"Benji said:
I have no idea what going on with that LTD number but I can tell you flat out right now with zero doubt that Switch sold more than 200k units prior to BF.
So it being under 1 million as of CM is impossible"
During Black Friday week of last year, the Switch sold ~473k according to VGC own estimates.
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/43065/USA/But here, Nintendo doesn't mention all of the week, just the 5 day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday and that the Switch this year increased last year's mark by 115%.
So, I'm just gonna assume that last year, it sold 400k within that same 5 day period, that would mean it sold 860k during that period this year, which is indeed, more than the Wii ever did within that span.
Now, let's remember, Benji said that the Switch sold
more than 200k units is prior to Black Friday, but for this post, let's say it's exactly 200k. - That period would also include Thanksgiving, literally the day before Black Friday.
So, I'm just going to take a blind shot in the dark and say 50k of the Switch's sales over that 5 day period was on Thanksgiving. That would mean that it sold 810k during the 4 day period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday in addition to the 200k it sold before Black Friday.
That would put the Switch at 1.01 million with 5 days of sales to go and just above 1 million as of Cyber Monday like Benji implies.
Last year, sales for the Switch on the week after Black Friday fell by 37% from ~373k to ~297k.
Let's say that from that hypothetical 4 day period of 810k from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, sales fall 60%. That would bring sales of the remaining 5 days to 324k. That would bring the Switch's total US sales for November to ~1.32 million. But the actual number would have to be higher than that, since this is assuming the Switch sold exactly 200k prior to Black Friday, while Benji already emphasized that it sold more than that. So we're looking at a number that's closer to 1.4 million.
God Damn, that's a lot of math and statistics to consider that are almost entirely hypothetical. I think I'll just wait for NPD.