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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 1, December 31 - January 6, 2019.

Mbolibombo on 14 January 2019
colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

Animal Crossing was 2012 in Japan.

The difference is that 3DS had a price cut in year 1 and a revision in year 2, Switch is entering year 3 with neither of those things meaning the trajectory will likely be different from 3DS.

Media Create sales 3DS

2011-4.28m

2012-5.50m

2013-4.88m

2014-3.18m

3DS sales started out really slow, the price was too high and the software output too low, but the price cut in summer followed by big games in the fall led to a record first year.

Momentum from late 2011 continued in 2012 and this is when the system started to get a really steady output of big games and a revision. This was the 3rd best year for any system ever in Japan.

2013 was another amazing year but it's extremely hard to top what 2012 had and it suffered a modest decline. And by the beginning of 2014, 3DS already had an install base approaching 15 million so market saturation started to kick in causing a large drop in year 4 despite still selling strong.

 

I think the sales curve for Switch will be different

2017-3.31m

2018-3.53m

2019-~4.2m

2020-~3.7m

Instead of large increase followed by small decrease followed by large decrease, I think Switch will be small increase, big increase, small decrease in year 2, 3 & 4.

Oh, true about Animal Crossing New Leaf. VGC database showed 2013. My mistake.

Yeah, i agree with you. I expect Switch selling more, no less this year. But i just read a post before saying Pokemon, AC, Luigi's Mansion, Yokai Watch, etc... were launching this year on Switch and it remind me the lineup was very similar to 3DS in 2013.

So, basically i was trying to say, that a good lineup, is not a gurantee of better sales. Price and momentum are even more important.

Pretty much, but do you know what is also pretty important? ;P

3DS XL launched in July 2012 which pushed a ton of hardware that year :> I believe it sold over 2M in less than 6 months despite not being the go-to SKU until 2013.

Wonder if it will have a similar effect for the Switch if the rumors are true?



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drinkandswim on 14 January 2019

The 2019 Switch price cut isnt going to be because of lack of demand. It is going to be to expand (maximize) the Install base ahead of Next Gen.



colafitte on 14 January 2019
Mbolibombo said:
colafitte said:

Oh, true about Animal Crossing New Leaf. VGC database showed 2013. My mistake.

Yeah, i agree with you. I expect Switch selling more, no less this year. But i just read a post before saying Pokemon, AC, Luigi's Mansion, Yokai Watch, etc... were launching this year on Switch and it remind me the lineup was very similar to 3DS in 2013.

So, basically i was trying to say, that a good lineup, is not a gurantee of better sales. Price and momentum are even more important.

Pretty much, but do you know what is also pretty important? ;P

3DS XL launched in July 2012 which pushed a ton of hardware that year :> I believe it sold over 2M in less than 6 months despite not being the go-to SKU until 2013.

Wonder if it will have a similar effect for the Switch if the rumors are true?

If there is a new model, i'm pretty sure it will have an effect, of course, but until confirmation, i will make my prediction based in no new model. That's why my prediction for Switch is very optimistic for me this year. It's 3'8M with $300 most of the year with a $50 price discount by the second half or last third of the year. If the price cut is earlier or there is a new model, the sales are going to be even better.

I must add though, than if those things happens, i don't expect more than 4'5M in sales. It will provide around a plus 500k in sales.

Last edited by colafitte - on 14 January 2019

outlawauron on 14 January 2019
Eagle367 said:
outlawauron said:

"Dramatic sales and price drops"? You realize that the deals we have in the West are much better than what they're currently offering in Japan...

While I definitely think it'll be down YoY, it's still going to get a ton of games this year and push HW to respectable levels.

So? Does that negate that they are still dramatic for the Japanese market? No it does not. Does it also negate the fact that sales of consoles suddenly dip in Japan over the course of even half a year? If no, then what does your first paragraph have anything to do with my point?

As for the 2nd point, that's the thing I'm saying. I'm saying PS4 sales will drop by a significant amount while you are contradicting that. I am saying that looking at previous consoles in Japan while you are probably looking at it from how it does in the rest of the world where the decline is much slower. We shall see who's right.

 Either way PS4 has no ammo that can dent the Japanese market at this point. No huge games for Japan nor the possibility of a dramatic price cut. I mean they were selling cheaper PS4 consoles with TWO games. How far can they increase the value of the box? Next year is not gonna be good for overall consoles sales but the switch will be rocking. That much is quite obvious. Of course I;m making prediction's realising the fact that o I can be dead wrong and PS4 sales increase yoy. But whatsw the point of making a prediction of you know with 100% certainty you are right. That's call foreshadowing and not predicting

All I was doing was putting a damper on your hyperbole. You're painting a picture that is not reality, imo.

You're saying that it'll sell less than 1.3 million in 2019, (you didn't give a number, just a lot of non-specific language like "significant drop") but predicting something in the 1.3-4 range is a fairly moderate prediction. There's more than enough announced in addition to guarantees later in the year (new COD, Battlefield, etc) that do very well on the platform. For a platform that has several 250k+ sellers left and a few 500k+ sellers, I think you're a bit down on the platform. 3DS and Vita were down so hard because games stopped releasing and/or their successor hit the market. PS4 will still be getting every relevant major release (not published by Nintendo) for the next 2 years.



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Eagle367 on 14 January 2019
outlawauron said:
Eagle367 said:

So? Does that negate that they are still dramatic for the Japanese market? No it does not. Does it also negate the fact that sales of consoles suddenly dip in Japan over the course of even half a year? If no, then what does your first paragraph have anything to do with my point?

As for the 2nd point, that's the thing I'm saying. I'm saying PS4 sales will drop by a significant amount while you are contradicting that. I am saying that looking at previous consoles in Japan while you are probably looking at it from how it does in the rest of the world where the decline is much slower. We shall see who's right.

 Either way PS4 has no ammo that can dent the Japanese market at this point. No huge games for Japan nor the possibility of a dramatic price cut. I mean they were selling cheaper PS4 consoles with TWO games. How far can they increase the value of the box? Next year is not gonna be good for overall consoles sales but the switch will be rocking. That much is quite obvious. Of course I;m making prediction's realising the fact that o I can be dead wrong and PS4 sales increase yoy. But whatsw the point of making a prediction of you know with 100% certainty you are right. That's call foreshadowing and not predicting

All I was doing was putting a damper on your hyperbole. You're painting a picture that is not reality, imo.

You're saying that it'll sell less than 1.3 million in 2019, (you didn't give a number, just a lot of non-specific language like "significant drop") but predicting something in the 1.3-4 range is a fairly moderate prediction. There's more than enough announced in addition to guarantees later in the year (new COD, Battlefield, etc) that do very well on the platform. For a platform that has several 250k+ sellers left and a few 500k+ sellers, I think you're a bit down on the platform. 3DS and Vita were down so hard because games stopped releasing and/or their successor hit the market. PS4 will still be getting every relevant major release (not published by Nintendo) for the next 2 years.

I'll say 800k to a mil. There you go. Call of duty never caused a growth in the japanese console hardware neither do the ones I know that are coming to pS4. No MonHun, no dragon quest etc. I'll eat crow if i'm wrong(please don't take this literally since I can't eat crow for religious reasons) but you have to eat crow if you're wrong.



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Supermario28 on 16 January 2019

Top HW, 2019 Week 2, Japan
(Media Create)
1. Switch : 78 056 [7 124 822]
2. PS4 : 18 301 [7 753 917]
3. 3DS : 5 705 [24 390 777]
4. Vita : 1 711 [5 971 449]
5. XBO : 50 [104 928]

Switch almost doubles the sales of same week last year (40k)

1. NSMBUDX : 166k
2. SSBU : 63k [2,68M]
3. Tales of Vesperia PS4 : 42k
4. Tales of Vesperia Switch : 27k
5. DQ Builders 2 Switch : 20k [199k]
6. Mario Party : 19k [955k]
7. DQ Builders 2 PS4 : 18k [197k]
8. Pokémon LG : 15k [1,41M]
9. MK8DX : 15k [2,07M]

NSMBU did almost as good as the first week of the original on WiiU (171k). But if we add the first week of New super Luigi U on wii U it's 197k.
166k is not so bad but not great.

 

EDIT: it's 163k for NSMBU on Wii U frist week so it brings the combined sales of ~189k

Last edited by Supermario28 - on 16 January 2019

OTBWY on 16 January 2019

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The_Liquid_Laser on 16 January 2019
drinkandswim said:
The 2019 Switch price cut isnt going to be because of lack of demand. It is going to be to expand (maximize) the Install base ahead of Next Gen.

I think this is a good point, and it suggests why there might not be a price cut this year.  It depends on how many Switches they are able to manufacture.  It they feel supplies are good then they will probably cut the price.  But remember in 2017 there was a shortage on Tegra chips.  If that happens again, then Nintendo is not going to cut the price this year.



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Miyamotoo on 16 January 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:
drinkandswim said:
The 2019 Switch price cut isnt going to be because of lack of demand. It is going to be to expand (maximize) the Install base ahead of Next Gen.

I think this is a good point, and it suggests why there might not be a price cut this year.  It depends on how many Switches they are able to manufacture.  It they feel supplies are good then they will probably cut the price.  But remember in 2017 there was a shortage on Tegra chips.  If that happens again, then Nintendo is not going to cut the price this year.

Switch entering its 3rd year on market, they are past any kind possible shortages, and we can actualy expecting some kind of revision this year too, also price cut this year is almost certaing thing in any case (through revision or through current model).



zorg1000 on 16 January 2019
Supermario28 said:

NSMBU did almost as good as the first week of the original on WiiU (171k).

Mario did slightly better than the original according to Media Create, 166k vs 163k



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