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Forums - Sony Discussion - Ps4 @100mill shipped!

DonFerrari on 30 July 2019
Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

Is PocketStation included?

Virtual Boy is a console, the PocketStation is a peripheral that required a PlayStation. There's far more merit to include the Virtual Boy, but I'm not going to include either. Not just because of the Virtual Boy's short life and terrible sales but:

"an increasing amount of company resources were being reallocated to Nintendo 64 development."

"The console was pushed to market in an unfinished state in 1995 to focus on Nintendo 64 development."

The Virtual Boy was essentially put out to die, and is the most extreme case of atypical sales.

The fact Nintendo prioritized another system doesn't makes Virtual Boys stop to exist. Should we exclude PSVita because Sony decided to focus on PS4 when they saw Vita wasn't going to be a strong seller?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
Barkley on 30 July 2019
DonFerrari said:
Barkley said:

Virtual Boy is a console, the PocketStation is a peripheral that required a PlayStation. There's far more merit to include the Virtual Boy, but I'm not going to include either. Not just because of the Virtual Boy's short life and terrible sales but:

"an increasing amount of company resources were being reallocated to Nintendo 64 development."

"The console was pushed to market in an unfinished state in 1995 to focus on Nintendo 64 development."

The Virtual Boy was essentially put out to die, and is the most extreme case of atypical sales.

The fact Nintendo prioritized another system doesn't makes Virtual Boys stop to exist. Should we exclude PSVita because Sony decided to focus on PS4 when they saw Vita wasn't going to be a strong seller?

The Vita received FAR more support than the Virtual Boy, it had a clear place in Sony's lineup (Handheld, successor to PSP), it wasn't discontinued after a year, it isn't any more atypical than the WiiU and it wasn't put out to die.

Virtual Boy didn't even have a place. N64 came out a year later, Virtual Boy was never meant to be Nintendo's Home Console and certainly not it's handheld.



DonFerrari on 30 July 2019
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Would be very unlikely to overship 1M this late on the life of the console. Seems more like they reduced the forecast to keep certainty they will exceed as they have all years.

That makes no sense, you dont adjust a forcast down if you're currently meeting/exceeding your expectations.

You do if you see the future state you had when making original forecast change. So if they expected to sell something on Q4 at the start of the FY but now they think they won't sell they will reduce forecast.

drkohler said:
zorg1000 said:

That makes no sense, you dont adjust a forcast down if you're currently meeting/exceeding your expectations.

We roughly know how the PS4 is selling in NA and Japan thanks to leaked/reported numbers. And they are down, more or less significantly from last year's numbers. Shipping the same number as last year, we can easily see that the shelves are getting full pretty fast. So they are currently selling below expectations in all likelyhood.

My guess is somebody wanted a neat 100M number to report in this quarterly fiscal report, even if that meant overstocking. At least for prices, in Europe, they are still unchanged, as high as ever (in the $329-$349 range). So I wonder what The Plan is, actually...

You don't overship, that simply don't exist. This have been a lengthy discussion on VGC during PS3/X360 battle that Xbox fans claimed Sony was overshipping (almost every quarter for several years mind you).

You ship what stores order, you can't force them to accept inventory.

Barkley said:
DonFerrari said:

The fact Nintendo prioritized another system doesn't makes Virtual Boys stop to exist. Should we exclude PSVita because Sony decided to focus on PS4 when they saw Vita wasn't going to be a strong seller?

The Vita received FAR more support than the Virtual Boy, it had a clear place in Sony's lineup (Handheld, successor to PSP), it wasn't discontinued after a year, it isn't any more atypical than the WiiU and it wasn't put out to die.

Virtual Boy didn't even have a place. N64 came out a year later, Virtual Boy was never meant to be Nintendo's Home Console and certainly not it's handheld.

I never claimed VB was supposed to be the successor to N64, it could very well be Game Boy successor (it even shares the name), and Nintendo being faster to kill it than Sony to PSVita doesn't make VB not being accounted for.

Xbox original had like half the life time of X360 in the market, should we discount it?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Farsala on 30 July 2019
zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

PS4 still shipped the same YoY so clearly they don't feel like they were down YoY. Sony didn't release sell through either, so going off Vgchartz isn't the best indicator. US and Japan might be down YoY, but that doesn't mean other markets are.

What US being down YoY does tell us is that the holiday season might not be as strong as expected, so Sony could be anticipating shipping 1m less consoles for the whole year, based on US being down so far.

I know that shipments are flat which is why I'm saying its overshipped. We have data showing it's down something like 30% YoY in the bigger markets and I'm not using Vgchartz estimates, I'm using NPD, Famitsu, GfK.

NPD and Famitsu is only 40% of the market. GFK depends on how much data you got. If it is down 30% yet shipments are the same then clearly the other markets are doing quite well. Last quarter Sony only shipped 2.8m consoles, despite FY Q4 generally being quite good for Sony. Perhaps they undershipped last quarter instead. In fact, let's compare the 2 quarters.

Famitsu FY Q4 444k 2019 vs 700k 2018 37% down

NPD FY Q4 734k 2019 vs 971k 2018 25% down

Famitsu FY Q1 203k 2019 vs 264k 2018 23% down

NPD April and May FY Q1 285k 2019 vs 547k 2018 48% down (June N/A)

Here we can see Q1 is bigger than Q4. Q1 also held better YoY in Japan but worse in US (without June). We also see that for 2 quarters in a row PS4 is massively down in the US and Japan yet shipments are up YoY by .1m. I think Sony doesn't really care about the shipments for these quarters and instead envision shipping much less consoles during the holiday season due to the US being so far down YoY. Another 30% down for FY Q2 or Q4 US in 2020 would only be a loss of ~300k, while during the holiday season it can be 1m+.



Barkley on 30 July 2019
DonFerrari said:
Barkley said:

The Vita received FAR more support than the Virtual Boy, it had a clear place in Sony's lineup (Handheld, successor to PSP), it wasn't discontinued after a year, it isn't any more atypical than the WiiU and it wasn't put out to die.

Virtual Boy didn't even have a place. N64 came out a year later, Virtual Boy was never meant to be Nintendo's Home Console and certainly not it's handheld.

I never claimed VB was supposed to be the successor to N64, it could very well be Game Boy successor (it even shares the name), and Nintendo being faster to kill it than Sony to PSVita doesn't make VB not being accounted for.

Xbox original had like half the life time of X360 in the market, should we discount it?

Virtual Boy was discontinued after 6 months, the OG Xbox was discontinued after 7.5 years (in NA).... lol.

The Virtual Boy isn't comparable to any other system I used to calculate the averages, it's a huge anomaly. If you want to include it go ahead, but I won't.



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DonFerrari on 30 July 2019
Barkley said:
DonFerrari said:

I never claimed VB was supposed to be the successor to N64, it could very well be Game Boy successor (it even shares the name), and Nintendo being faster to kill it than Sony to PSVita doesn't make VB not being accounted for.

Xbox original had like half the life time of X360 in the market, should we discount it?

Virtual Boy was discontinued after 6 months, the OG Xbox was discontinued after 7.5 years (in NA).... lol.

The Virtual Boy isn't comparable to any other system I used to calculate the averages, it's a huge anomaly. If you want to include it go ahead, but I won't.

Considering every system Sony released sold over 80M, PSVita is also an anomaly but you kept it. Besides mixing console and HH



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Barkley on 30 July 2019
DonFerrari said:
Barkley said:

Virtual Boy was discontinued after 6 months, the OG Xbox was discontinued after 7.5 years (in NA).... lol.

The Virtual Boy isn't comparable to any other system I used to calculate the averages, it's a huge anomaly. If you want to include it go ahead, but I won't.

Considering every system Sony released sold over 80M, PSVita is also an anomaly but you kept it. Besides mixing console and HH

PlayStation average of 90.6m is 5.6 times higher than the Vita sales of 16.13m

Nintendo average (including VB) of 62.3m is 80 times higher than the Virtual Boy sales of 0.77m.

You can call both anomaly's, but the difference in how big of an anomaly they are is ridiculous. 5.6* vs 80*.

And why shouldn't I mix HH and Home Console, the point of my averages weren't just to evaluate Home Consoles, but all dedicated video game systems I deemed relevant. If you want to show just Home Consoles again, go ahead.



Barkley on 30 July 2019

Numbers on front page have been adjusted, was 97.2m, now showing as 97.6m.



chakkra on 30 July 2019
Barkley said:

Another point. Hardware Revenue increased by 2.1% for the quarter YoY. Around the time the news about 48% drop in Hardware Revenue YoY for Xbox came out I expected a drop of around 10% so this is surprising.

Well, to be fair, Sony has been less aggressive with their promotions this year, I mean, even during Days of Play the promotions were not as good as last year's.



Barkley on 30 July 2019
chakkra said:
Barkley said:

Another point. Hardware Revenue increased by 2.1% for the quarter YoY. Around the time the news about 48% drop in Hardware Revenue YoY for Xbox came out I expected a drop of around 10% so this is surprising.

Well, to be fair, Sony has been less aggressive with their promotions this year, I mean, even during Days of Play the promotions were not as good as last year's.

Price Drops or Promotions shouldn't necessarily cause a reduction in revenue, because the increase in units sold should make up the difference.