which pushes the rest of the PS4 users even below the average). So the majority of PS4 users won't spend more than $100 - $150 for games anyways.
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Well that puts the nail in the coffin for this debate. Props for the calculations that was good to know myself :)
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