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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 1, December 31 - January 6, 2019.

Miyamotoo on 11 January 2019
colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

They will eventually try to reach that sub-$200 price point but I dont expect it this year. If they do reduce the price this year, I would expect $249.

Mmmm, if the low the price to $249 this year....mmmm, 4M+ is a lock i guess. But still i think lowing the price is a sign of "weakness" and Switch is not weak at all in Japan. I really think Nintendo is going to try reach 4M for $300 all year.

So I guess Wii U didnt show any sing of "weakness" because never went past $300. :D

On more serious note, most of consoles had price cut buy 3rd year including all best selling platforms like PS2, DS, PS1, Wii and PS4 (actually PS4 had 2 price cuts before its 4. year on market). Panic price cut like 3DS had only 4 months after launch was sing of weakness of 3DS sales, but you hardly can say same thing for all platforms I mentioned and Switch will not be different. Also, price cut doesnt mean less profit, but buy time cost of productions of consoles are getting down, so in most cases they maintain same profit margin despite price cut while especially when revision is followed buy price cut, in same time they have higher HW and SW sales.

Saying all that, Switch receiving official price cut in 2019. is almost certain thing same like receiving revision, and that alone will push sales above 4m not to mentione much stronger Switch 2019. lineup compared to 2018.



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Miyamotoo on 11 January 2019

01./01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 258.974 / 2.614.160 (-6%)
02./02. [NSW] Super Mario Party # (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 95.102 / 936.140 (-4%)
03./03. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! # (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980) - 68.308 / 1.399.595 (+4%)
04./04. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 55.758 / 2.055.899 (+33%)
06./06. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 43.033 / 2.882.819 (+40%)
07./09. [NSW] Minecraft # (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 42.845 / 549.754 (+58%)
11./10. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 19.363 / 1.246.656 (+27%)
12./13. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey # (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 16.896 / 1.931.675 (+35%)
14./14. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} (¥5.980) - 14.769 / 717.643 (+35%)
16./18. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces (Nintendo) {2018.06.22} (¥5.980) - 10.468 / 411.002 (+35%)
19./24. [NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker (Nintendo) {2018.07.13} (¥3.980) - 7.718 / 177.872

Crazy legs of Nintendo Switch games are continue.



colafitte on 11 January 2019
Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

Mmmm, if the low the price to $249 this year....mmmm, 4M+ is a lock i guess. But still i think lowing the price is a sign of "weakness" and Switch is not weak at all in Japan. I really think Nintendo is going to try reach 4M for $300 all year.

So I guess Wii U didnt show any sing of "weakness" because never went past $300. :D

On more serious note, most of consoles had price cut buy 3rd year including all best selling platforms like PS2, DS, PS1, Wii and PS4 (actually PS4 had 2 price cuts before its 4. year on market). Panic price cut like 3DS had only 4 months after launch was sing of weakness of 3DS sales, but you hardly can say same thing for all platforms I mentioned and Switch will not be different. Also, price cut doesnt mean less profit, but buy time cost of productions of consoles are getting down, so in most cases they maintain same profit margin despite price cut while especially when revision is followed buy price cut, in same time they have higher HW and SW sales.

Saying all that, Switch receiving official price cut in 2019. is almost certain thing same like receiving revision, and that alone will push sales above 4m not to mentione much stronger Switch 2019. lineup compared to 2018.

Touche if true in Japan. 

So WiiU never received a price cut in Japan for less than $300?? Well... That's really bold.

And yes, most probably there will be a price cut, but it does not mean Nintendo won't try to hold the $300 price the longest possible. 



Miyamotoo on 11 January 2019
colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

So I guess Wii U didnt show any sing of "weakness" because never went past $300. :D

On more serious note, most of consoles had price cut buy 3rd year including all best selling platforms like PS2, DS, PS1, Wii and PS4 (actually PS4 had 2 price cuts before its 4. year on market). Panic price cut like 3DS had only 4 months after launch was sing of weakness of 3DS sales, but you hardly can say same thing for all platforms I mentioned and Switch will not be different. Also, price cut doesnt mean less profit, but buy time cost of productions of consoles are getting down, so in most cases they maintain same profit margin despite price cut while especially when revision is followed buy price cut, in same time they have higher HW and SW sales.

Saying all that, Switch receiving official price cut in 2019. is almost certain thing same like receiving revision, and that alone will push sales above 4m not to mentione much stronger Switch 2019. lineup compared to 2018.

Touche if true in Japan. 

So WiiU never received a price cut in Japan for less than $300?? Well... That's really bold.

 

And yes, most probably there will be a price cut, but it does not mean Nintendo won't try to hold the $300 price the longest possible. 

Not just in Japan but world wide, Nintendo tends to have world wide price cuts not just on single market.

No they want, they want to have lower price point soonest is possible to Switch have even bigger apealing on market (same like all platforms that I mentioned), like I wrote buy time cost of productions of consoles are getting down so Nintendo can maintain same profit margin even with price cut, and espacily if they have new revision.



colafitte on 11 January 2019
Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

Touche if true in Japan. 

So WiiU never received a price cut in Japan for less than $300?? Well... That's really bold.

 

And yes, most probably there will be a price cut, but it does not mean Nintendo won't try to hold the $300 price the longest possible. 

Not just in Japan but world wide, Nintendo tends to have world wide price cuts not just on single market.

No they want, they want to have lower price point soonest is possible to Switch have even bigger apealing on market (same like all platforms that I mentioned), like I wrote buy time cost of productions of consoles are getting down so Nintendo can maintain same profit margin even with price cut, and espacily if they have new revision.

So WiiU was never below $300 not just in Japan, but worldwide???? That explain a lot of things....

I'm not saying Switch won't receive a price cut this year, but Nintendo has showed recently  that are reluctant on dropping the price in their consoles, possibly because they're not cheap to produce at all. So, my theory is, that most of 2019, Switch will still be at $300 in Japan (because there will be a demand similar to last year still), and maybe, at the last quarter of the year, a $50 discount will come.



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Miyamotoo on 11 January 2019
colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

Not just in Japan but world wide, Nintendo tends to have world wide price cuts not just on single market.

No they want, they want to have lower price point soonest is possible to Switch have even bigger apealing on market (same like all platforms that I mentioned), like I wrote buy time cost of productions of consoles are getting down so Nintendo can maintain same profit margin even with price cut, and espacily if they have new revision.

So WiiU was never below $300 not just in Japan, but worldwide???? That explain a lot of things....

I'm not saying Switch won't receive a price cut this year, but Nintendo has showed recently  that are reluctant on dropping the price in their consoles, possibly because they're not cheap to produce at all. So, my theory is, that most of 2019, Switch will still be at $300 in Japan (because there will be a demand similar to last year still), and maybe, at the last quarter of the year, a $50 discount will come.

Not realy, Nintendo realised that price cut for Wii U wouldnt change much in any case, and in same time period they will already selling 3DS after price cut at loss.

Again, you missing clear point, almost every console despite how successful it was received price cut buy 3rd year on market lastest and that includes top 5 best selling gaming platforms. Switch is selling from launch with profit, and costs can only go down buy time. Your theory is probably wrong because like I wrote Nintendo doing world wide price cuts, not just on some markets, so expecting price cut only in Japan for Switch is unlikely. Chances are like 90% that Switch will have price cut this year and that will have some kind of revision.



colafitte on 11 January 2019
Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

So WiiU was never below $300 not just in Japan, but worldwide???? That explain a lot of things....

I'm not saying Switch won't receive a price cut this year, but Nintendo has showed recently  that are reluctant on dropping the price in their consoles, possibly because they're not cheap to produce at all. So, my theory is, that most of 2019, Switch will still be at $300 in Japan (because there will be a demand similar to last year still), and maybe, at the last quarter of the year, a $50 discount will come.

Not realy, Nintendo realised that price cut for Wii U wouldnt change much in any case, and in same time period they will already selling 3DS after price cut at loss.

Again, you missing clear point, almost every console despite how successful it was received price cut buy 3rd year on market lastest and that includes top 5 best selling gaming platforms. Switch is selling from launch with profit, and costs can only go down buy time. Your theory is probably wrong because like I wrote Nintendo doing world wide price cuts, not just on some markets, so expecting price cut only in Japan for Switch is unlikely. Chances are like 90% that Switch will have price cut this year and that will have some kind of revision.

I did not said i expect a price cut just in Japan. We are in Japan sales thread and i'm talking about what i think is going to happen in Japan. But i expect the same price cut worldwide too.

We are saying the same Miyamotoo, both are saying a price cut is coming this year. Maybe you expect it earlier and me a little bit later, but that's all.



Miyamotoo on 11 January 2019
colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

Not realy, Nintendo realised that price cut for Wii U wouldnt change much in any case, and in same time period they will already selling 3DS after price cut at loss.

Again, you missing clear point, almost every console despite how successful it was received price cut buy 3rd year on market lastest and that includes top 5 best selling gaming platforms. Switch is selling from launch with profit, and costs can only go down buy time. Your theory is probably wrong because like I wrote Nintendo doing world wide price cuts, not just on some markets, so expecting price cut only in Japan for Switch is unlikely. Chances are like 90% that Switch will have price cut this year and that will have some kind of revision.

I did not said i expect a price cut just in Japan. We are in Japan sales thread and i'm talking about what i think is going to happen in Japan. But i expect the same price cut worldwide too.

We are saying the same Miyamotoo, both are saying a price cut is coming this year. Maybe you expect it earlier and me a little bit later, but that's all.

Agree, price cut also depends from when could revision come, but also from Animal Crossing and Pokemon gen 8 dates launch.



Eagle367 on 12 January 2019
zorg1000 said:
Eagle367 said:

I'm gonna say 13 mil minimum with the possibility of 14 mil. Next year Vita goes away, 3ds falls further and PS4 is out of things to pull sales from, so NS will have the Japanese theatre all to itself. Combine that with Pokémon and animal crossing and I think it may very well do 5mil or even 6mil+

Ya that's not happening, that would be 6.2-7.2 million

What? What do you mean?



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Eagle367 on 12 January 2019
outlawauron said:
Eagle367 said:

Judging by how dramatically sales of 3ds, Vita, etc fell in the region, I don't think it will reach it. We shall see though. But this year required Monhun and dramatic sales and piece drops to get the PS4 there. The PS4 is running out of ammo in Japan.

"Dramatic sales and price drops"? You realize that the deals we have in the West are much better than what they're currently offering in Japan...

While I definitely think it'll be down YoY, it's still going to get a ton of games this year and push HW to respectable levels.

So? Does that negate that they are still dramatic for the Japanese market? No it does not. Does it also negate the fact that sales of consoles suddenly dip in Japan over the course of even half a year? If no, then what does your first paragraph have anything to do with my point?

As for the 2nd point, that's the thing I'm saying. I'm saying PS4 sales will drop by a significant amount while you are contradicting that. I am saying that looking at previous consoles in Japan while you are probably looking at it from how it does in the rest of the world where the decline is much slower. We shall see who's right.

 Either way PS4 has no ammo that can dent the Japanese market at this point. No huge games for Japan nor the possibility of a dramatic price cut. I mean they were selling cheaper PS4 consoles with TWO games. How far can they increase the value of the box? Next year is not gonna be good for overall consoles sales but the switch will be rocking. That much is quite obvious. Of course I;m making prediction's realising the fact that o I can be dead wrong and PS4 sales increase yoy. But whatsw the point of making a prediction of you know with 100% certainty you are right. That's call foreshadowing and not predicting



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also