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Forums - Sony Discussion - Ps4 @100mill shipped!

Intrinsic on 30 July 2019
zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:

Again, this month would be the month we would see that, not last quarter. Which is probably why we saw the momentary out of stock for the Switch at a few places.  We also don't know if the the new Switch will replace all models at the start or if it will be a slow sprinkling region by region. I believe, so far, only Japan is confirmed.

We don't have actual numbers for every region, so it's impossible to tell if that is the case. I do know there is a limit to what stores will take. They won't take in shelves and shelves worth of product if they know they already have shelves and shelves of stock to sell. Especially in this slow time of year.

It makes no sense to have something like 2+ million units on shelves at the end of June if you are replacing and discontinuing that model within 2 months, they would slowly get stock down in Q1 so it can be gone by the end of Q2. And yes we do know, the new model is confirmed for America in mid-August, Europe in late August and Japan in early September.

We have enough data from major markets to know that PS4 is comfortably down YoY. I'm willing to listen to theories on why Sony dropped their FY forcast if Q1 wasnt overshipped and sell through wasnt lower than anticipated but all signs point to that being the case.

I am not expecting 2M+ NS consoles on shelves. But I expect at least twice what VGC is suggesting is on shelves now. Which is 700k.

As for theories for sony's FY drop? I believe they are expecting a massive drop in q4 shipments. And I expect this to be due to a fall 2020 announcement/reveal of the PS5 or early 2020 reveal. That can in turn impact sales of the PS4.



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zorg1000 on 30 July 2019
Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

It makes no sense to have something like 2+ million units on shelves at the end of June if you are replacing and discontinuing that model within 2 months, they would slowly get stock down in Q1 so it can be gone by the end of Q2. And yes we do know, the new model is confirmed for America in mid-August, Europe in late August and Japan in early September.

We have enough data from major markets to know that PS4 is comfortably down YoY. I'm willing to listen to theories on why Sony dropped their FY forcast if Q1 wasnt overshipped and sell through wasnt lower than anticipated but all signs point to that being the case.

PS4 still shipped the same YoY so clearly they don't feel like they were down YoY. Sony didn't release sell through either, so going off Vgchartz isn't the best indicator. US and Japan might be down YoY, but that doesn't mean other markets are.

What US being down YoY does tell us is that the holiday season might not be as strong as expected, so Sony could be anticipating shipping 1m less consoles for the whole year, based on US being down so far.

I know that shipments are flat which is why I'm saying its overshipped. We have data showing it's down something like 30% YoY in the bigger markets and I'm not using Vgchartz estimates, I'm using NPD, Famitsu, GfK.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 30 July 2019
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

It makes no sense to have something like 2+ million units on shelves at the end of June if you are replacing and discontinuing that model within 2 months, they would slowly get stock down in Q1 so it can be gone by the end of Q2. And yes we do know, the new model is confirmed for America in mid-August, Europe in late August and Japan in early September.

We have enough data from major markets to know that PS4 is comfortably down YoY. I'm willing to listen to theories on why Sony dropped their FY forcast if Q1 wasnt overshipped and sell through wasnt lower than anticipated but all signs point to that being the case.

I am not expecting 2M+ NS consoles on shelves. But I expect at least twice what VGC is suggesting is on shelves now. Which is 700k.

As for theories for sony's FY drop? I believe they are expecting a massive drop in q4 shipments. And I expect this to be due to a fall 2020 announcement/reveal of the PS5 or early 2020 reveal. That can in turn impact sales of the PS4.

You keep saying 700k but the number is 1.3m on shelves/transit.

They didnt factor that in with their April forcast? No, they dropped the forcast because Q1 sell through was below expectations.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 30 July 2019
DonFerrari said:
Barkley said:

Ye and even including handhelds, 3 of the top 5 will be PlayStation. They have a very consistent track record of success. Their average sales for a console is 90.6m, that's including the Vita. No other company can say that.

Average PlayStation sales - 90.6m (Over 6 systems)
Average Nintendo Sales - 67.93m (Over 11 systems) (Not including virtual boy)
Average Xbox Sales - 51.5m (Over 3 systems)

Hell PlayStation only have one system that didn't make it into the Top 10.

If we are including all of PS then we should include all of Nintendo =]

Is PocketStation included?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DonFerrari on 30 July 2019
Evilms said:
Average PlayStation sales : 90.6 million (with 6 systems : PlayStation, PlayStation 2, PlayStation Portable, PlayStation 3, PlayStation Vita, PlayStation 4)
Average Nintendo sales : 62.3 million (with 12 systems : Nes, Gameboy, Super Nes, Nintendo 64, Color, Gameboy Advance, GameCube, DS, Wii, 3Ds, Wii U, Switch)
Average Xbox Sales : 50.3 million (with 3 systems : Xbox, Xbox 360, Xbox One)

Where is Virtua Boy?

should be more like 57.6 million with 13 system.

or about needing twice as many system to sell similar quantity of HW. And if considering only consoles to have a closer comparison with Xbox we would have.

PS - 111.63M on 4 system (total 446.52M) - SW total 4.2B (should be closer to 5B if we include digital) - attach ratio 9.4 (11.2 with digital)

Ninty - 45.33M on 7 system (total 317.36M) - SW total 2.3B (probably 2.5B with digital) - attach ratio 7.2 (7.9 with digital)

Xbox - 51.5M on 3 system (total 154.52M) - SW total 1.5B (should be closer to 2B as well with digital) - attach ratio 9.8 (13 with digital)

Based on VGC numbers



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari on 30 July 2019
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

If we are including all of PS then we should include all of Nintendo =]

Is PocketStation included?

Is pocketstation a standalone system? Never heard or used one. From what I know it is just an accessory for PS1.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

zorg1000 on 30 July 2019
DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

Is PocketStation included?

Is pocketstation a standalone system? Never heard or used one. From what I know it is just an accessory for PS1.

Not exactly sure.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Barkley on 30 July 2019
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

If we are including all of PS then we should include all of Nintendo =]

Is PocketStation included?

Virtual Boy is a console, the PocketStation is a peripheral that required a PlayStation. There's far more merit to include the Virtual Boy, but I'm not going to include either. Not just because of the Virtual Boy's short life and terrible sales but:

"an increasing amount of company resources were being reallocated to Nintendo 64 development."

"The console was pushed to market in an unfinished state in 1995 to focus on Nintendo 64 development."

The Virtual Boy was essentially put out to die, and is the most extreme case of atypical sales.



Barkley on 30 July 2019

Another point. Hardware Revenue increased by 2.1% for the quarter YoY. Around the time the news about 48% drop in Hardware Revenue YoY for Xbox came out I expected a drop of around 10% so this is surprising.



Train wreck on 30 July 2019

Also the terms overshipped and undershipped when it comes to retail is kinda of silly. Retailers deal with RMAs (return merchandise authorizations) all the time. If Nintendo shipped 2 million Switches to distributors/retailers, then they can issue a RMA for all older models by a certain date. while still shipping the new models out to the same distributors/retailers.