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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; WEEK FIFTY-THREE!! GAME! SET! MATCH!

Bofferbrauer2 on 23 January 2020
PAOerfulone said:

PS4 and XB1 - That looks about right.

NSW - No way in hell. It has a very good chance to be up YoY, but not THAT much.

I expect all 3 of those numbers to be a good chunk over what the final numbers are going to be in the end.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 23 January 2020

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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Supermario28 on 23 January 2020

Switch 2020 growth:

Japan: +117'080 (up 30.8%)

WW: +303'956 (up 32.2%)

Outside of japan: +186'876 (up 33.2%)

I thought Japan had the biggest growth but it looks like the rest of the world sees an even bigger increase in these last 3 weeks!


Switch FY19 goal: 18m shipped

Switch from first week of April 2019 (W14) to last week of 2019 (W52) sold 16'824'318 units

The first 3 weeks of 2020: 628'593

Switch FY19 so far: 17'452'911 sold

If we count 1.5m Switch on shelves as we speak, switch could already be close to 19m shipped with more than 2 months until the end of FY19 and Animal Crossing yet to be released



pikashoe on 23 January 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
PAOerfulone said:

PS4 and XB1 - That looks about right.

NSW - No way in hell. It has a very good chance to be up YoY, but not THAT much.

I expect all 3 to be a good chunk over the final numbers.

I expect all 3 to be a good chunk under the final numbers.



Supermario28 on 23 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Supermario28 said:

(...)
Switch FY19 goal: 18m shipped

Switch from first week of April 2019 (W14) to last week of 2019 (W52) sold 16'824'318 units

The first 3 weeks of 2020: 628'593

Switch FY19 so far: 17'452'911 sold

If we count 1.5m Switch on shelves as we speak, switch could already be close to 19m shipped with more than 2 months until the end of FY19 and Animal Crossing yet to be released

That's not how the gap between sell-through and shipments works. If we estimate 1.5m Switch consoles on shelves now, then that's a pretty similar amount to how many Switch consoles were on shelves when entering the current fiscal year, therefore there is nothing to add onto the sell-through numbers for the current fiscal year. ~17.5m in sell-through also means ~17.5m in shipments.

 

I'm not sure I understand this logic. But maybe I'm missing something.

Switch that were on shelves on the 1st of april 2019 should have been counted as shipped during the Q4 FY2018 isn't it?

On the other hand, switch that are on shelves right now were shipped during FY2019 so they should count for this FY.



Nu-13 on 23 January 2020
PAOerfulone said:

PS4 and XB1 - That looks about right.

NSW - No way in hell. It has a very good chance to be up YoY, but not THAT much.

Amazing how after everything, you just say "it has a very good chance of being up yoy". There isn't a single sales trend pointing to switch being down yoy.



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Nu-13 on 23 January 2020
Supermario28 said:
RolStoppable said:

That's not how the gap between sell-through and shipments works. If we estimate 1.5m Switch consoles on shelves now, then that's a pretty similar amount to how many Switch consoles were on shelves when entering the current fiscal year, therefore there is nothing to add onto the sell-through numbers for the current fiscal year. ~17.5m in sell-through also means ~17.5m in shipments.

 I'm not sure I understand this logic. But maybe I'm missing something.

Switch that were on shelves on the 1st of april 2019 should have been counted as shipped during the Q4 FY2018 isn't it?

On the other hand, switch that are on shelves right now were shipped during FY2019 so they should count for this FY.

Rol is saying that if units on shelves/transit are the same as one year ago, then shipped numbers since then are also sold through numbers.

Simple example: A system has 15m shipped and 14m sold through at x date. One year later it has 25m shipped and 24m sold through. The 1m gap between shipped and sold remained the same, so it both shipped and sold 10m units during that year.

Last edited by Nu-13 - on 23 January 2020

Supermario28 on 23 January 2020
Nu-13 said:
Supermario28 said:

 I'm not sure I understand this logic. But maybe I'm missing something.

Switch that were on shelves on the 1st of april 2019 should have been counted as shipped during the Q4 FY2018 isn't it?

On the other hand, switch that are on shelves right now were shipped during FY2019 so they should count for this FY.

Rol is saying that if units on shelves/transit are the same as one year ago, then shipped numbers since then are also sold through numbers.

Simple example: A system has 15m shipped and 14m sold thorugh at x date. One year later it has 25m shipped and 24m sold though. The 1m gap between shipped and sold remained the same, so it both shipped and sold 10m units during that year.

Oh ok now it's clear!

Thanks!



The_Liquid_Laser on 23 January 2020
PAOerfulone said:

PS4 and XB1 - That looks about right.

NSW - No way in hell. It has a very good chance to be up YoY, but not THAT much.

I think all 3 systems are tracking a bit high at this point.  If we wait a couple more weeks then we'll probably get a better idea of their annual sales.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
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My Threads:
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Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
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Bofferbrauer2 on 23 January 2020
pikashoe said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I expect all 3 to be a good chunk over the final numbers.

I expect all 3 to be a good chunk under the final numbers.

So you expect each of them to sell more than that? I find them all to be tracking way too high so far.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Bofferbrauer2 on 23 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

So you expect each of them to sell more than that? I find them all to be tracking way too high so far.

He probably means the same thing as you, but the wording of your post was a bit confusing, so he probably thought that you meant that Switch will sell notably more than 26m etc.

Yeah, I realized that too, hence why I asked, just to make sure we're on the same page here.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/