shikamaru317 said:
I'll say again, something seems badly off with these latest numbers. They had 80% growth in just 9 months between the quarter ending March 2020 and the quarter ending January 2021, from 10m to 18m in 9 months, yet somehow growth from June 2020-June 2021 is just 37% percent? It just doesn't check out with anything resembling logic. Sub growth doesn't just fall off a cliff like that, especially since MS was doing even bigger things to grow gamepass on that 2nd window than on the first, like 2 day one AAA 3rd party games, Outriders and MLB The Show.
Only other possibility that I can think of is that the early 80% growth in 9 months was referring to peak sub counts only, rather than long term sub counts, so it was counting people who got the $1 Gamepass deal and such and people who subbed for just 1 month and then quit, whereas this 2nd 37% number is long term subscriber growth, people who sub long term either with multi-month cards or who turn on monthly bank account withdrawals.
Either way, it definitely seems like MS needs to be doing more to grow gamepass than they have been. It's time to go for day one gamepass on an even bigger AAA 3rd party than Outriders, MLB The Show, STALKER 2, etc. We're talking something like Elden Ring in February 2022, Tiny Tina's Wonderlands in March 2022, or Hogwart's Mystery in late 2022, a AAA game that has 10m+ copy lifetime selling potential across all platforms. If MS does indeed have billions set aside for Gamepass deals as rumored, they can afford it, and they need a big hook to get growth back up to large numbers again.
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Why would it not suddenly fall off, exactly what are you measuring against. This is one of those situation where lack of knowledge always hurt people trying to understand numbers when they do not have any data to compare. As to MS having to do more to grow, GP, without understanding what metric MS has set for GP, it may not be a question for them to "DO more now" but to continue to flesh out and build the service and increase subs based on a 5 to 10 year plan.
The key problem with trying to understand MS goal with GP is that they have not stated it beyond getting more subs. The exact plan and execution along those goals nobody knows besides MS execs. MS appears to be taking their time with the service as they continue to flesh out the capability of it and add content. I believe you are expecting way to much in a short period of time but MS is looking at the service as a multi year investment over years as they expand the reach and capability of the service adding new countries, service features and content. Its not a sprint but a marathon.