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Forums - Movies & TV - Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

Friday estimates are out for Rise of Skywalker.  It made $90M on Fri, which includes Thu night previews.  This is 14% lower than The Last Jedi, which made $104.7M on its first Fri.  If this continues, it will end up with $189.2M for the weekend vs TLJ's $220M, and $533.4M total at the domestic box office vs TLJ's $620.2M.

This brings us to the foreign box office.  The ROS made an estimated $59.1M at the FBO, which is 2.8% lower than TLJ's $60.8M.  If this continues, it will end up at $223.6M for the weekend vs TLJ's $230M, and $692.5M total vs TLJ's $712.4M.  And a WW BO of $1.23B, or 7.5% lower than TLJ's $1.33B.

I'll update when weekend numbers come in.  Of course, the big test will come next weekend, which saw The Force Awakens drop a mere 40% WOW, while TLJ dropped a whopping 67%.  Will ROS drop like TFA, or TLJ, or somewhere inbetween?

Weekend ROS DBO WE/LTD TLJ DBO WE/LTD ROS FBO WE/LTD TLJ FBO WE/LTD ROS WW LTD TLJ WW LTD
Opening $177.4M/$177.4M $220M/$220M $197.7M/197.7M $230M/$230M $375.1M $450M
2nd $72.4M/$362.2M $71.6M/$368.2M $94.3M/$363M $75.1M/$380.3M $725.2M $748.5M
3rd $34.5M/$451.6M $52.5M/$517.2M $50.5M/$468M $68M/$523.3M $919.6M $1.04B
4th $15.2M/$478.3M $23.7M/$572.7M $24.2M/$511.4M $64.7M/$632.7M $989.6M $1.21B
5th $8.29M/$491.9M $11.9M/$592.1M $10.9M/$534.6M $19M/$673.4M $1.03B $1.27B
6th $5.57M/$502M $6.6M/$604.3M N/A/$544.6M $9.9M/$692M $1.05B $1.3B
7th $3.21M/$507.1M $4.3M/$610.8M N/A/$549.7M $4.8M/$700.7M $1.06B $1.31B
8th $2.31M/$510.6M $2.3M/$614.5M N/A/$551M $2.8M/706M $1.06B $1.32B
9th $1.39M/$512.9M $1.4M/$616.8M N/A/$556M N/A $1.07B N/A
10th $565.7K/$514.1M $617.7K/$618M N/A/$557.9M N/A $1.07B N/A
Total $514.1M LTD
$620.2M $557.9M LTD
$712.4M $1.07B LTD
$1.33B

All numbers courtesy of the-numbers.com

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 25 February 2020

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shikamaru317 said:
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up lower at the box office than Episode 8 in the end, even though it is a better movie. Episode 8 is just so bad that it damaged the franchise, it will take awhile to win some of those lost fans back.

Well, at least we can put away the silly argument that was franchise fatigue.



I think it'll have better legs than The Last Jedi, word of mouth should be better. I'm still thinking Episode 9 will soundly beat Episode 8.



This is what happens when they cater to much with Jedi.. What viewers need is a Sith movie, one with Darth Vader's incredible feats, like when he took out 7 Jedi knights by himself, or pulling down a Starship, and defeating an entire Rebel army etc etc..



I cant see this one fading as quickly as TLJ. I havent seen it but word of mouth is really better already. It is not projecting to open that bad considering the position the franchise has been. But I think Mandalorian + good word of mouth will give it good legs.



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Hiku said:

Critical perception vs Audience rating is essentially reversed for this one.

Word of mouth may bring in more people to TROS for upcoming weeks compared to the previous film.

It really depends on where you go.  It's currently at 6.9 on IMDB, below TLJ.  It's at 5 on Metacritic.  I know pretty much everyone I watched on Youtube hated it, or at least thought it was below average.  And a couple of them actually thought that TLJ was either ok or good.

We're just going to have to wait to see how this weekend plays out, as well as the drop in the coming weeks, to see how people really felt about the film.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 21 December 2019

Hiku said:

Critical perception vs Audience rating is essentially reversed for this one.

Word of mouth may bring in more people to TROS for upcoming weeks compared to the previous film.

I wonder what will happen as the verified ratings increase for the audience score. 215k versus 19k.



thismeintiel said:

Well, at least we can put away the silly argument that was franchise fatigue.

We can also put away the silly argument that Solo's poor performance was purely the result of fans boycotting the movie over The Last Jedi, and that the fact that it was released up against Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 had absolutely nothing to do with it.



The Last Jedi was like 70% - 80% audience score on release if I'm not mistaken. In fact, it seems to be a Star Wars pattern, if you look like what people thought of The Phantom Menace back on the premiere.



 

 

 

 

 

I love the Star Wars IP, but I'm pretty over these Disney movies already, so I'm not gonna go see it in theaters. A friend of mine watched it recently and told me it was insultingly stupid so....doubt I'm missing much. I'm sure Kathleen is gonna be shown the door at some point now that this trilogy is over, so hopefully whoever takes over next, whatever direction they decide to go, at the very least comes in with a solid vision of what kind of stories they'd like to tell, rather than just having a revolving door of directors making it up as they go along.