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Forums - Sales Discussion - The hardcore console market seems to be shrinking

DonFerrari on 01 August 2019

The market is shrinking by the evidence of PS4 breaking record as fastest 100M seller right?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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KLAMarine on 01 August 2019

A lot of casuals getting swallowed up by smartphones I think...



dharh on 01 August 2019

I don't have actual data to back it up but I think the _gaming_ market as a whole has never been larger. Mobile gaming (android, iOS), PC gaming, dedicated platform gaming (consoles + switch) combined I think have made gaming largest it's ever been. You can try and slice it however you want hard core vs casual vs nintendo (apparently), SONY vs MS vs Nintendo, but it doesn't seem like anyone or anything related to gaming is dieing.

Even with MS having pretty big issues with its current gen console is still raking in the big bucks and does not seem like they are ready to drop out of the dedicated console market.



A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of their first breath to the moment of their last.
konnichiwa on 01 August 2019

Marketshare of consoles are shrinking, mobile is/has taking over.






zorg1000 on 01 August 2019
DonFerrari said:
The market is shrinking by the evidence of PS4 breaking record as fastest 100M seller right?

I dont agree with the OP but let's not pretend like PS4=the market.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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DonFerrari on 01 August 2019
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:
The market is shrinking by the evidence of PS4 breaking record as fastest 100M seller right?

I dont agree with the OP but let's not pretend like PS4=the market.

It isn't the market, but the "hardcore gaming is dead", "console gaming is dead", etc premisse besides being ludicrous is easy to dismiss when we see PS4 breaking records.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

zorg1000 on 01 August 2019
DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

I dont agree with the OP but let's not pretend like PS4=the market.

It isn't the market, but the "hardcore gaming is dead", "console gaming is dead", etc premisse besides being ludicrous is easy to dismiss when we see PS4 breaking records.

For sure but the OP said nothing about anything being dead.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DonFerrari on 01 August 2019
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

It isn't the market, but the "hardcore gaming is dead", "console gaming is dead", etc premisse besides being ludicrous is easy to dismiss when we see PS4 breaking records.

For sure but the OP said nothing about anything being dead.

Yep, he haven't gone to the hyperbole.

But ignoring that hardcore console market isn't Wii. So the comparison would be PS2+GC+Xbox < X360+PS3 (+Nintendo fans on Wii) < PS4+X1+WiiU not what he have done, that simply show what we have been saying in VGC for like 4 years. Gen 7 got a lot of new entrants due to Wii that wouldn't buy WiiU or any other console because they weren't hardcore console players from the begining.

If he had said that dedicated gaming machines (console and HH) have shrink (or returned to previous gen level), or that console gaming HW sold less I would agree (and give the same reasoning as I gave). But when he puts Hardcore he changes the focus.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Intrinsic on 01 August 2019

Wouldn't it be great if these guesstimates were made based on revenue made as opposed to hardware numbers?

Oh, and of course without the sensationalizing and the really poor use f numbers too.

Like seriously, you expect the PS to only ship 16M consoles from now till when it's discontinued sometime in 2023? Here's a shocker... It will ship more than 16M units between now and Q2 2020/2021 FY (thats ending september 2020 btw).



thismeintiel on 01 August 2019

Considering your estimates are wrong, no it's not shrinking. The PS4 hasn't even hit $199, yet. Once it does it's sales will continue to slowly decrease, not plummet off of a cliff, as you seem to expect. It should at least hit 125M.

Now, you may end up being right for XBO, as it seems to be decreasing harder than PS4 and is already effectively $199, depending on what bundle you get. It will probably plummet next year. Still, I think it can at least hit 49M-50M.

That's 175M, which beats last gen. It's even possible that it matches the gen before that, with PS4 doing 130M+. It really depends on how cheap the PS4 can get and how expensive the PS5 is.