Are there similar details for Europe, e.g. from TheSource. Apart from Weekly NA, Europe sales are the fantastic selling point of VGC. Do they similarly come from estimates based on sales data from stores, or are they calculated some other way?
kn said:
Do you realize the irony of that statement? NPD numbers are "official" in only one way: They are the official NPD numbers. Beyond that, they are a statistical estimation of sales. Period. They are "recognized" in that they report their "official" numbers and are pretty much the only game in town. NPDs numbers are "independent" in that they gather data, statisically analyze it, and report it but are completely dependent on the data they gather from retail and distribution channels. VGC's sampling data, estimating, statisically projecting, etc. is no different than NPD and it doesn't make their numbers any less independent or dependent as well as any more or less official. VGC most certainly is estimating sales (just like NPD is an estimate) on a smaller budget and a smaller data set but that doesn't make VGC's numbers any less "offical"... You said you have a higher degree in statistics. While my degree isn't in statistics, I have taken quite a number in my studies in support of my chosen field. There is no doubt that a larger sample will reduce deviation, but it is entirely possible to create fairly high quality estimates with small sample sizes. If the entire population was acting independently, sample size would have to be huge. Since, in every entry in the sales charts for both hardware and software, each and every entry is a "single" sku, the need for sampling is to account for overall variances between different stores and regions. Given past history of how each area in the U.S. along with how close each store tracks compared to others, it would be quite possible to get a pretty darn high i.e. 90% confidence with a very small sample size. Only ioi knows his statistical methods and I'm sure he won't be sharing them with us. (I certainly wouldn't) Give it six more months and see how things are going in terms of his predictions. As with anything statistical, over time we'll know more accurately how well his sales statistics compare to other data. So far I'm fairly impressed with his results given the resources and time involved to produce such data. |
To clarify:
1. I see (or used to see) VGChartz as a "one stop shop" for collected sales data. Meaning, I didn't have to go to half a dozen different sites to try to find sales. Regardless of whether I wanted NPD monthly US sales, weekly Japanese sales, worldwide shipment numbers, etc., I could just come to VGChartz. But since VGChartz started reporting weekly US numbers, I'm not sure at all about what is "official" and what is "independent" on this site. That's why I posted this thread in the first place: if I'm going to keep coming here to find out sales data, I want to know how reliable VGChartz' numbers are compared to the official numbers.
2. I never said I had a higher degree in statistics. That was another poster. I have taken a basic statistics course in college, but that was a while ago.
Archmangus,
I'll not requote as the list is getting long, but you still mention "comparing" VGChartz to "offical" numbers. Again, NPD's, Media Creates, etc. numbers are their "official" numbers but that is the only way the are official. They are estimates, too, and what you should be saying is that you are interested in seeing all of the other sites estimation of sales as well as vgchartz and how each group's official numbers compare. Small point, but unless NPD was exhaustive and funded by the government and then certified by some third party accounting firm, I'd hestiate to ever refer to them as "official".
Oh, and one more note. I'm not bashing NPD. They provide a valuable service to their subscribers.
Sorry about the "statsicts degree" comment. I see that was alvar. This one is tough to follow with all the nested quotes.
To Alvar: You said you have a higher degree in Statistics. You, better than anyone, should realize that everything is an estimate. The only perfect statistics in the world are those that are collected 1:1 and then they aren't statistics any more. That makes NPD, Media Create, and EVERY sales reporting agency's data "guesstimates". The only question is the quality of the guesstimate via statisical analysis.
Anyone truly interested in statistics should pick up and read "Against the Gods". It's a book about the dawn of modern statistical theory for the non-mathemetician.
kn
I hate trolls.
Systems I currently own: 360, PS3, Wii, DS Lite (2)
Systems I've owned: PS2, PS1, Dreamcast, Saturn, 3DO, Genesis, Gamecube, N64, SNES, NES, GBA, GB, C64, Amiga, Atari 2600 and 5200, Sega Game Gear, Vectrex, Intellivision, Pong. Yes, Pong.
Europe is much, much more complicated than the Americas - that is why there is no data for software...yet. My guess is the infrastructure for tracking software sales in Central & Eastern Europe just doesn't exist. My deduction has always has been that if Europe/France/Germany/Spain/Scandanavia/Italy/Australia account for x amount of where 'other' hardware shipments went, then it is possible through historical analysis (from reported shipment breakdowns by Nintendo, Sony & Microsoft) and retailer business filings to have the the other data filled in. This is why it is important to pay attention to demand, production, strength of sales of each of the manufacturers in each market.
In essence, if a console, let us call it Wii for example, is known to sell 250k worldwide a week, and 80k goes to Japan, and 100k goes to the Americas, then presumably 70k goes to Europe/Australia/Others. Now, the UK & Ireland have similar retailers to the USA (I don't if they have EB/Gamestop, but I'm sure GAME or whatever it is called is comparable), then I'm sure ioi can conjure up sales figures from sampling as he has in the Americas. I imagine France is the same way, and I think it may even by possible for Germany, Spain, Australia and Scandanavia too. This leaves the rest of Europe, the Middle East, South Africa, and whatever else is covered in Europe - the regions where ioi (and everyone else) has the least coverage. So if the UK/France/Ireland/Australia count for 40k of the 70k other Wii, and another 15k goes to Germany/Central Europe/New Zealand, then the rest is split between the hard to track countries, but because sales are only a few thousand each week, the details are less accurate than in other areas (remember - less coverage - less nuance). So long as the hardware is known to be sold however, educated guesswork will provide a good likely indication of what is happening. I'm not really sure about Europe though, I just think it is largely based on process of elimination for the untracked markets, and statistical sampling from tracked markets.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
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