By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Politics - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

Business Insider did a fun little experiment in which they "thanos-snapped" everyone out of the race except the top three, here's what they found:

"If we Thanos-snapped Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, O'Rourke, Yang, Klobuchar, Castro, Bennet, Bullock, Delaney, Gabbard, Ryan, Williamson, Steyer, and De Blasio out of existence, here's what the field would look like, according to the polls we've conducted this summer:

  • For Biden, we'd have a situation where 30% of his fans would like him and him alone, 37.4% percent deciding between him and Sanders or him and Warren, and a third of his supporters fine with all three.
    • That's compared to a current situation where 16.1% of those satisfied with him are satisfied with him alone, 15% have him as one of two choices, and 18% have him as one of three candidates they're satisfied with.
  • For Sanders, we'd have 24% of his backers liking him alone, 42% supporting either Warren or Biden, and a third liking all three.
    • Right now, 15% of his supporters like him alone, 18% of them like him and just one other person, and 19% like him and two other people, with the remaining supporters deciding between four or more. Those numbers are better than Biden's.
  • For Warren, 15% of her fans would approve of her and her alone, which is three times her current level but still half of Biden's lockdown rate. 51% of them would be satisfied with her and one other person, and a third would approve of all three.
    • As of now, only 5% like her and her alone, 12% like her and one other person, and 19% like her and two others.

It's also important to note that some things don't change. As of now, overall, Warren is known and satisfactory for 45% of Democrats, about 46% of respondents know of Sanders and would be satisfied with him, and 47% would be fine with Biden. Those numbers are the same whether you've got three contenders or 19."

https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-bernie-warren-what-if-only-2020-democrats-left-race-2019-9



 

Around the Network

Just another take on the whole Working Families Party thing, they're hiding the math but the weighted votes of the leaders probably is the only reason Warren got the score she did:
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/09/working-families-party-elizabeth-warren-endorsement



HylianSwordsman said:
Just another take on the whole Working Families Party thing, they're hiding the math but the weighted votes of the leaders probably is the only reason Warren got the score she did:
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/09/working-families-party-elizabeth-warren-endorsement

I found their leadership at the bottom of their wikipedia page and quickly looked at some of their twitter pages and most seem to have already been Warren supporters. For a party that fights for working families its sad to see they might be silencing the people within their organization.



Jaicee said:

Working families? Wait, I thought Elizabeth Warren was the candidate of the elites!

The real reason why many Bernie Sanders supporters now hate Warren more than they do Joe Biden and other actual neoliberal candidates is well-concentrated in the results of the first post-debate national poll conducted by NBC and the Wall Street Journal...

Biden: 31%
Warren: 25%
Sanders: 14%
Others: Single digits

...in the fact that Warren had her biggest rally to date just weeks ago (15,000 attendees), and in the fact that she has now won the endorsement of a notable labor-oriented organization that endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016. (One doubts these same people objected to the Working Families Party back then.)

In other words, Sanders now faces real competition for the progressive mantle. There doesn't appear to be any other real reason for this anti-Warren stuff we've been seeing from Bernie Sanders supporters of late. Bernie himself seems much cooler. He doesn't seem to have a problem with Liz Warren. The two have repeatedly backed each other up, in fact, in both of the last two debates they've been in. Sanders even suggested Warren as a running mate for Hillary Clinton back in 2016 and is the only person I've heard him even hint at as a possible running mate of his own should he win the nomination this time around.

Like you're saying, while there is competition, Sanders is on very friendly terms with Warren. I'm sure if Sanders would fall behind he'll back Warren in an instant. While we wouldn't get president Sanders then, we'd still get the next best thing, and he knows that, too.

One category where Warren would still have to work would be minorities as her voters are mostly white. But considering her numbers are rising I'm sure there is slowly some change incoming there already, as that can't just run on white voters anymore past a point of about 20-25%.



I feel that Warren is in a really good place and is setting herself up for success. More and more I think she's becoming the middle ground candidate of the top three, with which you have Biden's loyalty coming from more conservative and moderate voters and Sanders coming from further left. Biden's supporters are the most loyal and his older voters (with which he has a lot of) probably won't budge, with loyalty amongst Sanders supporters following close behind. Warren's supporters are the least loyal of the three but she has a good amount of support as the second or third choice among the supporters of the 20 candidates in the race. I feel she'd be comfortable to the people who view Biden as out of touch and too conservative and Sanders as the "crazy socialist lefty" that calls for a revolution. She could set herself up as an "every person" candidate but she'll need to work harder to gain support with poc and the working class.

Last edited by tsogud - on 18 September 2019

 

Around the Network

An interesting new Morning Consult poll surveying 7,487 individuals conducted between Sept. 13-15 shows the second choice among the top candidates in the primary race. The standings according to this poll are:

  1. Biden: 32%
  2. Sanders: 20%
  3. Warren: 18%
  4. Harris: 6%
  5. Buttigieg: 5%

Of Biden supporters their second choice are as follows:

  1. Sanders: 28%
  2. Warren: 26%
  3. Harris: 10%

Bernie supporters' second choice:

  1. Biden: 29%
  2. Warren: 28%
  3. Harris: 7%

Warren supporters' second choice:

  1. Sanders: 23%
  2. Biden: 22%
  3. Harris: 16%

Harris supporters' second choice:

  1. Warren: 28%
  2. Biden: 18%
  3. Sanders: 12%

Buttigieg supporters' second choice:

  1. Warren: 25%
  2. Biden: 23%
  3. Harris: 13%

They also tracked name recognition and favorability among the candidates, Bernie polled highest with 76% favorability, Biden with 73%, and Warren with 67%. Warren polled highest among the top three in the combined No Opinion/Never heard of with 18%, Biden with 8%, and Sanders with 7%.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Last edited by tsogud - on 18 September 2019

 

tsogud said:
Jaicee said:

The real reason why many Bernie Sanders supporters now hate Warren more than they do Joe Biden...

Got any actual data to back that claim up or are you just pulling that out of your ass?

I would provide some, but it looks like you've already done so yourself, lol!

*slaps head*



jason1637 said:
HylianSwordsman said:
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2019/09/sanders-vs-warren-who-has-more-working-class-donors/

An interesting breakdown on which professions contribute the most to each campaign.

Bernie is the actual working class candidate based on this.

While donor numbers are always significant, they're not necessarily THE most reliable gauge of support. Usually just asking people who they support is the most reliable gauge of that. That's what polls do.

When it comes to who working class voters favor most in the Democratic primary contest, it depends on the individual survey. For example, the most recent Economist/YouGov poll finds Elizabeth Warren to be the preferred candidate of more low-income voters than Bernie Sanders.

Among Voters Making Less Than $50,000/Year:

Biden: 27%
Warren: 22%
Sanders: 20%

(See page 98.)

This data might not help the narrative you and a couple others are setting up here that Bernie Sanders is the favored candidate of working class people.

In fact, on page 95 of the same survey results, you'll find that 53% of low-income voters say they're considering voting for Elizabeth Warren, as compared with 49% who say they're considering Joe Biden and 48% who say they're considering Bernie Sanders. This latter metric suggests that Warren also has the most room for growth in support among working class voters, as more low-income Americans are open to her campaign than to any other.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 18 September 2019

Also, it looks like Liz Warren's rally in New York City on Monday drew some 20,000 attendees, which would mark not only her most-attended rally of the campaign so far, but also possibly the largest rally to date in the whole 2020 Democratic contest.

Boom.



Biden, the choice for those who will settle in the name of defeating Trump?