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Forums - Sales - Switch overtakes total PS4 sales in Japan, in less than half the time

trasharmdsister12 said:
DonFerrari said:

I read him, and he is trying to deny that the biggest reason for Switch success in Japan is portability. Considering Switch isn't selling significantly above PS4 in any other territory, but in Japan it sells at over twice the rate and that Japan from all markets is the one where portability is more relevant (magnified by just looking at PSVita that bombed everywhere but done much better in Japan) it is pretty clear that it is the major aspect to differentiate both in sales there.

I'm not sure anyone has mentioned it as a point of support for the stance that games are important but when someone says games are what is selling the Switch in Japan they aren't saying the other platforms have bad games. They're saying that the games released on Switch appeal to the Japanese audience greatly. And maybe it isn't the style of games as much as it is just the brand of games. And we don't need to look so far into history to see that the game theory holds weight. Let's take a look at the Wii U to take away the factor of portability and see how Nintendo's console performed in Japan versus the PS4 and in ratio to other regions. I'm going to use VGC numbers.

Here's a table laying out the region split of sales for the 3 platforms as well as some important ratios. Sales numbers are in millions.

Region NS PS4 W-U NS Split PS4 Split W-U Split
North America 12.99 32.02 6.23 38.04% 33.43% 44.60%
Europe 9.10 38.80 3.54 26.65% 40.51% 25.34%
Japan 8.10 8.10 3.33 23.72% 8.46% 23.84%
ROW 3.96 16.87 0.87 11.60% 17.61% 6.23%
TOTAL 34.15 95.79 13.97

So the big observation is the relative consistency of the region split of sales for the Switch and Wii U. What this indicates is that the Wii U and Switch didn't sell all that different between regions as far as the split of total sales goes. But the Wii U wasn't portable and still sold at a similar ratio regarding Japan vs sales in other regions. The only differentiation is ROW sales being higher for Switch and NA sales being lower but that might be something to do with VGC tracking ROW sales more in more recent years. It could also be lower in NA due to being a portable?  In any case, the result is a strong indication of brand and associated IP being a large factor of why Switch does so well in Japan.

EDIT: I wanted to add more to this thought. The portability and design of the console may have something to do with the popularity of the console as a whole, which is why sales are higher. Meanwhile the ratio of sales between regions remains the same due to the games. So what we're seeing is product design acting as a linear coefficient to an existing game appeal since the ratios for Switch and Wii U are almost exact.

Thanks for the good post.

When all is done a similar breakthrough will give a better view. Because WiiU at 15M sales is very much distorted with the most loyal fanbase when compared to potential 100M sales of Switch.

Similar to a comparison using PSP, PSVita and PS4 would have great caveats.

And yes, I can certainly understand and accept that different games will have different appreciation depending on the public (geographic or platform). But when WiiU had similar type of games but ludicrous sales (still more in line with N64 and GC) while Switch will go near or above 3DS, shows that it being portable, a domain Nintendo have much more strength shows that being portable have helped Switch a lot.



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DonFerrari said:
trasharmdsister12 said:

I'm not sure anyone has mentioned it as a point of support for the stance that games are important but when someone says games are what is selling the Switch in Japan they aren't saying the other platforms have bad games. They're saying that the games released on Switch appeal to the Japanese audience greatly. And maybe it isn't the style of games as much as it is just the brand of games. And we don't need to look so far into history to see that the game theory holds weight. Let's take a look at the Wii U to take away the factor of portability and see how Nintendo's console performed in Japan versus the PS4 and in ratio to other regions. I'm going to use VGC numbers.

Here's a table laying out the region split of sales for the 3 platforms as well as some important ratios. Sales numbers are in millions.

Region NS PS4 W-U NS Split PS4 Split W-U Split
North America 12.99 32.02 6.23 38.04% 33.43% 44.60%
Europe 9.10 38.80 3.54 26.65% 40.51% 25.34%
Japan 8.10 8.10 3.33 23.72% 8.46% 23.84%
ROW 3.96 16.87 0.87 11.60% 17.61% 6.23%
TOTAL 34.15 95.79 13.97

So the big observation is the relative consistency of the region split of sales for the Switch and Wii U. What this indicates is that the Wii U and Switch didn't sell all that different between regions as far as the split of total sales goes. But the Wii U wasn't portable and still sold at a similar ratio regarding Japan vs sales in other regions. The only differentiation is ROW sales being higher for Switch and NA sales being lower but that might be something to do with VGC tracking ROW sales more in more recent years. It could also be lower in NA due to being a portable?  In any case, the result is a strong indication of brand and associated IP being a large factor of why Switch does so well in Japan.

EDIT: I wanted to add more to this thought. The portability and design of the console may have something to do with the popularity of the console as a whole, which is why sales are higher. Meanwhile the ratio of sales between regions remains the same due to the games. So what we're seeing is product design acting as a linear coefficient to an existing game appeal since the ratios for Switch and Wii U are almost exact.

Thanks for the good post.

When all is done a similar breakthrough will give a better view. Because WiiU at 15M sales is very much distorted with the most loyal fanbase when compared to potential 100M sales of Switch.

Similar to a comparison using PSP, PSVita and PS4 would have great caveats.

And yes, I can certainly understand and accept that different games will have different appreciation depending on the public (geographic or platform). But when WiiU had similar type of games but ludicrous sales (still more in line with N64 and GC) while Switch will go near or above 3DS, shows that it being portable, a domain Nintendo have much more strength shows that being portable have helped Switch a lot.

Absolutely. No matter how enjoyable Zelda, Mario and Co are, I still consider Switch the 3DS successor and it's selling accordingly with usual Nintendo portable market and audience.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


0D0 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Question: What do you consider big Japanese games?

I guess it's the same "big game" idea that happens in most gamers mind: AAA, ancient franchise, current-gen graphics, open world-ish, holywood-sized budget, million(s) seller, sort of everybody likes/buy, etc.

Not really. something like nioh, ninja gaiden, bloodborn, and sekiro would be fine. those aren't big franchises, 3 of them are new ip's. just something that takes advantage switch, and doesn't look like a 16 bit game or that it runs on a ps2. 



RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

Thanks for the good post.

When all is done a similar breakthrough will give a better view. Because WiiU at 15M sales is very much distorted with the most loyal fanbase when compared to potential 100M sales of Switch.

Similar to a comparison using PSP, PSVita and PS4 would have great caveats.

And yes, I can certainly understand and accept that different games will have different appreciation depending on the public (geographic or platform). But when WiiU had similar type of games but ludicrous sales (still more in line with N64 and GC) while Switch will go near or above 3DS, shows that it being portable, a domain Nintendo have much more strength shows that being portable have helped Switch a lot.

That sounds like you are clinging to cherry-picked data in order to maintain your stance that portability is the biggest factor in Switch's success, but the complete set of data shows that Nintendo has had home consoles that were very successful; the NES sold 19m, the SNES 17m. Using games as the most important factor creates a consistent link between all Nintendo consoles regardless of their form factor.

Consoles that sold more than 15m: NES, GB/C, SNES, GBA, DS, 3DS, Switch (projected).
Consoles that sold less than 15m: N64, GC, Wii, Wii U.

Consoles with good third party support: NES, GB/C, SNES, GBA, DS, 3DS, Switch.
Consoles without good third party support: N64, GC, Wii, Wii U.

The lists are exactly the same. That the less successful Nintendo consoles are exclusively home consoles is not due to their form factor, because if that was the cause, then the NES and SNES shouldn't have been successful. What all Nintendo consoles have in common is good first party support, but the woeful third party support in four cases led to large gaps between worthwhile game releases which in turn crippled sales momentum in the long run. If Switch third party support was shaping up like Wii's, we could conclude that Switch will have a hard time to reach 15m lifetime. But since it's looking like Switch will get robust third party support similar to consoles like the DS and 3DS before it, we have the expectation that Switch will not only pass 15m, but also 20m.

A few days ago I showed you the bestseller lists for Switch and PS4 to demonstrate that Switch has had more hit games than the PS4 and in a shorter time to boot. There's still the question why the Vita sold worse than the PS4 despite portability supposedly being such a big advantage. Let's look at the lists:

PS4 software sorted by sales in Japan
PSV software sorted by sales in Japan

Looks like the PS4 had the bigger games and more of them, so that's the most obvious explanation why it sold more hardware than the Vita.

This post is not to say that portability doesn't matter at all for Switch's success; portability means convenience and that's of course beneficial. But the importance of portability is greatly overstated by you and others, because the data should make it clear that games matter much more for console sales than portability.

Why are you going back to super nes, nes era? home console market has really shrunk in japan after ps2. Even Ps2 the most successful home console of all time sold less then 3DS. You're gonna tell me 3ds had more appealing software then ps2 did in that market? obviously being handheld plays a major role. You constantly bring up the vita but the software on ps4  is basically a million times more appealing and yet it only ahead of vita by 2 million. 



RolStoppable said:
linkink said:

Why are you going back to super nes, nes era? home console market has really shrunk in japan after ps2. Even Ps2 the most successful home console of all time sold less then 3DS. You're gonna tell me 3ds had more appealing software then ps2 did in that market? obviously being handheld plays a major role. You constantly bring up the vita but the software on ps4  is basically a million times more appealing and yet it only ahead of vita by 2 million. 

I include all data because that approach allows for better conclusions to be made.

And yes, I am going to tell you that the 3DS had more appealing software than the PS2.

PS2
3DS

But no, the PS4 lineup isn't a million times more appealing than the Vita's library. The PS4 game selection skews heavily towards American and European tastes, so the huge advantage that the PS4 has over the Vita in America and Europe doesn't translate to Japan. It's also wrong to say that the PS4 is only 2m ahead of the Vita, because the Vita is done selling while the PS4 still has life left in it; a projection puts the PS4 about 4m units ahead of the Vita in Japan, so at least 65-70% more than what the Vita sold. That is in line with the higher popularity of the PS4 library.

Not really . ps4 has monster hunter, dragon quest , final fantasy, kindom hearts, and almost every other big Japanese game franchise. looking at PSP how did that sell over 20 million in japan? The software according to vgchartz was abysmal for the Japanese market.  

Last edited by linkink - on 29 May 2019

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RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

I read him, and he is trying to deny that the biggest reason for Switch success in Japan is portability. Considering Switch isn't selling significantly above PS4 in any other territory, but in Japan it sells at over twice the rate and that Japan from all markets is the one where portability is more relevant (magnified by just looking at PSVita that bombed everywhere but done much better in Japan) it is pretty clear that it is the major aspect to differentiate both in sales there.

And that he didn't buy or had the need for PS4 or X1, had a WiiU and bought Switch.

The need to fight that it isn't Portability the major selling point of Switch in Japan, but it is the games (as if the other consoles didn't had good games) or other subject aspects he didn't present.

Sounds like sethnintendo and curl-6 are one and the same person.

Yea I think he got us mixed up.  I for one don't even own a Switch yet.



linkink said:
RolStoppable said:

I include all data because that approach allows for better conclusions to be made.

And yes, I am going to tell you that the 3DS had more appealing software than the PS2.

PS2
3DS

But no, the PS4 lineup isn't a million times more appealing than the Vita's library. The PS4 game selection skews heavily towards American and European tastes, so the huge advantage that the PS4 has over the Vita in America and Europe doesn't translate to Japan. It's also wrong to say that the PS4 is only 2m ahead of the Vita, because the Vita is done selling while the PS4 still has life left in it; a projection puts the PS4 about 4m units ahead of the Vita in Japan, so at least 65-70% more than what the Vita sold. That is in line with the higher popularity of the PS4 library.

Not really . ps4 has monster hunter, dragon quest , final fantasy, kindom hearts, and almost every other big Japanese game franchise. looking at PSP how did that sell over 20 million in japan? The software according to vgchartz was abysmal for the Japanese market.  

PSP had several Monster hunter  games in Japan.



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gamingsoul said:
The problem Nintendo has is that it is competing against the ps4,Xbox,and pc, when a major developer makes a game like resi 2 it can be easily brought to those platforms, so the chances of success are much higher ,if the developer makes the game specially for switch and then port it to other platforms it will look like a game from the last generation so most likely it will get ignored or the developer would have to sell it for a smaller price, look for example at octopath traveler I don’t think anyone would be willing to pay 60 dollars for it on steam.
I think this problem will get worse once the ps5 and xboxtwo come out, Nintendo games will always be great and playing old ports on the go is nice but I really don’t see any future third party wise for the switch at least for new games

3DS was far, far behind PS4 and Xbox One in power yet it got new third party games after those systems came out. I see no reason why Switch won't follow suit.



RolStoppable said:
linkink said:

Not really . ps4 has monster hunter, dragon quest , final fantasy, kindom hearts, and almost every other big Japanese game franchise. looking at PSP how did that sell over 20 million in japan? The software according to vgchartz was abysmal for the Japanese market.  

The PSP had a few Monster Hunter games, not just one like the PS4.

PSP

It also had a few Final Fantasy games, Kingdom Hearts, Metal Gear Solid and God Eater which piggybacked on the Monster Hunter craze. The PSP didn't have a Dragon Quest, but the number of MH and FF games more than make up for that. One thing that the PSP list shows in general is the higher frequency of game releases back then.

PS4 has to those as well. Sure it doesn't have several Monsterhunter games, but it has much better versions of those other games then plus some. it's disingenuous to say  ps4 doesn't have the games to appeal to the Japanese, it sure does. it just seems like the market there is getting smaller. Even with the switch, it's not even beating 3ds sales, While software is crushing it. 

Last edited by linkink - on 29 May 2019

linkink said:
0D0 said:

I guess it's the same "big game" idea that happens in most gamers mind: AAA, ancient franchise, current-gen graphics, open world-ish, holywood-sized budget, million(s) seller, sort of everybody likes/buy, etc.

Not really. something like nioh, ninja gaiden, bloodborn, and sekiro would be fine. those aren't big franchises, 3 of them are new ip's. just something that takes advantage switch, and doesn't look like a 16 bit game or that it runs on a ps2. 

Not really? You're agreeing with me. It's everything I said less ancient franchise tho.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?