Shouldn't people be more concerned whether Switch manages to sell as much as last fiscal year, instead whether it will sell 20 million? Like how is it certain that it will sell much more during this holiday compared to its first holiday? Or are people too afraid to even think about it?
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| WhatATimeToBeAlive said: Shouldn't people be more concerned whether Switch manages to sell as much as last fiscal year, instead whether it will sell 20 million? Like how is it certain that it will sell much more during this holiday compared to its first holiday? Or are people too afraid to even think about it? |
Because this holiday season Switch has Pokemon Lets Go, Pokemon bundles, Black Friday Switch MK8D bundle for $299, Smash Bros launch and Smash Bros bundles, while in same period of last year Switch only had Xenoblade 2. So yeah, its very expected that Switch will have much stronger November and December compared to last year (and last year in Q3 Switch sold 7.3m).
Also we already having informations that Switch is doing very good for now in November and much better than in same period of last year in November.
| Jaxyfoo said: I think Amazon is throwing all of the tools off. They might well have settled the spat, but it is obvious that they have way worse relations with Sony. The result of this is that demand might be 400k PS4s, 300k Switches and 200k Xboxes. It seems from the outside, that they are ignoring the demand, and ordering in 100k PS4s, 300k Switches and 400k Xboxes. It makes no sense. It obviously happened last year the same way, except 200k PS4s to keep Amazon in the frame. Do Amazon believe they can change demand? Do Microsoft and maybe Nintendo have a stock Warehouse close to Amazon for the holidays to keep the flow much better? All it has probably done is decrease Amazon being a one stop mail order shop for a growing number of Sony buyers full stop. The tool is not a magic psychic predictive Thing. It shows trends, in the way a form guide and weather report help when gambling. With Amazon no longer having a good say on overall results it will have affect, mainly on the holidays. This Doesn't take away from Symbios hard work, or good discussion in the threads. It might well reflect those overall trends moving into next generation, because the thought process is good. |
It could also just mean their margins are highest with MS and nintendo. Maybe they make only like $10 from every PS4 sold at $299 and make more than that from XB1 and switch.
| Miyamotoo said: Actually Switch this Holiday season catching more attention than last year because despite already avalible MK8D, Zelda, Odyssey and Splatoon2, Switch is receiving Pokemon and Smash and plenty intresting bundles. PS4 with Spiderman bundle will have more attention than it did had last year, but that doesn't mean that Switch will have less attention than it did last year. We will see, they have chance reaching 20m shipped consoles and meat their goal, I dont think they will ship less than 18m in worst case and thats still very good number. Q3 (October-December) will most likly be around 10m and Q4 around 3.5-4m, and they would need 11m in Q3 and 4m in Q4 to meat their goal of 20m shipped Switch units for FY 2018. |
Let's say we both agree on 11M shipped Oct-December 2018. That means Switch will probably sell around 8-9M minimum until the end of the year (there is always a gap of 2m units between shipments and units sold each year with every console). Switch sold around 7M last year in the same period, so even if it is difficult it may be possible although if you ask me i don't believe Switch will sell 2M more than last year. But then you ask 4M shipments more in the next 3 months, when every year, evey console have yet to sell the consoles shipped left by holiday season. That's too much....
I really think Switch will ship at most 13M, 2M shy of what they need to reach that 20M goal.
PS4 is a monster! Sony has a great shot to take November.
So over on Era I've picked up this neat tool called Brickseek. It basically gives info on number of items available at Walmart stores for certain SKUs.
For instance, search by your zip code for here: https://brickseek.com/walmart-inventory-checker/?sku=579371947 and see what stock is available. For me, at the closest 5 stores to me, there are 66, 36, 52, 94, and 43 units of the Spider-man bundle at the Wal-Marts near me.
Now do the same with https://brickseek.com/walmart-inventory-checker/?sku=539262525 and see what stock is available. For me at the closest 5 stores there are 3, 7, 5, 2, and 10 units of the Mario Kart 8 bundle at the Wal-Marts near me.
So it looks like for whatever reason retailers are not anticipating a big Black Friday for Nintendo's bundles in comparison to Sony. I wonder why that is?
| Megiddo said: So over on Era I've picked up this neat tool called Brickseek. It basically gives info on number of items available at Walmart stores for certain SKUs. For instance, search by your zip code for here: https://brickseek.com/walmart-inventory-checker/?sku=579371947 and see what stock is available. For me, at the closest 5 stores to me, there are 66, 36, 52, 94, and 43 units of the Spider-man bundle at the Wal-Marts near me. Now do the same with https://brickseek.com/walmart-inventory-checker/?sku=539262525 and see what stock is available. For me at the closest 5 stores there are 3, 7, 5, 2, and 10 units of the Mario Kart 8 bundle at the Wal-Marts near me. So it looks like for whatever reason retailers are not anticipating a big Black Friday for Nintendo's bundles in comparison to Sony. I wonder why that is? |
The price is too high.
colafitte said:
Let's say we both agree on 11M shipped Oct-December 2018. That means Switch will probably sell around 8-9M minimum until the end of the year (there is always a gap of 2m units between shipments and units sold each year with every console). Switch sold around 7M last year in the same period, so even if it is difficult it may be possible although if you ask me i don't believe Switch will sell 2M more than last year. But then you ask 4M shipments more in the next 3 months, when every year, evey console have yet to sell the consoles shipped left by holiday season. That's too much.... I really think Switch will ship at most 13M, 2M shy of what they need to reach that 20M goal. |
But point is that we getting official numbers from Nintendo for shipped consoles and their goal is 20m shipped consoles, so we should stick stick to shipped numbers. Switch last year in Oct-Dec period shipped 7.3m, Switch will not have problem shipping around 10m this year in same time period.
Doing maths with PS4, I'm starting to believe PS4 will reach 20M sold this year too. PS4 sold around 9M the last 3 months of last year. I expect PS4 selling even more this year, maybe around 10M, according to this site PS4 near 84M at the end of september, so that will put PS4 near 94M total sales lifetime. According to Sony PS4 sold 73'6M by the end of 2017, so that means another 20M selling year for PS4...and everyone is disussing about PS5 being next year.....HA!.
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