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Forums - Sales Discussion - What are VGChartz' sources for weekly US numbers?

Just wondering, because I was under the impression that retailers don't provide any weekly information anymore.



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Its called educated guessing. Same for the Europe and Japanese numbers. It may be fun to create some discussion around, but don't bet your farm on any of these numbers to actually be correct.



Alvar said:
Its called educated guessing. Same for the Europe and Japanese numbers. It may be fun to create some discussion around, but don't bet your farm on any of these numbers to actually be correct.

 Actually its based on what retailers they do get data from and then extrapolation for the rest



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alvar said:
Its called educated guessing. Same for the Europe and Japanese numbers. It may be fun to create some discussion around, but don't bet your farm on any of these numbers to actually be correct.

 Actually its based on what retailers they do get data from and then extrapolation for the rest


Thats why its an educated guess, they extrapolate from a very small set of data. That doesnt make it any less of a guesstimate.



Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alvar said:
Its called educated guessing. Same for the Europe and Japanese numbers. It may be fun to create some discussion around, but don't bet your farm on any of these numbers to actually be correct.

Actually its based on what retailers they do get data from and then extrapolation for the rest


That's my point, though. I thought retailers don't give out weekly information anymore. That's why NPD is monthly now instead of weekly. How would VGChartz get weekly information?



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Alvar said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alvar said:
Its called educated guessing. Same for the Europe and Japanese numbers. It may be fun to create some discussion around, but don't bet your farm on any of these numbers to actually be correct.

Actually its based on what retailers they do get data from and then extrapolation for the rest


Thats why its an educated guess, they extrapolate from a very small set of data. That doesnt make it any less of a guesstimate.


Uh, yes it does make it less of a guesstimate. Do you have any education in statistics at all? The margin of error drops dramatically and rapidly as your sample size grows. In most cases, 30 samples is enough to regularly get you within 10 percent of the correct answer. 

 

If you think there is no difference between "just guessing with no data" and "estimating based on some data," then I'm afraid you need to go back to school.  



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Bodhesatva said:
Alvar said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alvar said:
Its called educated guessing. Same for the Europe and Japanese numbers. It may be fun to create some discussion around, but don't bet your farm on any of these numbers to actually be correct.

Actually its based on what retailers they do get data from and then extrapolation for the rest


Thats why its an educated guess, they extrapolate from a very small set of data. That doesnt make it any less of a guesstimate.


Uh, yes it does make it less of a guesstimate. Do you have any education in statistics at all? The margin of error drops dramatically and rapidly as your sample size grows. In most cases, 30 samples is enough to regularly get you within 10 percent of the correct answer. 

 

If you think there is no difference between "just guessing with no data" and "estimating based on some data," then I'm afraid you need to go back to school.  


Yes, I have higher degree of education in statistics. And yes, bad wording on the "less of a guesstimate", I should have probably said that it still makes it a guesstimate, or that doesnt make it a non-guesstimate. That was my point anyway. And if you read my first sentence I did say that is what makes it an educated guess.



Alvar said:
Bodhesatva said:
Alvar said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alvar said:
Its called educated guessing. Same for the Europe and Japanese numbers. It may be fun to create some discussion around, but don't bet your farm on any of these numbers to actually be correct.

Actually its based on what retailers they do get data from and then extrapolation for the rest


Thats why its an educated guess, they extrapolate from a very small set of data. That doesnt make it any less of a guesstimate.


Uh, yes it does make it less of a guesstimate. Do you have any education in statistics at all? The margin of error drops dramatically and rapidly as your sample size grows. In most cases, 30 samples is enough to regularly get you within 10 percent of the correct answer.

 

If you think there is no difference between "just guessing with no data" and "estimating based on some data," then I'm afraid you need to go back to school.


Yes, I have higher degree of education in statistics. And yes, bad wording on the "less of a guesstimate", I should have probably said that it still makes it a guesstimate, or that doesnt make it a non-guesstimate. That was my point anyway. And if you read my first sentence I did say that is what makes it an educated guess.


Glad to hear we can agree then! Obviously it's just an estimate. So are the NPD's figures. Given that (almost) all VGChartz numbers were within 10 percent of NPD's for the month, I'd say those estimates are getting pretty good. 



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Bodhesatva said:
Alvar said:
Bodhesatva said:
Alvar said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alvar said:
Its called educated guessing. Same for the Europe and Japanese numbers. It may be fun to create some discussion around, but don't bet your farm on any of these numbers to actually be correct.

Actually its based on what retailers they do get data from and then extrapolation for the rest


Thats why its an educated guess, they extrapolate from a very small set of data. That doesnt make it any less of a guesstimate.


Uh, yes it does make it less of a guesstimate. Do you have any education in statistics at all? The margin of error drops dramatically and rapidly as your sample size grows. In most cases, 30 samples is enough to regularly get you within 10 percent of the correct answer.

 

If you think there is no difference between "just guessing with no data" and "estimating based on some data," then I'm afraid you need to go back to school.


Yes, I have higher degree of education in statistics. And yes, bad wording on the "less of a guesstimate", I should have probably said that it still makes it a guesstimate, or that doesnt make it a non-guesstimate. That was my point anyway. And if you read my first sentence I did say that is what makes it an educated guess.


Glad to hear we can agree then! Obviously it's just an estimate. So are the NPD's figures. Given that (almost) all VGChartz numbers were within 10 percent of NPD's for the month, I'd say those estimates are getting pretty good. 


Yes, but obviously the npd numbers have an order of magnitude lower error margin (as far as I understand it they have numbers from 60% of the market or something like that). And as I also said previously, VG-Chartz accuracy may be enough to warrant some discussion around the numbers, but don't assume they are correct numbers, since they could very well be off by a significant amount.



Alvar said:
Bodhesatva said:
Alvar said:
Bodhesatva said:
Alvar said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alvar said:

 


 


 


 


 


Yes, but obviously the npd numbers have an order of magnitude lower error margin (as far as I understand it they have numbers from 60% of the market or something like that). And as I also said previously, VG-Chartz accuracy may be enough to warrant some discussion around the numbers, but don't assume they are correct numbers, since they could very well be off by a significant amount.


I don't think anyone assumes that the numbers are 100% accurate, but Vgcharts tries to get these numbers as accurate as possible.

Also this is the best and most indepth website on sales figures for videogames. No other website even comes close, so really if someone can find a website that offers what they do, and more accurately then please do provide a weblink.



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