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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - PR: Nintendo Switch Best Selling week Ever (US) (8.2mil+Sold Switches LTD) [Update: 8.6mil+]

RolStoppable said:

Time to do the math for the conclusion. Known values:

1. Cumulative Switch sales by the end of October based on collected NPD numbers/estimates: 7.38m.
2. Nintendo's PR statement: 8.2m+
3. Difference between October LTD and Nintendo PR: 830k-910k
4. November NPD: 1.35m
5. Cumulative Switch sales by the end of November: 8.73m
6. Difference between November LTD and value 3: 440k-520k

We've had two different interpretations of the PR's LTD number of 8.2m+:

1. The number is correct. In that case Switch sold 440k-520k in the remaining 5 days of the November tracking period. At that pace Switch is in for a huge December with the looming launch of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.

2. The number is wrong and only accounts for Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday while being missing the preceding days of the November tracking period. In that case Switch sold 830k-910k in the 5-day-period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, leaving 440k-520k for the remaining 23 days of November. Divided by 3 for simplicity's sake, that gives us a weekly average of 150k-175k which is pretty low considering there was the Pokémon Let's Go release before Black Friday and the ramp up for holiday sales after Cyber Monday.

The conclusion

The maths makes this an interesting case. While before the November NPD results the anti-Switch faction argued option 1 and the pro-Switch faction argued option 2, these roles can easily reverse after the results have come out. The pro-Switch faction will gladly take the expectation of a huge December with option 1 while the anti-Switch faction faces an incredibly hollow victory and therefore would rather have option 2 to be true now.

The one thing that is certain is that quickrick is wrong on pretty much everything during the decisive stage of his big predictions:

1. Pokémon Let's Go is doing much better than he expected.
2. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is doing much better than he expected.
3. Switch comfortably beat his initial prediction for November NPD:
4. Switch will comfortably beat his prediction for the whole year in the USA (4.5m). Switch is at ~3.85m with December left to go.
5. Switch will comfortably beat his prediction for the whole year worldwide (14m). Switch sold ~13m in 2017 and has already been up year over year by over 1m before going into a holiday season that will be without a doubt better than 2017's.

The pattern is blatantly obvious. All the guy ever did was predict against Switch. One would have to be oblivious to that in order to give him credit for his few correct predictions. Fling stuff at the wall in hopes that something sticks; that's all it ever was.


Technically NPD could have underestimated Switch through October, or Overestimated November. Either way we will never know.