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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

Intrinsic said:
PwerlvlAmy said:

Damn thats pretty awesome. So Switch NPD for November then, Dec should be interesting.

I think you both are missing something

https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/18/november-2018-npd-nintendo-switch-outsells-everything/

What are we missing?  Or what am I missing, to be more accurate?



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super_etecoon said:
Intrinsic said:

I think you both are missing something

https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/18/november-2018-npd-nintendo-switch-outsells-everything/

What are we missing?  Or what am I missing, to be more accurate?

That is in revenue which was already discussed. It made the most money but did not sell the most consoles.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

TheBlackNaruto said:
super_etecoon said:

https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/18/november-2018-npd-nintendo-switch-outsells-everything/

What are we missing?  Or what am I missing, to be more accurate?

That is in revenue which was already discussed. It made the most money but did not sell the most consoles.

Oh...gotcha, thanks.  So what are the final numbers?



super_etecoon said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

That is in revenue which was already discussed. It made the most money but did not sell the most consoles.

Oh...gotcha, thanks.  So what are the final numbers?

Rounded

PS4-1.47m

NSW-1.36m

XBO-1.34m



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Mario Odyssey didn't even crack top 20, but Just Dance 19, did? That's really surprising to see...



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Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Well like I just showed you consoles dont just disappear after the successor releases, sales decline but they dont just stop.

Look at those two examples I gave, PS3 & 360 sold 5.5 & 4 million in the years after PS4 & XBO released.

Even Wii which was known for having an extreme drop sold another 2.5 million in the years after Wii U released.

DS sold like 11 million after 3DS released.

PSP sold like 7 million after Vita released.

 

If Switch is at 79 million when its successor released it should sell very close to 85 million.

 

Also a 2021 release is only 4 years after Switch, does that really sound realistic to you?

All true. But none of that will happen if what I think will happen happens. Its something nintendo has done twice before, first with the GBC and then with the 3DS. Its also why I believe it will happen after 4yrs of the switch being out cause that coincides with 7nm fabrication maturity.

Nintendo will most likely release a NS+ or something like that and kill off the original NS. And for like a year or so we will see cross platform games for the NS and NS+ and eventually more and more games will only be available on the NS+. Its kinda a way of padding the platform and ensuring continuity. 

As I have said they have done this before. And at that point the argument will be if we should call it a new console or not even though it has its own exclusives. 

I get what you are saying with GBC, it had a ton of exclusives but Nintendo still considered it the same platform as GB.

But when did they do that with the 3DS? You mean New 3DS? That had like 4 or 5 exclusives in its ~4 years on the market. Hardly enough to consider it a new platform.

If they release a Switch+ in 2021 it will likely be something along the lines of New 3DS or PS4 Pro, a mid-gen upgrade that has a handful of exclusives at the absolute most.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DélioPT said:
Mario Odyssey didn't even crack top 20, but Just Dance 19, did? That's really surprising to see...

Never underestimate the power of Just Dance. Every time I think the franchise is dead, it keeps on selling 



NND: 0047-7271-7918 | XBL: Nights illusion | PSN: GameNChick

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

1 - Ok

3 - No to see his behavior on defending Nintendo or attacking others who post something against it, and since he doesn't use the moderable terms he can stay float. Yes it is about imposible to see PS4 doing less than 100M, still no one attacked the person doing it.

4 - The person had already said he undershot and the reasons and where he done. So going there to dig the post and then ask for others to have humor is pretty clear he wanted to mock

5 - JohnLucas got someone replacing him to make a thread on Switch crossing 250M (but no one beats one MS executive that talked about 1B consoles this gen).

I agree it is a different beast and 80-110 is a very reasonable prediction bracket unless bonkers situation happens.

3. Well I cant really call people out on things I dont see.

4. I'll say it again, intrisic claimed 50m was his original prediction, the other user pointed out that it was actually 35-40m. That is not mocking someone, that is called correcting an error.  There is nothing wrong with intrisic forgetting, we all forget things, but at the same time there is nothing wrong with refreshing someone's memory.

5. Ya I saw that prediction and it's so dumb that it's not even worth arguing over.

One other reason why I question intrinsic and not some other posters is because intrinsic is an overall good poster that I enjoy debating with so I will try picking his brain when he says things I dont agree with. I enjoy a good debate and he is a good opponent (same goes for you).

3 -fair enough

4 - Have just posted the link and said "Intrinsic your original prediction was 35-40m"? Nope, he felt the need to make more remarks on it. And as I said, he later requested me to have more humor, if he wasn't mocking he would say something along the lines of "I wasn't mocking him, I was just correcting his memory" not that it was really relevant since the user himself had admitted to lowball.

5 - Fair enough, no need to try and reason with someone just making outlandish remarks without reason. So he may have a point that will change your opinion. Like our porcupine. Even if you disagree with him you may be sure that his analysis and opinion is heavely data driven.

animegaming said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/18/november-2018-npd-red-dead-on-top-with-strong-debut-from-pikachu/

The software charts from NPD are out.

“Fallout 76 physical sales achieved the third highest launch month sales in franchise history, trailing only Fallout 4 and Fallout New Vegas.

Laughs in Obsidian

For a game with so many cheering against. That seems like they will be disappointed with it doing fine.

zorg1000 said:
super_etecoon said:

Oh...gotcha, thanks.  So what are the final numbers?

Rounded

PS4-1.47m

NSW-1.36m

XBO-1.34m

Basically a triple statistical tie.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

zorg1000 said:

I get what you are saying with GBC, it had a ton of exclusives but Nintendo still considered it the same platform as GB.

But when did they do that with the 3DS? You mean New 3DS? That had like 4 or 5 exclusives in its ~4 years on the market. Hardly enough to consider it a new platform.

If they release a Switch+ in 2021 it will likely be something along the lines of New 3DS or PS4 Pro, a mid-gen upgrade that has a handful of exclusives at the absolute most.

I can't speak emphatically on the 3DS or new 3DS. But I a very sure abut the GBC though.

And yes nintendo still considered it the same platform.... but because something shares the same name doesn't make it the same platform the second it starts having its own exclusives.

It remains to be seen how nintendo will play it. But I don't see them supporting a cheaper NS and a more expensive NS+. Especially when we are likely to see a $199 NS about a year before we see a $299 NS+. I also expect them to make that version support the use of 4g data and whatnot. Its what I would do and how I would play it if I were them. 

They could easily sell another 30M of the NS+ at $299 then drop the price later too..... all the while keeping the "Switch" moniker going loner than a typical 6yr cycle. Especially when you consider that considering its form factor there will be very little to differentiate it from a more powerful successor.



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

I get what you are saying with GBC, it had a ton of exclusives but Nintendo still considered it the same platform as GB.

But when did they do that with the 3DS? You mean New 3DS? That had like 4 or 5 exclusives in its ~4 years on the market. Hardly enough to consider it a new platform.

If they release a Switch+ in 2021 it will likely be something along the lines of New 3DS or PS4 Pro, a mid-gen upgrade that has a handful of exclusives at the absolute most.

I can't speak emphatically on the 3DS or new 3DS. But I a very sure abut the GBC though.

And yes nintendo still considered it the same platform.... but because something shares the same name doesn't make it the same platform the second it starts having its own exclusives.

It remains to be seen how nintendo will play it. But I don't see them supporting a cheaper NS and a more expensive NS+. Especially when we are likely to see a $199 NS about a year before we see a $299 NS+. I also expect them to make that version support the use of 4g data and whatnot. Its what I would do and how I would play it if I were them. 

They could easily sell another 30M of the NS+ at $299 then drop the price later too..... all the while keeping the "Switch" moniker going loner than a typical 6yr cycle. Especially when you consider that considering its form factor there will be very little to differentiate it from a more powerful successor.

I agree about GBC, it honestly should have been a different generation due to the huge amount of exclusives it had but New 3DS was just a few so I would argue strongly against it being a separate generation.

I dont see why they wouldnt support both a $199 Switch Mini & $299 Switch Plus at the same time.

They supported a $129 2DS & $199 New 3DS XL at the same time.

Sony is supporting a $299 PS4 Slim & $399 PS4 Pro at the same time.

Microsoft is supporting a $299 Xbox One S & $499 Xbox One X at the same time.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.