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Forums - Sales - Global Hardware 8 December 2018 (Smash Week)

zorg1000 said:
trunkswd said:
Adjustments are still to take place. Only concrete numbers we have are out of Japan for the week. Yes some information from the UK, but no exact figures. As some have also pointed out this is only two days for Smash. PS4 and X1 are up slightly worldwide compared to last year looking at the figures. Switch is up massively thanks to Smash and only being the second holiday.

PS4 is up like ~50% YoY in USA

USA Week ending Dec 9, 2017-221,535

NA Week ending Dec 8, 2018-361,148 (I'm assuming ~330k for USA)

Seems like it should be adjusted down by 100k or more.

 

With that said, thanks for all the hard work you do for this site!

2017 didnt have games like GOW, RDR2 and Spiderman driving sales though. At least two f three of those titles has to count for something. 



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Amnesia said:

I don't want to debate this, I disagree with your way of defining the "Pro" thing.

Or let me call it rather "mid gen refresh" instead of "Pro".

 

I was asking for a solid element which can tell us that we can expect the "Switch Pro" in 2019.

I also believe there will be no "Switch Pro". 

At least not t the effect some seem t think there will be. 

There will however be a revision, maybe that comes this year or next but it will come. and these are what I think it will bring with it.

  • tegra X1 apu shrunk from 20nm to maybe 14nm/12nm
  • size reduction from above results in a fanless unit.
  • size reduction also means the apu can be upclocked by abut 10-20% giving "better performance"
  • lower power draw as a result of smaller fab apu means longer battery life while using the same battery size.
  • possibly larger 1W display but maintaining the same physical footprint. So smaller bezels.
  • larger internal flash drive.
Thats it. Those changes will make for a meaningful "upgrade" while also managing to bring the price down. More power has never been the primary driving force with regards to nintendo and their hardware. They will instead focus on ways to make it cheaper and easier for them to make. They more not even drop the price f the revised model.


Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

PS4 is up like ~50% YoY in USA

USA Week ending Dec 9, 2017-221,535

NA Week ending Dec 8, 2018-361,148 (I'm assuming ~330k for USA)

Seems like it should be adjusted down by 100k or more.

 

With that said, thanks for all the hard work you do for this site!

2017 didnt have games like GOW, RDR2 and Spiderman driving sales though. At least two f three of those titles has to count for something. 

Not really, those games will help prevent a severe  decline but they arent going to increase sales by over 50% this far away from launch. Those games didnt prevent November from being down ~13%YoY so why would they give December a ~50% increase?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic said:
Amnesia said:

I don't want to debate this, I disagree with your way of defining the "Pro" thing.

Or let me call it rather "mid gen refresh" instead of "Pro".

 

I was asking for a solid element which can tell us that we can expect the "Switch Pro" in 2019.

I also believe there will be no "Switch Pro". 

At least not t the effect some seem t think there will be. 

There will however be a revision, maybe that comes this year or next but it will come. and these are what I think it will bring with it.

 

  • tegra X1 apu shrunk from 20nm to maybe 14nm/12nm
  • size reduction from above results in a fanless unit.
  • size reduction also means the apu can be upclocked by abut 10-20% giving "better performance"
  • lower power draw as a result of smaller fab apu means longer battery life while using the same battery size.
  • possibly larger 1W display but maintaining the same physical footprint. So smaller bezels.
  • larger internal flash drive.
Thats it. Those changes will make for a meaningful "upgrade" while also managing to bring the price down. More power has never been the primary driving force with regards to nintendo and their hardware. They will instead focus on ways to make it cheaper and easier for them to make. They more not even drop the price f the revised model.

 

Wouldnt it make more sense to just go with the existing Tegra X2 instead of redesigning the Tegra X1?

X2 has the same performance at half the power draw or twice the performance at the same power draw. X2 could be used for both a Lite & Pro revision.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

MS and Sony have been eating one another marketshare plus organic growth, Nintendo on Wii, WiiU and so far Switch haven't affected that at all.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

I also believe there will be no "Switch Pro". 

At least not t the effect some seem t think there will be. 

There will however be a revision, maybe that comes this year or next but it will come. and these are what I think it will bring with it.

 

  • tegra X1 apu shrunk from 20nm to maybe 14nm/12nm
  • size reduction from above results in a fanless unit.
  • size reduction also means the apu can be upclocked by abut 10-20% giving "better performance"
  • lower power draw as a result of smaller fab apu means longer battery life while using the same battery size.
  • possibly larger 1W display but maintaining the same physical footprint. So smaller bezels.
  • larger internal flash drive.
Thats it. Those changes will make for a meaningful "upgrade" while also managing to bring the price down. More power has never been the primary driving force with regards to nintendo and their hardware. They will instead focus on ways to make it cheaper and easier for them to make. They more not even drop the price f the revised model.

 

Wouldnt it make more sense to just go with the existing Tegra X2 instead of redesigning the Tegra X1?

X2 has the same performance at half the power draw or twice the performance at the same power draw. X2 could be used for both a Lite & Pro revision.

Would be much easier, and comes with the added benefit of having double the RAM bandwith, so any game that got choked there could run better despite same calculating power, and the whole at about 30-50% less power draw compared to the X1.

It would also make a "pro"model easier, as it could literally be the same chip, just clocked faster to reach about the same power draw as the X1 in the OG Switch



Intrinsic said:
Amnesia said:

I don't want to debate this, I disagree with your way of defining the "Pro" thing.

Or let me call it rather "mid gen refresh" instead of "Pro".

 

I was asking for a solid element which can tell us that we can expect the "Switch Pro" in 2019.

I also believe there will be no "Switch Pro". 

At least not t the effect some seem t think there will be. 

There will however be a revision, maybe that comes this year or next but it will come. and these are what I think it will bring with it.

 

  • tegra X1 apu shrunk from 20nm to maybe 14nm/12nm
  • size reduction from above results in a fanless unit.
  • size reduction also means the apu can be upclocked by abut 10-20% giving "better performance"
  • lower power draw as a result of smaller fab apu means longer battery life while using the same battery size.
  • possibly larger 1W display but maintaining the same physical footprint. So smaller bezels.
  • larger internal flash drive.

 

These are just about the same nodes in terms of size and power consumption, though. In fact 14 - 12 nm is larger, but with FinFets. Any meaninful die shrink would be 10 nm or 7 nm, and possibly the former since Nintendo hasn't ever woven a relatively novel die shrink into their consoles. That is, if they do it at all, none of their home consoles has ever gotten a meaningful hardware revision since the 1997 SNES I think? Though of course handheld is another story entirely.



 

 

 

 

 

zorg1000 said:

Wouldnt it make more sense to just go with the existing Tegra X2 instead of redesigning the Tegra X1?

X2 has the same performance at half the power draw or twice the performance at the same power draw. X2 could be used for both a Lite & Pro revision.

Actually it would. Forgot abut the X2. Its already a on a 16nm process to and been in circulation since 2016. 

Its almost identical to the X1 barring a smaller fab process which allows for higher clocks and lower power draw. GPU wise they have the same number of cores.

But I don't think it will be used for a lite+pro model. Thats just bad form, putting the same APU in two different devices but telling people that in one device it performs better and in another its worse. 

The X2 however does check all the right boxes for fr a revision more in line with what I mentioned. But then there is the price. We dont know if availability is why nintendo went with the X1 since the X2 didnt really come around till 2016 or if the option was there but was more expensive.... being Nvidia.

If the issue is a price thing and the X2 costs more than the X1 then there is no way nintendo will go with that. And the only real way to drop prices of these chips is to move onto a smaller fab process, and this is something that is more out of necessity because it will actually cost more to keep insisting for a 20nm processor when the foundry making them has mostly shifted its business to 14nm and 7nm chips. 

That revision when it comes will offer slightly better performance (think XB1s improvements over XB1) and all round better efficiency (less heat, less power draw, longer battery life..etc) and may even be cheaper if they go to a smaller (14nm/7nm) fabrication process which is something nvidia MUST do eventually for their tegra line. But this notion of two models...... doesn't take, especially if it would entail using the same processor clocked at different speeds across different skus. 



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Wouldnt it make more sense to just go with the existing Tegra X2 instead of redesigning the Tegra X1?

X2 has the same performance at half the power draw or twice the performance at the same power draw. X2 could be used for both a Lite & Pro revision.

Actually it would. Forgot abut the X2. Its already a on a 16nm process to and been in circulation since 2016. 

Its almost identical to the X1 barring a smaller fab process which allows for higher clocks and lower power draw. GPU wise they have the same number of cores.

But I don't think it will be used for a lite+pro model. Thats just bad form, putting the same APU in two different devices but telling people that in one device it performs better and in another its worse. 

The X2 however does check all the right boxes for fr a revision more in line with what I mentioned. But then there is the price. We dont know if availability is why nintendo went with the X1 since the X2 didnt really come around till 2016 or if the option was there but was more expensive.... being Nvidia.

If the issue is a price thing and the X2 costs more than the X1 then there is no way nintendo will go with that. And the only real way to drop prices of these chips is to move onto a smaller fab process, and this is something that is more out of necessity because it will actually cost more to keep insisting for a 20nm processor when the foundry making them has mostly shifted its business to 14nm and 7nm chips. 

That revision when it comes will offer slightly better performance (think XB1s improvements over XB1) and all round better efficiency (less heat, less power draw, longer battery life..etc) and may even be cheaper if they go to a smaller (14nm/7nm) fabrication process which is something nvidia MUST do eventually for their tegra line. But this notion of two models...... doesn't take, especially if it would entail using the same processor clocked at different speeds across different skus. 

I dont really think any of that would prevent Nintendo from trying to kill 2 birds with 1 stone.

Using the X2 to create a smaller, cheaper, battery battery version and a version that's moderate improvement over the current sku makes alot of sense to me.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

haxxiy said:

These are just about the same nodes in terms of size and power consumption, though. In fact 14 - 12 nm is larger, but with FinFets. Any meaninful die shrink would be 10 nm or 7 nm, and possibly the former since Nintendo hasn't ever woven a relatively novel die shrink into their consoles. That is, if they do it at all, none of their home consoles has ever gotten a meaningful hardware revision since the 1997 SNES I think? Though of course handheld is another story entirely.

None of their consoles ever got a meaningful revision because they never really needed to do it.

But ding it now would be the only way they can reduce the price of the switch. And something as simple as a die shrink (which isnt simple at all) could result in s many more natural benefits. Its not really a case of if but one of when. And that is only limited by if its possible or not. And we know it is possible.

The real question is how nintendo plays it. I personally don't feel they will put the same chip in two different skus and basically tell people hey the reason this ne is the pro is because we put in a bigger battery. 

And another thing is that nintendo has never been about "more power"; hell we can safely say they have carved out a niche for themselves as being the platform that doesnt care about power. So this to me means they will focus on things like along battery life, lesser heat generated which pens the door for even going with a fanless design, larger flash storage (another benefit of die shrinks)...etc. All resulting in what will be a cheaper machine for them to make and all the benefits of around 20% more performance being taken as a bonus.