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Forums - Sony Discussion - Ps4 @100mill shipped!

DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

The most likely scenario is that PS4 was overshipped this quarter which is why they dropped their full year forcast by 1 million units while Switch was under shipped because they are phasing out the current model since 2 new models are releasing this quarter.

Would be very unlikely to overship 1M this late on the life of the console. Seems more like they reduced the forecast to keep certainty they will exceed as they have all years.

That makes no sense, you dont adjust a forcast down if you're currently meeting/exceeding your expectations.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:

Damn. At 6 years and still $299, the PS4 just outsold the Switch by 1.1M units. Guessing Switch must not be doing the greatest in EU if there is still that kind of discrepancy. Still good, of course, just not great.

The most likely scenario is that PS4 was overshipped this quarter which is why they dropped their full year forcast by 1 million units while Switch was under shipped because they are phasing out the current model since 2 new models are releasing this quarter.

Hardly. The Switch Lite doesn't come out until September. And it wasn't even announced until July. All of these results are up until June 30th. Nintendo would not be under shipping at this point in time. Maybe in the month leading up to the Lite release but not 3-6 months before.  

As for Sony, they are most likely going one of two ways. Either they are not dropping the price, instead relying on bundling, or they aren't expecting much in the way of a rise in sales with just a $50 permanent cut this year.



thismeintiel said:
zorg1000 said:

The most likely scenario is that PS4 was overshipped this quarter which is why they dropped their full year forcast by 1 million units while Switch was under shipped because they are phasing out the current model since 2 new models are releasing this quarter.

Hardly. The Switch Lite doesn't come out until September. And it wasn't even announced until July. All of these results are up until June 30th. Nintendo would not be under shipping at this point in time. Maybe in the month leading up to the Lite release but not 3-6 months before.  

As for Sony, they are most likely going one of two ways. Either they are not dropping the price, instead relying on bundling, or they aren't expecting much in the way of a rise in sales with just a $50 permanent cut this year.

I'm not talking solely about the Lite, I'm also talking about the improved sku with better battery life that is replacing the current model and releases in August. They are absolutely trying to lower the amount of stock of the current model.

Both of those things would have been factored in with the initial FY forcast, the most likely conclusion is that the Q1 sell through was lower than expected so they adjusted the full year forcast to reflect that. PS4 sell through is down YoY in every region so shipments being flat doesnt make sense unless it was overshipped.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:

Damn. At 6 years and still $299, the PS4 just outsold the Switch by 1.1M units. Guessing Switch must not be doing the greatest in EU if there is still that kind of discrepancy. Still good, of course, just not great.

The most likely scenario is that PS4 was overshipped this quarter which is why they dropped their full year forcast by 1 million units while Switch was under shipped because they are phasing out the current model since 2 new models are releasing this quarter.

The most likely scenario is that Sony knows that the upcoming comps for July-Sep (Spiderman released Sept 7th) will be tough and want to hedge against that number.  They shipped 3.9 million units last year for that period, they are not matching that.



zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Would be very unlikely to overship 1M this late on the life of the console. Seems more like they reduced the forecast to keep certainty they will exceed as they have all years.

That makes no sense, you dont adjust a forcast down if you're currently meeting/exceeding your expectations.

We roughly know how the PS4 is selling in NA and Japan thanks to leaked/reported numbers. And they are down, more or less significantly from last year's numbers. Shipping the same number as last year, we can easily see that the shelves are getting full pretty fast. So they are currently selling below expectations in all likelyhood.

My guess is somebody wanted a neat 100M number to report in this quarterly fiscal report, even if that meant overstocking. At least for prices, in Europe, they are still unchanged, as high as ever (in the $329-$349 range). So I wonder what The Plan is, actually...



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Train wreck said:
zorg1000 said:

The most likely scenario is that PS4 was overshipped this quarter which is why they dropped their full year forcast by 1 million units while Switch was under shipped because they are phasing out the current model since 2 new models are releasing this quarter.

The most likely scenario is that Sony knows that the upcoming comps for July-Sep (Spiderman released Sept 7th) will be tough and want to hedge against that number.  They shipped 3.9 million units last year for that period, they are not matching that.

You dont think Sony factored that in with the initial FY forcast back in April?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Train wreck said:

The most likely scenario is that Sony knows that the upcoming comps for July-Sep (Spiderman released Sept 7th) will be tough and want to hedge against that number.  They shipped 3.9 million units last year for that period, they are not matching that.

You dont think Sony factored that in with the initial FY forcast back in April?

No, the gaming landscape changes quickly and whatever they saw in beginning of April, they no longer see in July.  They were able to ship the 3.2m for this quarter so their initial forecast for the quarter stuck but they must have saw that upcoming comps will be difficult, especially this quarter with no game equal to Spiderman.  Whatever combination of what they thought they would ship from October to March won't be able to make up that deficit, hence the lower forecast.



So just to be sure...

VGC is two weeks ahead from when the PS4 should have shipped 100M, and saying there is around 3M PS4s in the channels?

And by the same time, Nintendo Switch had shipped 36.8M and VGC is showing only like 600k in channels?

Am I missing something here?

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 30 July 2019

zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:

Hardly. The Switch Lite doesn't come out until September. And it wasn't even announced until July. All of these results are up until June 30th. Nintendo would not be under shipping at this point in time. Maybe in the month leading up to the Lite release but not 3-6 months before.  

As for Sony, they are most likely going one of two ways. Either they are not dropping the price, instead relying on bundling, or they aren't expecting much in the way of a rise in sales with just a $50 permanent cut this year.

I'm not talking solely about the Lite, I'm also talking about the improved sku with better battery life that is replacing the current model and releases in August. They are absolutely trying to lower the amount of stock of the current model.

Both of those things would have been factored in with the initial FY forcast, the most likely conclusion is that the Q1 sell through was lower than expected so they adjusted the full year forcast to reflect that. PS4 sell through is down YoY in every region so shipments being flat doesnt make sense unless it was overshipped.

Again, this month would be the month we would see that, not last quarter. Which is probably why we saw the momentary out of stock for the Switch at a few places.  We also don't know if the the new Switch will replace all models at the start or if it will be a slow sprinkling region by region. I believe, so far, only Japan is confirmed.

We don't have actual numbers for every region, so it's impossible to tell if that is the case. I do know there is a limit to what stores will take. They won't take in shelves and shelves worth of product if they know they already have shelves and shelves of stock to sell. Especially in this slow time of year.



I think PS4 sales here is about 1m undertracked. And NS is around 1M overtracked.