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Forums - Sales Discussion - SUPER EXTREME BOLD PREDICTION - Switch will sell 30m units in FY 2019 (April 2019 - March 2020)

I'm optimistic but even i see that as a bridge too far.



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Well my bold predictions in 2018 were a miss :(

Anyways for 30mil should of waited a bit to see where nintendo lands at this FY. 30mil would mean AC and Pokemon gen8 have to overly exceed expectations and all Quarters have to be up at least 75%-100% (with holdidays being a bit lower)

And price cut/revision with great (not good GREAT) bundles being sold next holiday.


30mil is crazy.... But i like bold so lets go!



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tbone51 said:
Well my bold predictions in 2018 were a miss :(

Anyways for 30mil should of waited a bit to see where nintendo lands at this FY. 30mil would mean AC and Pokemon gen8 have to overly exceed expectations and all Quarters have to be up at least 75%-100% (with holdidays being a bit lower)

And price cut/revision with great (not good GREAT) bundles being sold next holiday.


30mil is crazy.... But i like bold so lets go!

I like you're attitude!

 

@topic: well, 300$/€ bundles with Animal Crossing or Pokemon could push sales a lot



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If the next Mario, AC, next 3d Zelda, pkmn, mk9 and splatoon 3 are Released in the Same year, yes. If could Reach 30 Million.



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Just like in tbone51's SSBU bold prediction thread, it has to be noted that there is a difference between bold and stupid. In tbone's thread there was a guy who predicted 7m shipped or something, and that belongs in the category of stupid because it's so unrealistic that it is wrong by default.

Your prediction is stupid as well and you don't provide any sort of reasoning for it. That's different to how tbone frames his predictions, because he makes an effort to add credibility to the possibility of it happening. This thread looks like an experiment to gauge people's reactions rather than a sincere attempt at a bold prediction.



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Not happening. I think only DS ever topped that, barely, but don’t quote me on that.



S.Peelman said:
Not happening. I think only DS ever topped that, barely, but don’t quote me on that.

Your right, only way is if nintendo overhits many many marls for 30mil

 

*AC/Pokemon Are huge i mean HUGE 

*Price Cut takes a huge i mean HUGE effect

*Revision is a huge i mean HUGE hit (price/tech/etc)

*Middle Tier Games make a huge i mean HUGE splash (aka Fire Emblem/Yoshi/Luigi Mansion)

*All Quarters have to be up something like this...

Q1 4mil+

Q2 8mil (price cut+revision)

Q3 14mil+ (holidays)

Q4 8mil

 

Yeah thats seems bold as fuck, i mean you have to hit it out of the ballpark so many times. 25mil is possible but i want to see this FY first. Japan so far is up YoY so we have that but no other data yet



RolStoppable said:
Just like in tbone51's SSBU bold prediction thread, it has to be noted that there is a difference between bold and stupid. In tbone's thread there was a guy who predicted 7m shipped or something, and that belongs in the category of stupid because it's so unrealistic that it is wrong by default.

Your prediction is stupid as well and you don't provide any sort of reasoning for it. That's different to how tbone frames his predictions, because he makes an effort to add credibility to the possibility of it happening. This thread looks like an experiment to gauge people's reactions rather than a sincere attempt at a bold prediction.

Animal Crossing, YoKai Watch 4, Pokemon are the best blockbusters for Japan market only, all three at the same level there. If Game Freak does it right Pokemon 8th Gen could be a HUGE system seller WW, even more how much the series did in the past (we also know Pokemon is the most profitable franchise in the world, above Star Wars and Hello Kitty). Animal Crossing is one of the most important franchise in Nintendo's history, alongside Zelda, Mario (3D, 2D and Kart) and Pokemon, and I see how much this title is anticipated. Said this we don't know so much of Nintendo's 2019 games, they might come up with other games or price cuts or even cheaper bundles, who knows. PlayStation and Xbox wil be down YoY and that could bring people that bought a PS4/XboxOne in the past two years to buy Switch this year.

 

You're right about I haven't provided any sort of reasoning, and I'm sorry for that, I forgot to write this in the OP, shame on me

Last edited by AlbiNecroxz - on 26 January 2019

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AlbiNecroxz said:
RolStoppable said:
Just like in tbone51's SSBU bold prediction thread, it has to be noted that there is a difference between bold and stupid. In tbone's thread there was a guy who predicted 7m shipped or something, and that belongs in the category of stupid because it's so unrealistic that it is wrong by default.

Your prediction is stupid as well and you don't provide any sort of reasoning for it. That's different to how tbone frames his predictions, because he makes an effort to add credibility to the possibility of it happening. This thread looks like an experiment to gauge people's reactions rather than a sincere attempt at a bold prediction.

Animal Crossing, YoKai Watch 4, Pokemon are the best blockbusters for Japan market only, all three at the same level there. If Game Freak does it right Pokemon 8th Gen could be a HUGE system seller WW, even more how much the series did in the past (we also know Pokemon is the most profitable franchise in the world, above Star Wars and Hello Kitty). Animal Crossing is one of the most important franchise in Nintendo's history, alongside Zelda, Mario (3D, 2D and Kart) and Pokemon, and I see how much this title is anticipated. Said this we don't know so much of Nintendo's 2019 games, they might come up with other games or price cuts or even cheaper bundles, who knows. PlayStation and Xbox wil be down YoY and that could bring people that bought a PS4/XboxOne in the past two years to buy Switch this year.

 

You're right about I haven't provided any sort of reasoning, and I'm sorry for that, I forgot to write this in the OP, shame on me

Like i wrote in my post, a ton of things have to happen. In Japan it would have to top 3ds best year and by far. Its defintely possible but would need to be closer to DS prime year. 

 

AC has a huge chance to outshine in terms pf system sellers but thats because its demographic is different from what switch audiences is now imo.

 

Pokemon Gen 8 would need to be a bigger deal than Sun/Moon and every gen outside of gen 1 is. Gamefreak can do this as a huge jump ala BotW can happen but as a pokemon fan im still worried cuz Gamefreak takes the safest route for its games (pls openworld pokemon lol)

 

And Price Cut and Revision has to be a hit (well price cut is automatically an already known factor). Revision im not sure what they can do yet 

 

At the very least we all acknowlege you have SUPER EXTREME BOLD in the title cuz thats what this is. Chances of this happening are so low but i wouldnt put it at 0%. I put it just under 2 maybe 3% :P

 

Like i said, they need to overachieve many boundaries for a 30mil ship FY. If they manage to pull that off we would have a system that hit close to 70mil in just 3 years. Thats insane xD