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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

Raven said:
tsogud said:

Seems like there's evidence to suggest that there has been either foul play or a big miscount of the votes especially for the Massachusetts primary:

"The 2020 Massachusetts Democratic Party presidential primary was held on March 3, 2020. Election results from the computerized vote counts differed significantly from the results projected by the exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN at poll’s closing. As in the 2016 Massachusetts primary between candidates Sanders and Clinton, disparities greatly exceed the exit poll’s margin of error. Sanders won Massachusetts in the exit poll and lost it in the computer count.

The discrepancies between the exit poll and the vote count for Sanders and Biden totaled 8.4%— double the 4.0% margin of error (95% CI) for their exit poll differences. Warren’s and Biden’s discrepancies also totaled 8.4%, again double the margin of error (95% CI) for their exit poll differences. . These discrepancies replicate the total discrepancy of 8.0% favoring Clinton in the 2016 Massachusetts Democratic Party primary between her and Sanders. This time two progressive candidates exhibit the same discrepancies now favoring Biden representing the establishment’s choice.

Presidential candidates Biden’s and Bloomberg’s vote counts exhibited the largest disparity from their exit poll projections. Biden’s unobservable computer-generated vote totals represented a 16.2% increase of his projected exit poll share. Given the 1,397,222 voters (97% reporting to date) in this election, he gained approximately 65,200 more votes than projected by the exit poll. Bloomberg increased his vote share by 29% and approximately 36,900 more votes than projected. Their gain came largely at the expense of candidates Sanders and Warren whose combined vote counts were 104,300 less than projected by the exit poll.

Noteworthy is the fact that the 2016 Massachusetts Republican Party exit poll taken at the same time and at the same precincts as the Democratic Party primary, and also with a crowded field of five candidates, was matched almost perfectly by the computer count—varying by less than one percent for each candidate.  

Exit polls are widely recognized—such as by, for example, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)—as a means for checking the validity of vote counts. The U.S. has financed exit polls in other countries to “ensure free and fair” elections."

Link to the report.

The report you linked to does not make any claims of there being foul play or rigging. You're honestly just trying to sow fear and doubt just so your preferred side looks more favorable. Reminds me of the current administration.

This is flaming and possible projection on your part. I'm only posting something I think is important to highlight, integrity of elections should be of utmost concern for everyone involved no matter political leanings. If it was against Bernie I would've posted it still, as no person is above free and fair elections.

I gave my opinion on the report before I posted it. Maybe I wasn't clear but the portion of my post that wasn't quoted was just my opinion of what could be the possibilities if the count is, in fact, wrong.

I'll also add that insinuating that I'm "Trump-like" is egregious and plain disgusting considering I'm a trans ethnically Jewish woc that stands against everything this administration has done. This current administration would rather me be dead, deported or both. That wasn't cool at all Raven, you'd do well to be more compassionate and understanding with people who are different from you.

Last edited by tsogud - on 13 March 2020

 

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Fun fact btw, At this point in time Obama was behind Clinton by 300 delegates... just saying



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uran10 said:

Fun fact btw, At this point in time Obama was behind Clinton by 300 delegates... just saying

Yep! Sanders just needs to overcome the Superdelegate gap just like Obama did.



tsogud said:
Raven said:

The report you linked to does not make any claims of there being foul play or rigging. You're honestly just trying to sow fear and doubt just so your preferred side looks more favorable. Reminds me of the current administration.

This is flaming and possible projection on your part. I'm only posting something I think is important to highlight, integrity of elections should be of utmost concern for everyone involved no matter political leanings. If it was against Bernie I would've posted it still, as no person is above free and fair elections.

I gave my opinion on the report before I posted it. Maybe I wasn't clear but the portion of my post that wasn't quoted was just my opinion of what could be the possibilities if the count is, in fact, wrong.

I'll also add that insinuating that I'm "Trump-like" is egregious and plain disgusting considering I'm a trans ethnically Jewish woc that stands against everything this administration has done. This current administration would rather me be dead, deported or both. That wasn't cool at all Raven, you'd do well to be more compassionate and understanding with people who are different from you.

Of course it's important to highlight and maintain the integrity of elections. You accusing and insinuating that the election is showing evidence of foul play with no professional background or evidence other than a single article that also makes no indication of rigging or foul play is irresponsible and not in line with your goal.

And please spare me the trotting out of reasons why you're incapable of holding a hypocritical opinion. You have no idea who I am and where I've come from either. I only have people's words and actions to go by. Not to mention I didn't say you were Trump-like. Trump has a long list of far more egregious qualities that I haven't even touched upon. My main point is that I just find it once again irresponsible for people to be making far-reaching and dire claims seemingly because it makes their stated position more favorable, which is only one of the MANY things that the current administration has against it that I am not lumping you in with in any way.



uran10 said:

Fun fact btw, At this point in time Obama was behind Clinton by 300 delegates... just saying

Where you getting your data?   according to this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries after march 11th (the next primary was not till april 22) obama was ahead 1562.5 to 1421.5.

EDIT:

You must be including super delegates.  The rules are different this year and there are no super delegates on first vote.  If no one wins on first vote then super delegates can vote on second vote.  Either way neither Biden or Bernie number include super delegates right now.  In other words Biden ahead on elected delegates just like obama was at this point.  Obama actually got the lead on super Tuesday and never lost it.  The same is the most likely outcome for Biden. 

Last edited by Cyran - on 13 March 2020

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Raven said:
tsogud said:

This is flaming and possible projection on your part. I'm only posting something I think is important to highlight, integrity of elections should be of utmost concern for everyone involved no matter political leanings. If it was against Bernie I would've posted it still, as no person is above free and fair elections.

I gave my opinion on the report before I posted it. Maybe I wasn't clear but the portion of my post that wasn't quoted was just my opinion of what could be the possibilities if the count is, in fact, wrong.

I'll also add that insinuating that I'm "Trump-like" is egregious and plain disgusting considering I'm a trans ethnically Jewish woc that stands against everything this administration has done. This current administration would rather me be dead, deported or both. That wasn't cool at all Raven, you'd do well to be more compassionate and understanding with people who are different from you.

Of course it's important to highlight and maintain the integrity of elections. You accusing and insinuating that the election is showing evidence of foul play with no professional background or evidence other than a single article that also makes no indication of rigging or foul play is irresponsible and not in line with your goal.

And please spare me the trotting out of reasons why you're incapable of holding a hypocritical opinion. You have no idea who I am and where I've come from either. I only have people's words and actions to go by. Not to mention I didn't say you were Trump-like. Trump has a long list of far more egregious qualities that I haven't even touched upon. My main point is that I just find it once again irresponsible for people to be making far-reaching and dire claims seemingly because it makes their stated position more favorable, which is only one of the MANY things that the current administration has against it that I am not lumping you in with in any way.

Honey, it's a report with verifiable and credible exit polling that details what happened and how it compares to 2016. Exit polling tends to be extremely accurate so too much of a swing either way is definitely cause for concern... Don't put words into my mouth, nothing I said was hypocritical and I wasn't trying to make any side look better or worse. It's not Biden's fault if it is true that there was foul play, and key word IF. You prolly just think it makes Biden look bad so you went on the offensive. It doesn't make Biden look bad and it doesn't make Bernie look good. This goes beyond either candidate and any egos or cult following surrounding them. It's really serious and to just write it off because you feel it makes Biden look bad is incredibly irresponsible.

Writing off factual data is one of MANY things the current administration has against it as well, don't follow their lead.

And I feel you definitely were lumping me in, why else would you even mention it? You shouldn't have said that at all.

Last edited by tsogud - on 13 March 2020

 

tsogud said:
Raven said:

Of course it's important to highlight and maintain the integrity of elections. You accusing and insinuating that the election is showing evidence of foul play with no professional background or evidence other than a single article that also makes no indication of rigging or foul play is irresponsible and not in line with your goal.

And please spare me the trotting out of reasons why you're incapable of holding a hypocritical opinion. You have no idea who I am and where I've come from either. I only have people's words and actions to go by. Not to mention I didn't say you were Trump-like. Trump has a long list of far more egregious qualities that I haven't even touched upon. My main point is that I just find it once again irresponsible for people to be making far-reaching and dire claims seemingly because it makes their stated position more favorable, which is only one of the MANY things that the current administration has against it that I am not lumping you in with in any way.

Honey, it's a report with verifiable and credible exit polling that details what happened and how it compares to 2016. Exit polling tends to be extremely accurate so too much of a swing either way is definitely cause for concern... Don't put words into my mouth, nothing I said was hypocritical and I wasn't trying to make any side look better or worse. It's not Biden's fault if it is true that there was foul play, and key word IF. You prolly just think it makes Biden look bad so you went on the offensive. It doesn't make Biden look bad and it doesn't make Bernie look good. This goes beyond either candidate and any egos or cult following surrounding them. It's really serious and to just write it off because you feel it makes Biden look bad is incredibly irresponsible.

Writing off factual data is one of MANY things the current administration has against it as well, don't follow their lead.

I don't give a crap about Biden. I care about putting forth honest arguments. 

As for your notion that exit polls are extremely accurate:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/election-exit-polls-accuracy-common-complaint/

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/upshot/exit-polls-why-they-so-often-mislead.html

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/8/13563308/exit-polls-2016-time-election-results

https://www.knowablemagazine.org/article/society/2019/election-polls-arent-broken-they-still-cant-predict-future

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/12/polls-2019-election

A variety of easily accessible sources doesn't seem to back that up. 



Raven said:
tsogud said:

Honey, it's a report with verifiable and credible exit polling that details what happened and how it compares to 2016. Exit polling tends to be extremely accurate so too much of a swing either way is definitely cause for concern... Don't put words into my mouth, nothing I said was hypocritical and I wasn't trying to make any side look better or worse. It's not Biden's fault if it is true that there was foul play, and key word IF. You prolly just think it makes Biden look bad so you went on the offensive. It doesn't make Biden look bad and it doesn't make Bernie look good. This goes beyond either candidate and any egos or cult following surrounding them. It's really serious and to just write it off because you feel it makes Biden look bad is incredibly irresponsible.

Writing off factual data is one of MANY things the current administration has against it as well, don't follow their lead.

I don't give a crap about Biden. I care about putting forth honest arguments. 

As for your notion that exit polls are extremely accurate:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/election-exit-polls-accuracy-common-complaint/

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/upshot/exit-polls-why-they-so-often-mislead.html

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/8/13563308/exit-polls-2016-time-election-results

https://www.knowablemagazine.org/article/society/2019/election-polls-arent-broken-they-still-cant-predict-future

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/12/polls-2019-election

A variety of easily accessible sources doesn't seem to back that up. 

I don't have the time to read and verify those right now but I will later. And if you're right then I'll apologize for making it seem like I was coming from a place of bad faith because in all honesty I really wasn't, I've just seen a lot of evidence and articles of the contrary.

Still, I did not whatsoever appreciate your rude comments.

Last edited by tsogud - on 13 March 2020

 

tsogud said:
Raven said:

I don't give a crap about Biden. I care about putting forth honest arguments. 

As for your notion that exit polls are extremely accurate:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/election-exit-polls-accuracy-common-complaint/

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/upshot/exit-polls-why-they-so-often-mislead.html

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/8/13563308/exit-polls-2016-time-election-results

https://www.knowablemagazine.org/article/society/2019/election-polls-arent-broken-they-still-cant-predict-future

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/12/polls-2019-election

A variety of easily accessible sources doesn't seem to back that up. 

I don't have the time to read and verify those right now but I will later. And if you're right then I'll apologize for making it seem like I was coming from a place of bad faith. I've just seen a lot of evidence and articles of the contrary.

Still, I did not whatsoever appreciate your rude comments.

I'm not hungry for an apology, if you take a look at the articles and consider them with an open mind, that's good enough for me. I don't appreciate being repeatedly mislabeled in here or accused of being part of one camp or another in here either, but it continues to happen and I find it incredibly frustrating.



Raven said:
tsogud said:

I don't have the time to read and verify those right now but I will later. And if you're right then I'll apologize for making it seem like I was coming from a place of bad faith. I've just seen a lot of evidence and articles of the contrary.

Still, I did not whatsoever appreciate your rude comments.

I'm not hungry for an apology, if you take a look at the articles and consider them with an open mind, that's good enough for me. I don't appreciate being repeatedly mislabeled in here or accused of being part of one camp or another in here either, but it continues to happen and I find it incredibly frustrating.

If you're correct I'd feel like you deserve one so you're getting one if it comes down to it.

Agreed. I feel I was being mislabeled and mischaracterized by you which was extremely frustrating to say the least.