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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

Intrinsic said:
flashfire926 said:

What? Stop with the goal post moving.

You original argument was that Switch wont hit 80 million, due to having a lesser number of total games than other consoles, which I immediately disproved.

The bolded: what are you even replying to? I just said great games is all that matter, and what sells hardware, and the switch has that in spades. So youre basically agreeing with me here.

Also, Nintendo does release 5-10 games a year, some that are front runners, and some that provide additional support. Their usual great games will be the driving force of the Switch getting to 80m+. Not Skyrim, not Fifa. Its easy to understand.

Sorry what? You are twistin what I have said. 

 

And while i am agreeing with you you are still ignoring wht I am saying and in particular what makes what I am saying different from what you are saying.

I said that for the switch t hit 80M and like any other platform that has sold that much it would need a great number of games released for it. I never said it won't have those games but instead suggested that as it stands i dont see nintendo first party alone being able to carry that mantle.

How is my then saying that it needs a lot of games and games being wht sells hardware moving the posts?

And while it seems like I am agreeing with you, the difference is my emphasis on a continuous stream of such games. And i have repeatedly explained that point so I am not going to do it again.

To conclude.... those usual great games you are talking about has NEVER taken a nintendo home console to 80M. Outside the wii.... and I talked on this too. There is a reason for why its never happened but there i no point here cause you obviously arent listenning to what I am saying. Case in point...... nothing i am saying now have I not already said.

Sigh...

I've already adressed that multiple times. For the last time, Nintendo is uniting their development teams for a single console. Now, not only will the Switch recieve traditional home console releases such as Mario/Zelda/Smash etc, but the 3DS teams that made pokemon/fire emblem/animal crossing are coming to switch, giving it the firepower it needs.

Its those usual great games, PLUS all the new games from handheld developers, which will add a lot to the system.

Though you're just taking the argument in circles now and not getting anywhere.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

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flashfire926 said:
DonFerrari said:

Eeeeeerrr guess you jumped on the gun.

The lead didn't disappear suddenly on the year 5. It have been losing lead basically since launch. A show that X1 launched good but lost wind after every year. Another evidence? PS4 increased the percentage lead every year. Another evidence is that X1 didn't really had YOY growth for consecutive years as is expected on the first half of the gen.

All in all, it just shows that reveal/release for X1 for all the troubles they had wasn't the problem

What do you mean, "it lost wind". Its sold about the same for each of the last five years. 

I didnt jump any gun. You said XBO dropped when compared to 360, but what actually happened that the 360 shot up and XBO remained flat, which is true.

It lost because of that horrible reveal that still leaves a bad place in peoples mouth to this day, the primary reason why the XBO isnt doing as well as its competitors:

- focus on TV TV TV  and other media instead of games

-horrible DRM plans, trying to make it always online, trying to eliminate used games

-Kinect forced into every XBO, so they were basically selling a weaker system for a larger price

Theres not much else to it. Next gen will be a fresh new start for Xbox, where it can finally escape the "xbox one" name.

Do you know what is a sales curve for consoles and that for MS and Sony it is something that grow on the first 3 or 4 years (each year selling more than the previous) to X1 not doing that while X360 did and PS4 as well? That made X1 lose the lead against X360 continuously and also PS4 to open the lead more and more (even in percentage)

Please explain to me how all those bad things didn't prevent a very good release and start but then held the console 3 to 5 years later.

X1 done good in USA, and bad WW it's simple as that and would happen even if they didn't make the mistakes, and that is because Sony dominates WW. And have dominated even with the blunders on PS3. Look at sales aligned without USA for last gen and you'll see (and that was the gen X360 done most right and PS3 most wrong).

Next gen PS5 will still dominate X2 unless something unexpected happens. You can expect another 50M Xbox and 120 Playstation if Sony doesn't make gigantic mistakes.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

I do not know how else to say this without what I am saying being twisted.

  1. I do not believe the NS will sell more than the 3DS.

  2. And that is because I do not believe that any console can sell that many units on the merit f their first party software alone. And nintendo never actually have accomplished this. More on this in number 4

  3. The only exception is the wii... and that was driven more by the novelty of the hardware (motion controls) than anything else.

  4. And while nintend makes great games why i say nintendo games will not be enough is because of the nature of the nintendo audience. They don't just buy great games they primarily buy Nintendo games. And therin lies the problem. 

    If yu look at the PS4 for instance, Yu have the people that will buy the console for overwatch, those for GOW, those for COD, those for madden, those for assasins creed, thse for RDR......etc. And all these people can buy just the one or two games and none of the others.

    Now look at the library of most nintendo gamers. They could have 10 games and all are made by nintendo. So what tends to happen is that you have a lot of shared bases. The 5M people that bought the NS for Zelda make up 4M of the 5M that will buy it for Mario. This is why you can have a 20M install base and all of mario, zelda..... the usual suspects have all sold over 10M units. These games are most sold to the same people. When pokemn is released, mst of that 20M people will g and buy it. Along with the couple million new people the IP will bring to the fold. 

    Basically, with nintendo platforms what tends to happen is a lack of user diversity. They are all playing very diverse genres, but the all come from nintendo. So basically its like they are all buying one game. I don't knw if that makes sense.  Its like they arent just buying different games. They are buying nintendo.  


flashfire926 said:

Sigh...

I've already adressed that multiple times. For the last time, Nintendo is uniting their development teams for a single console. Now, not only will the Switch recieve traditional home console releases such as Mario/Zelda/Smash etc, but the 3DS teams that made pokemon/fire emblem/animal crossing are coming to switch, giving it the firepower it needs.

Its those usual great games, PLUS all the new games from handheld developers, which will add a lot to the system.

Though you're just taking the argument in circles now and not getting anywhere.

Read my last post. I am gettin what you are all saying. But i fear you arent getting me. I think I addressed everything as best as i can in my last post. Maybe you will see why the whole unifying development teams thin doesn't change that. If anything it just adds to it.



DonFerrari said:
flashfire926 said:

What do you mean, "it lost wind". Its sold about the same for each of the last five years. 

I didnt jump any gun. You said XBO dropped when compared to 360, but what actually happened that the 360 shot up and XBO remained flat, which is true.

It lost because of that horrible reveal that still leaves a bad place in peoples mouth to this day, the primary reason why the XBO isnt doing as well as its competitors:

- focus on TV TV TV  and other media instead of games

-horrible DRM plans, trying to make it always online, trying to eliminate used games

-Kinect forced into every XBO, so they were basically selling a weaker system for a larger price

Theres not much else to it. Next gen will be a fresh new start for Xbox, where it can finally escape the "xbox one" name.

Do you know what is a sales curve for consoles and that for MS and Sony it is something that grow on the first 3 or 4 years (each year selling more than the previous) to X1 not doing that while X360 did and PS4 as well? That made X1 lose the lead against X360 continuously and also PS4 to open the lead more and more (even in percentage)

Please explain to me how all those bad things didn't prevent a very good release and start but then held the console 3 to 5 years later.

X1 done good in USA, and bad WW it's simple as that and would happen even if they didn't make the mistakes, and that is because Sony dominates WW. And have dominated even with the blunders on PS3. Look at sales aligned without USA for last gen and you'll see (and that was the gen X360 done most right and PS3 most wrong).

Next gen PS5 will still dominate X2 unless something unexpected happens. You can expect another 50M Xbox and 120 Playstation if Sony doesn't make gigantic mistakes.

The traditional sales curve will not be a thing anymore in console lifecycles, now that mid-gen refreshes are a thing, which keeps console sales going for an extended period of time. 

X1 sold a lot out the gate because xbox had a big established fan-base by then, something you couldnt say about the 360 launch. 

What does the bolded even mean? As I said, Xbox One sold roughly the same, each year from 2014-2018. Its just that in 360's 5th year, that aligns with XBO's 2018, the kinect launched which boosted X360 a lot for 2010-2012. Its doing rougly the same right as it was doing in 2014. Its held back the same amount as it was in 2014, not less, not more.

You're repeating the same disproved points over and over again now.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

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Intrinsic said:

I do not know how else to say this without what I am saying being twisted.

 

  1. I do not believe the NS will sell more than the 3DS.

  2. And that is because I do not believe that any console can sell that many units on the merit f their first party software alone. And nintendo never actually have accomplished this. More on this in number 4

  3. The only exception is the wii... and that was driven more by the novelty of the hardware (motion controls) than anything else.

  4. And while nintend makes great games why i say nintendo games will not be enough is because of the nature of the nintendo audience. They don't just buy great games they primarily buy Nintendo games. And therin lies the problem. 

    If yu look at the PS4 for instance, Yu have the people that will buy the console for overwatch, those for GOW, those for COD, those for madden, those for assasins creed, thse for RDR......etc. And all these people can buy just the one or two games and none of the others.

    Now look at the library of most nintendo gamers. They could have 10 games and all are made by nintendo. So what tends to happen is that you have a lot of shared bases. The 5M people that bought the NS for Zelda make up 4M of the 5M that will buy it for Mario. This is why you can have a 20M install base and all of mario, zelda..... the usual suspects have all sold over 10M units. These games are most sold to the same people. When pokemn is released, mst of that 20M people will g and buy it. Along with the couple million new people the IP will bring to the fold. 

    Basically, with nintendo platforms what tends to happen is a lack of user diversity. They are all playing very diverse genres, but the all come from nintendo. So basically its like they are all buying one game. I don't knw if that makes sense.  Its like they arent just buying different games. They are buying nintendo.  

 

So what caused the 3ds to get as far as it got now that the Switch doesn't have? If the Switch won't outsell the 3ds, but is tracking a good deal ahead of it in shipments, something must be up. 



Intrinsic said:

I do not know how else to say this without what I am saying being twisted.

 

  1. I do not believe the NS will sell more than the 3DS.

  2. And that is because I do not believe that any console can sell that many units on the merit f their first party software alone. And nintendo never actually have accomplished this. More on this in number 4

  3. The only exception is the wii... and that was driven more by the novelty of the hardware (motion controls) than anything else.

  4. And while nintend makes great games why i say nintendo games will not be enough is because of the nature of the nintendo audience. They don't just buy great games they primarily buy Nintendo games. And therin lies the problem. 

    If yu look at the PS4 for instance, Yu have the people that will buy the console for overwatch, those for GOW, those for COD, those for madden, those for assasins creed, thse for RDR......etc. And all these people can buy just the one or two games and none of the others.

    Now look at the library of most nintendo gamers. They could have 10 games and all are made by nintendo. So what tends to happen is that you have a lot of shared bases. The 5M people that bought the NS for Zelda make up 4M of the 5M that will buy it for Mario. This is why you can have a 20M install base and all of mario, zelda..... the usual suspects have all sold over 10M units. These games are most sold to the same people. When pokemn is released, mst of that 20M people will g and buy it. Along with the couple million new people the IP will bring to the fold. 

    Basically, with nintendo platforms what tends to happen is a lack of user diversity. They are all playing very diverse genres, but the all come from nintendo. So basically its like they are all buying one game. I don't knw if that makes sense.  Its like they arent just buying different games. They are buying nintendo.  

 

It is very easy to see actually. As you can see some titles doing incredible doesn't matter how low the install base is, and they are pretty much constant with gigantic increase in userbase.

flashfire926 said:
DonFerrari said:

Do you know what is a sales curve for consoles and that for MS and Sony it is something that grow on the first 3 or 4 years (each year selling more than the previous) to X1 not doing that while X360 did and PS4 as well? That made X1 lose the lead against X360 continuously and also PS4 to open the lead more and more (even in percentage)

Please explain to me how all those bad things didn't prevent a very good release and start but then held the console 3 to 5 years later.

X1 done good in USA, and bad WW it's simple as that and would happen even if they didn't make the mistakes, and that is because Sony dominates WW. And have dominated even with the blunders on PS3. Look at sales aligned without USA for last gen and you'll see (and that was the gen X360 done most right and PS3 most wrong).

Next gen PS5 will still dominate X2 unless something unexpected happens. You can expect another 50M Xbox and 120 Playstation if Sony doesn't make gigantic mistakes.

The traditional sales curve will not be a thing anymore in console lifecycles, now that mid-gen refreshes are a thing, which keeps console sales going for an extended period of time. 

X1 sold a lot out the gate because xbox had a big established fan-base by then, something you couldnt say about the 360 launch. 

What does the bolded even mean? As I said, Xbox One sold roughly the same, each year from 2014-2018. Its just that in 360's 5th year, that aligns with XBO's 2018, the kinect launched which boosted X360 a lot for 2010-2012. Its doing rougly the same right as it was doing in 2014. Its held back the same amount as it was in 2014, not less, not more.

You're repeating the same disproved points over and over again now.

PS4 had mid cycle, increased sales after year 1, PS3 and X360 as well (and they had the move and kinect mid gen if you wish). So we are to believe all consoles will now sell flat with no increase from year 1 to 2 and 3 because of mid cycle that may or may not happen? What type of excuse is that?

You are a hard person. Selling the same thing from year 1 to 5 isn't really a good thing. Also please explain how you turn around sales by staying flat? And if the reveal was so damaging the effects wouldn't show 3 years later.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

MasonADC said:

So what caused the 3ds to get as far as it got now that the Switch doesn't have? If the Switch won't outsell the 3ds, but is tracking a good deal ahead of it in shipments, something must be up. 

The 3DS was a handheld. And sold like a handheld But only for a while because the typical handheld audience shifted to mobile. Thats what the NS doesn't have. That super casual mobile crowd. It also doesn't have that multiple handhelds per household thing either. A parent today will sooner buy 3 $50 android tablets for her 3 kids than buy 3 NS.... even if it cost $199. Thats just the world we live in today. Unless something changes.

And I have talked about comparing nintendo platforms already. Its difficult because they mostly all bring different things to the table. Like this is not a handheld its a hybrid. So it will sell like a hybrid. Tracking better than the 3DS doesnt mean anything if it starts to stall by the time it gets to 60M sales 



Intrinsic said:

I do not know how else to say this without what I am saying being twisted.

 

  1. I do not believe the NS will sell more than the 3DS.

 

Well, since we've reached an impasse (I think handheld franchises being added will boost Switch numbers, you think otherwise), there's only one way to settle this.

Lets make a bet. If the Switch surpasses the 3DS's lifetime numbers, It's my victory, and if it doesn't than its yours. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar, and the loser has to state their defeat in their signature for the same timeframe.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

flashfire926 said:
Intrinsic said:

I do not know how else to say this without what I am saying being twisted.

 

  1. I do not believe the NS will sell more than the 3DS.

 

Well, since we've reached an impasse (I think handheld franchises being added will boost Switch numbers, you think otherwise), there's only one way to settle this.

Lets make a bet. If the Switch surpasses the 3DS's lifetime numbers, It's my victory, and if it doesn't than its yours. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar, and the loser has to state their defeat in their signature for the same timeframe.

I"ll take that bet. 

And dont worry about the sigs. Ill make avatars that states what was lost lol.