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Forums - Sales - Will Switch Sell 2 Million This December? (NPD)

 

Will Switch Sell 2 Million This December in the US?

Yes 92 74.19%
 
No 32 25.81%
 
Total:124

Are people forgetting a certain game came out this December.

I’m going with 3 million for switch and 6 million for Smash Ultimate in the US.



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BlackBeauty said:

Are people forgetting a certain game came out this December.

I’m going with 3 million for switch and 6 million for Smash Ultimate in the US.

Not even close.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
BlackBeauty said:

Are people forgetting a certain game came out this December.

I’m going with 3 million for switch and 6 million for Smash Ultimate in the US.

Not even close.

Switch, or Smash? If he's talking about shipments, I think 5m should be the minimum for Smash, so it's still possible for it to do 6m there. Regarding Switch, I'm expecting anything around 2m (more precisely 2.3m). 



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

jason1637 said:
SpokenTruth said:

It did 1.6 million last year.  That's all the increase you are expecting?

Yeah. Cyber Monday was in November this year and Switch had better deals/bundles in November too. 

True, but on other hand has Smash Bros (that seems its huge system seller) in December compared to last year.



Shadow1980 said:
JSG87 said:
What are the top 10 biggest December Console sales ever?

I'll do you one better. Here's the Top 25 (home consoles only):


The Top 10 is dominated by the Wii, PS2, and PS1. I expanded the list to 25 to get some current-gen years in there. Between November siphoning off some holiday sales from December and the PS4 & XBO being relatively close competition (the closest we've seen since the 16-bit era) there haven't been any historically huge Decembers yet this generation. The Switch could change that, though. It ought to bust into the Top 10.

And for the hell of it, here's the Top 25 Novembers just to show how big that month has gotten in the past decade:

The Top 10 Novembers list is completely dominated by sales months from this decade, with only the Wii's extraordinarily huge performance in Nov. 2008 standing above them. The only other sales month in the Top 10 that was from 2010 was the PS2's Dec. 2002 performance. And the biggest November performance from before 2000 was the PS1's showing in Dec. 1998 way down in 19th place.

Just goes to show you how all the massive Black Friday deals that emerged early this decade have impacted the balance of holiday sales in the U.S.

All the consoles that hit 2m in Dec did so at $249 or less. Switch hitting 2m at $299 would be pretty impressive.



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Shadow1980 said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

All the consoles that hit 2m in Dec did so at $249 or less. Switch hitting 2m at $299 would be pretty impressive.

Well, almost. If you adjust for inflation you get these prices for the 2+ million-sellers:

Wii (2009): $233
PS2 (2002): $279
PS1 (1998): $200
Wii (2010): $230
PS1 (1997): $234
Wii (2008): $300

So the Top 5 systems were cheaper than the Switch in those months, but the Wii was the same adjusted price as the Switch in Dec. 2008. And the PS2 sold 1.97M in Dec. 2001 at an adjusted price of $428, which would make it the second-biggest money maker, netting about $843M, just short of the $887.7M made by the Wii in 2009 (totals assuming every console sold at its MSRP).

Shadow do you have comparisons of December NPD with cyber Monday vs without cyber Monday? 



Shadow1980 said:
jason1637 said:

Shadow do you have comparisons of December NPD with cyber Monday vs without cyber Monday? 

That might take a while. I have the NRF calendar that NPD uses to determine their sales months, and Wikipedia has a list of Cyber Mondays. I just have to find out which Decembers had Cyber Monday and which didn't and then crunch some numbers in my spreadsheet. I'll probably do that after my family leaves tonight. They're coming over for Christmas dinner shortly.

Ok great and merry Christmas. 



Shadow1980 said:
jason1637 said:

Shadow do you have comparisons of December NPD with cyber Monday vs without cyber Monday? 

I looked into it, and at no point in the past decade has Cyber Monday occurred outside the December sales period.

Okay thanks for the update. Makes this December more interesting then imo.



Benji on Era is saying 2-2.5 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Which tread?

zorg1000 said:
Benji on Era is saying 2-2.5 million.