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Sony - Ps4 @100mill shipped! - View Post

Farsala on 30 July 2019
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zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

PS4 still shipped the same YoY so clearly they don't feel like they were down YoY. Sony didn't release sell through either, so going off Vgchartz isn't the best indicator. US and Japan might be down YoY, but that doesn't mean other markets are.

What US being down YoY does tell us is that the holiday season might not be as strong as expected, so Sony could be anticipating shipping 1m less consoles for the whole year, based on US being down so far.

I know that shipments are flat which is why I'm saying its overshipped. We have data showing it's down something like 30% YoY in the bigger markets and I'm not using Vgchartz estimates, I'm using NPD, Famitsu, GfK.

NPD and Famitsu is only 40% of the market. GFK depends on how much data you got. If it is down 30% yet shipments are the same then clearly the other markets are doing quite well. Last quarter Sony only shipped 2.8m consoles, despite FY Q4 generally being quite good for Sony. Perhaps they undershipped last quarter instead. In fact, let's compare the 2 quarters.

Famitsu FY Q4 444k 2019 vs 700k 2018 37% down

NPD FY Q4 734k 2019 vs 971k 2018 25% down

Famitsu FY Q1 203k 2019 vs 264k 2018 23% down

NPD April and May FY Q1 285k 2019 vs 547k 2018 48% down (June N/A)

Here we can see Q1 is bigger than Q4. Q1 also held better YoY in Japan but worse in US (without June). We also see that for 2 quarters in a row PS4 is massively down in the US and Japan yet shipments are up YoY by .1m. I think Sony doesn't really care about the shipments for these quarters and instead envision shipping much less consoles during the holiday season due to the US being so far down YoY. Another 30% down for FY Q2 or Q4 US in 2020 would only be a loss of ~300k, while during the holiday season it can be 1m+.