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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch sold 14.49 million from Apr-Dec 2018. Apr-18 - Mar-19 Forecast 17 million

zorg1000 said:
Megiddo said:
How does the calendar year shipments for 2017 match up with 2018?

2017-14.86

2018-17.42

Very solid increase, thanks for the numbers.



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Great numbers and aligned with my prediction around April.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Train wreck said:
Farsala said:

Forecasts have much more to do with production imo, as well as their book keeping. They only plan to produce and ship 2.5m more for the rest of their FY. They won't manufacture significantly more or less than 17m. That means if sales all of a sudden skyrocketed to the point that they would need to produce 19-21m, we would see major stock problems.

I'm going to steal this and post it in the weekly Media Create threads to kind of remind people why the PS4 is selling the way it is.

I think the major price cut during the holidays in Japan was also a way to meet their shipment goals. USA was on track with their manufacturing and shipments projections so they avoided the price cut in December.



17 million is strange because it took them till quarter 3 to make it meaning they expected better results for holidays. I don't see them catching PS4. I still peg lifetime at 65 million. Sold.



I'm going to be gracious and predict 15.5 million for FY2020. I am predicting around 15 for the PS4. However, the PS5 announcement will crush PS4 sales unless its accompanied by a decent price drop.



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CosmicSex said:
I still peg lifetime at 65 million. Sold.

There is nothing logical about that prediction.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Noobie said:
Switch Q3-2018/19 Q3-2017/18 LTD FY2018/19 LTD FY2017/18 Lifetime FY Forecast (Orig)
Hardware (units) 9.42M(+30%) 7.24M 14.49M(+19%) 12.13M 32.27M 17.0M (20.0)
Software (units) 52.51M(+109%) 25.08M 94.64M(+100%) 47.10M 163.61M 110.0M
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)
3DSQ3-2018/19Q3-2017/18 LTD FY2018/19 LTD FY2017/18 Lifetime FY Forecast (Orig)
Hardware (units) 1.31M(-56%) 3.0M 2.31M(-61%) 5.86M 74.84M 2.6M (4.0)
Software (units) 4.81M(-72%) 17.43M 11.08M(-65%) 31.25M 375.97M 13.0M
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)

 

So about 70% of switch software sales are first party and they account for 85% of the revenue.  Crazy.  Good for nintendo's earnings  but 3rd parties probably want that closer to 50/50.



CosmicSex said:
17 million is strange because it took them till quarter 3 to make it meaning they expected better results for holidays. I don't see them catching PS4. I still peg lifetime at 65 million. Sold.

Honestly 70 million units is already a lock, and the floor of what the Switch will achieve. There is no way it does below that number.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

CosmicSex said:
 I still peg lifetime at 65 million. Sold.

Passes 32 million in less than 2 years.

Hasn't gotten a price cut or a hardware revision yet.

Still has heavy hitters like Animal Crossing and Core Pokemon in the pipe.

But nah, totally only gonna sell another 32.5 million for the entire rest of its lifespan.

C'mon, let's be real about this.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

gtjay1982 said:
Noobie said:
Switch Q3-2018/19 Q3-2017/18 LTD FY2018/19 LTD FY2017/18 Lifetime FY Forecast (Orig)
Hardware (units) 9.42M(+30%) 7.24M 14.49M(+19%) 12.13M 32.27M 17.0M (20.0)
Software (units) 52.51M(+109%) 25.08M 94.64M(+100%) 47.10M 163.61M 110.0M
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)
3DSQ3-2018/19Q3-2017/18 LTD FY2018/19 LTD FY2017/18 Lifetime FY Forecast (Orig)
Hardware (units) 1.31M(-56%) 3.0M 2.31M(-61%) 5.86M 74.84M 2.6M (4.0)
Software (units) 4.81M(-72%) 17.43M 11.08M(-65%) 31.25M 375.97M 13.0M
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)

 

So about 70% of switch software sales are first party and they account for 85% of the revenue.  Crazy.  Good for nintendo's earnings  but 3rd parties probably want that closer to 50/50.

3rd parties dont care about the 1st/3rd ratio, they care about if their games sell well and are profitable.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.