Every game console has to launch, and then pick up steam, when it comes to getting new games. Every game console eventually loses steam. I think 2020 and/or 2021 will be the slowest year/s for new console games/handheld since 1996. Why? For the longest time console and handheld launches have been set apart just enough to make it so at least one system was always hitting its stride, in terms of new games.

2000 should have been a slow year. But Dreamcast's 2000 was an insane year. I think there's 10 new games for Dreamcast that year. 

	DC	Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2 Treyarch/Activision, 2000	94.86% 18 Reviews
	DC	NFL 2K1 Visual Concepts/Sega, 2000	94.50% 21 Reviews
	DC	Tony Hawk's Pro Skater Treyarch/Crave, 2000	94.00% 16 Reviews
	DC	Resident Evil Code: Veronica NexTech/Capcom, 2000	93.79% 40 Reviews
	DC	Rayman 2: The Great Escape Ubisoft Montpellier/Ubisoft, 2000	93.05% 22 Reviews
	DC	Quake III Arena Raster/Sega, 2000	92.15% 38 Reviews
	DC	Jet Grind Radio Smilebit/Sega, 2000	91.90% 43 Reviews
	DC	Virtua Tennis Hitmaker/Sega, 2000	91.37% 33 Reviews
	DC	Dead or Alive 2 Team Ninja/Tecmo, 2000	91.37% 39 Reviews
	DC	Skies of Arcadia Overworks/Sega, 2000	90.59% 40 Reviews
	DC	Crazy Taxi Hitmaker/Sega, 2000	90.19% 37 Reviews
	DC	Marvel vs. Capcom 2 Capcom/Virgin Interactive, 2000	90.15% 29 Reviews
	DC	NBA 2K1 Visual Concepts/Sega, 2000	89.69% 24 Reviews
	DC	Test Drive Le Mans Melbourne House/Sega, 2000	89.50% 24 Reviews
	DC	Shenmue Sega AM2/Sega, 2000	89.34% 48 Reviews
	DC	Grandia II Game Arts, 2000	88.81% 31 Reviews
	DC	MDK2 BioWare/Interplay, 2000	88.08% 26 Reviews
	DC	Legacy of Kain: Soul Reaver Nixxes Software/Eidos Interactive, 2000	87.94% 26 Reviews
	DC	Ultimate Fighting Championship Anchor/Capcom, 2000	87.80% 32 Reviews
	DC	Power Stone 2 Capcom, 2000	86.99% 29 Reviews
	DC	Street Fighter Alpha 3 Capcom, 2000	86.48% 24 Reviews
	DC	Samba de Amigo Sonic Team/Sega, 2000	86.15% 26 Reviews
	DC	F355 Challenge: Passione Rossa Sega/Acclaim, 2000	86.13% 30 Reviews
	DC	ChuChu Rocket! Sonic Team/Sega, 2000	85.62% 34 Reviews
	DC	Wacky Races Infogrames Sheffield/Infogrames, 2000	84.29% 24 Reviews
	DC	Space Channel 5 UGA/Sega, 2000	84.22% 35 Reviews
	DC	San Francisco Rush 2049 Midway, 2000	83.44% 25 Reviews
	DC	Test Drive V-Rally Eden Studios/Infogrames, 2000	82.32% 23 Reviews
	DC	Mr. Driller Namco, 2000	82.08% 12 Reviews
	DC	NFL Blitz 2001 Avalanche Software/Midway, 2000	81.33% 19 Reviews
	DC	Resident Evil 3: Nemesis Capcom, 2000	81.11% 19 Reviews
	DC	Ecco the Dolphin: Defender of the Future Appaloosa Interactive/Sega, 2000	81.04% 29 Reviews
	DC	Tokyo Xtreme Racer 2 Genki, 2000	81.00% 27 Reviews
	DC	Seaman Vivarium, 2000	80.91% 32 Reviews
	DC	Sega GT TOSE/Sega, 2000	80.66% 36 Reviews
	DC	Street Fighter III: 3rd Strike Capcom, 2000	80.61% 16 Reviews
	DC	Capcom vs. SNK Capcom, 2000	80.60%

2006 should have seen new game releases slow down. GameCube was all but dead. Xbox was slowing down. DS and PS2 provided a lot of games to fill the gap. 

	DS	New Super Mario Bros. Nintendo, 2006	89.07% 74 Reviews
	DS	Elite Beat Agents iNiS/Nintendo, 2006	88.33% 52 Reviews
	DS	Tetris DS Nintendo, 2006	87.10% 59 Reviews
	DS	Castlevania: Portrait of Ruin Konami, 2006	84.98% 63 Reviews
	DS	Metroid Prime: Hunters Nintendo Software Technology/Nintendo, 2006	83.95% 66 Reviews
	DS	Clubhouse Games Agenda/Nintendo, 2006	82.98% 32 Reviews
	DS	Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime TOSE/Square Enix, 2006	82.36% 43 Reviews
	DS	Nintendogs: Dalmatian & Friends Nintendo, 2006	81.31% 8 Reviews
	DS	Yoshi's Island DS Artoon/Nintendo, 2006	81.15% 48 Reviews

	PS2	Okami Clover Studio/Capcom, 2006	92.65% 73 Reviews
	PS2	Guitar Hero II Harmonix Music Systems/RedOctane, 2006	92.07% 72 Reviews
	PS2	Final Fantasy XII Square Enix, 2006	90.77% 71 Reviews
	PS2	World Soccer Winning Eleven 9 Konami, 2006	88.25% 36 Reviews
	PS2	Devil May Cry 3: Special Edition Capcom, 2006	88.00% 33 Reviews
	PS2	Bully Rockstar Vancouver/Rockstar Games, 2006	87.48% 78 Reviews
	PS2	NCAA Football 07 EA Sports, 2006	87.47% 18 Reviews
	PS2	Kingdom Hearts II Square Enix, 2006	87.46% 72 Reviews
	PS2	Final Fantasy XI: Treasures of Aht Urhgan Square Enix, 2006	87.00% 6 Reviews
	PS2	Midnight Club 3: DUB Edition Remix Rockstar San Diego/Rockstar Games, 2006	85.57% 21 Reviews
	PS2	Disgaea 2: Cursed Memories Nippon Ichi Software, 2006	85.33% 65 Reviews
	PS2	LEGO Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy Traveller's Tales/LucasArts, 2006	85.19% 34 Reviews
	PS2	TOCA Race Driver 3 Codemasters, 2006	84.50% 31 Reviews
	PS2	Madden NFL 07 EA Sports, 2006	84.48% 24 Reviews
	PS2	Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Double Agent Ubisoft Montreal/Ubisoft, 2006	84.40% 15 Reviews
	PS2	Valkyrie Profile 2: Silmeria Tri-Ace/Square Enix, 2006	84.35% 49 Reviews
	PS2	Fight Night Round 3 EA Chicago/EA Sports, 2006	83.61% 36 Reviews
	PS2	MLB 06: The Show SCEA San Diego Studios/SCEA, 2006	82.90% 30 Reviews
	PS2	Xenosaga Episode III: Also sprach Zarathustra Monolith Soft/Namco, 2006	82.67% 33 Reviews
	PS2	Hitman: Blood Money Io Interactive/Eidos Interactive, 2006	82.51% 41 Reviews
	PS2	NBA 2K7 Visual Concepts/2K Sports, 2006	82.50% 12 Reviews
	PS2	Tomb Raider: Legend Crystal Dynamics/Eidos Interactive, 2006	82.22% 44 Reviews
	PS2	Call of Duty 3 Treyarch/Activision, 2006	82.17% 18 Reviews
	PS2	Onimusha: Dawn of Dreams Capcom, 2006	81.82% 53 Reviews
	PS2	Marvel: Ultimate Alliance Raven Software/Activision, 2006	81.65% 30 Reviews
	PS2	FIFA 07 Soccer Team Fusion/EA Sports, 2006	81.40% 27 Reviews
	PS2	Sega Genesis Collection Digital Eclipse/Sega, 2006	81.09% 33 Reviews
	PS2	Street Fighter Alpha Anthology Capcom, 2006	80.73% 55 Reviews
	PS2	OutRun 2006: Coast 2 Coast Sumo Digital/Sega, 2006	80.03% 43 Reviews

2013 should have been a slow year, but 3DS was on fire. 

	3DS	Fire Emblem: Awakening Intelligent Systems/Nintendo, 2013	92.52% 52 Reviews
	3DS	The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds Nintendo, 2013	90.55% 55 Reviews
	3DS	Pokemon Y Game Freak/Nintendo, 2013	87.89% 45 Reviews
	3DS	Pokemon X Game Freak/Nintendo, 2013	87.26% 45 Reviews
	3DS	Animal Crossing: New Leaf Nintendo, 2013	86.93% 45 Reviews
	3DS	Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon Next Level Games/Nintendo, 2013	85.86% 44 Reviews
	3DS	Etrian Odyssey IV: Legends of the Titan Atlus, 2013	85.00% 34 Reviews
	3DS	Shin Megami Tensei IV Atlus, 2013	84.03% 37 Reviews
	3DS	Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D Monster Games Inc./Nintendo, 2013	83.51% 41 Reviews
	3DS	SteamWorld Dig Image & Form, 2013	83.05% 20 Reviews
	3DS	Gunman Clive Horberg Productions, 2013	82.91% 11 Reviews
	3DS	Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Dual Destinies Capcom, 2013	82.43% 44 Reviews
	3DS	Etrian Odyssey Untold: The Millennium Girl Atlus, 2013	81.39% 31 Reviews
	3DS	Mario & Luigi: Dream Team Alphadream Corporation/Nintendo, 2013	80.65% 46 Reviews
	3DS	Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate Capcom, 2013	80.13% 15 Reviews

But now we are going into 2020. Nintendo pretty much gave everything they had for this year, so 2020 may be a bit of a slow year for them, the same way it was slow in 2018. 

There's no handhelds, or 4th console hanging around to buff up the numbers anymore. 

PS4 is selling very well, but it isn't the 150 million juggernaut that was the PS2. So I doubt it will get as much 3rd party support as the PS2 got in it's final years. 

I'm pretty sure they didn't, far from it. They still have tons of franchises that didn't release a game on the Switch, and several which still can have another title on the Switch, like a Mario Kart 9 or a Paper Mario, for instance.

Meh. PS5/XB2 will be easy enough to develop for after the PS4/XBO. Backwards compatibility for both will help also. Expect the transition to be a lot smoother than PS2 to PS3 and PS3 to PS4.

^ this.

I'm also expecting a much smoother transition from PS4->PS5, than from PS3->PS4.
Thats one of the benefits of x86 and sticking with very simular designs in cpu+gpu, even the unified memory ect.

Not to mention there will be backwards coompatability, which will ease the transition periode at the start of the gen abit.

It looks to me like those will be great year, so long as the new systems launch next year, as planned. We already know about a bunch of big games that are likely to hit in that timeframe.

If something happened that resulted in a delay until 2021 for new console launches, which also meant that the big launch games were delayed, then the OP could be correct. But, that's super highly unlikely.

I agree with X86 having potential to speed the next generation's output of games up. But how would backwards compatibility increase the output of games for PS5/XB2?  

What are these 3DS devs? SMTV has gone dark for a long time, and Atlus' last Nintendo console game (Tokyo Mirage Sessions) was a very late gen release. All I can think of for 2020 3DS devs would be YW4, but that's already out in Japan. I give it 75% odds that BotW2 releases in 2020. But what else is there? Nothing has really been announced yet. 

If indie devs went ahead and kept up the same pace it wouldn't save 2020 from having fewer games overall. They'd have to increase their output by quite a bit in order to keep the games flowing in an absence of larger devs. I'm not sure how much the indie output has grown over the years though. For all I know, they are still growing by leaps and bounds. I haven't bothered to look into it yet. Pinning down release dates for indie games is a bit of a hassle. You have to find out which version of the game launched first, vs just compiling a list on gamerankings for non-Indie games. I guess I'll do the research on that later today though. 

Alphadream has kind of gotten stale over the years. Their last critical hit that wasn't a remake was Dream Team. 

If Atlus were to provide the same support for Switch that they provided to the 3DS, it would easily make Switch the greatest console of all time IMO. 

I am worried about whether or not Atlus' EO Team, and especially Alphadream are up to the challenge to making full fledged console style games. To be honest I'm even getting a little nervious about the new Fire Emblem, and Poke'mon. 

Pretty sure the Splatoon 2 team is working on Animal Crossing: New Horizons. Right now, I'm looking at 2020 for the Switch, and seeing Bayonetta 3, 75% odds of BotW2, Yokai Watch 4, and New Horizons. If BotW2 gets pushed to 2020, and nothing else new got put out there, then it would be a repeat of 2018, as far as I'm concerned. 

But yeah, Nintendo does like to wait until 6 months or less to even announce stuff. I definitely see the potential for a massive 2020 on Switch. But I have to remember that this is Nintendo we are talking about. They've always ran out of gas around year 3 or 4 of a console, or handheld's life cycle. Even if we were to stack and align both libraries of WiiU/3DS together, we would see a slowdown in 1st/2nd party games around the 3rd year. 

For Example: 3DS' 3rd year was 2014. Nintendo put out Kirby: Triple Deluxe, Pokemon ORAS, and Smash 4 on 3DS. Wii U's 3rd year was mostly 2015. We got Splatoon, Mario Maker, and Xenoblade X. Poke'mon ORAS was a remake. So the combined 1st party output for the 3rd year of both systems aligned would be Smash 4, Kirby, Splatoon, Mario Maker, and Xenoblade. 

Compare that to a combined 2nd year output of 3DS/WiiU...

Bayonetta 2, Tropical Freeze, Captian Toad, Mario Kart 8, Dream Team, Pokemon X/Y, Animal Crossing New Leaf, Luigi's Mansion 2, A Link Between Worlds, and Fire Emblem: Awakening. 

And that's if we are going to choose to be generous and give Smash 4 to the 3rd year lineup. If we take Smash 4, and say it's a Wii U game, then it belongs in the 2nd year catagory, which makes it even more lopsided. 

If you look at the 2nd year list of the combined WiiU/3DS 1st/2nd party output it looks really similar to 2019. I believe that we are getting that epic 2nd year dump in 2019, the same as if WiiU/3DS were the same system in in their 2nd year. I'm skeptical about 3rd parties ability to move from 3DS to Switch. But again, anything is possible. This is uncharted territory in a lot of ways, and previous years' analysis can only go so far. 

3DS year 1 = Feb 2011 to Feb 2012
3DS year 2 = Feb 2012 to Feb 2013
3DS year 3 = Feb 2013 to Feb 2014 

Yeah, my mistake. I know perfectly well the 3DS launched in the start of 2011. I'm too used to systems launching during the holidays, and glazed over that little fact.