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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won October NPD (PS4 > NS > XBO)

DonFerrari on 23 November 2018
RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

Last year it wasn't supply constrained   during the holidays until the very end December, and it was very minor, not enough to effect sales. i'm pretty sure switch won't sell 3 million, ill happily eat crow. i won all my bets so far BTW. The only one i have a chance of losing imo is the 5.2 million, switch might do 5.3 or 5.4.

Looks like you missed the point about supply constraints and Black Friday deals. Nintendo had no reason to offer any deals last year because the stock they did have was going to sell without special offers, therefore any sorts of deals would have only impacted their bottom line, but not raised unit sales. In theory, a $299 bundle with Mario Kart would have led to higher sales than ~800k in November 2017; but in praxis, Nintendo did not have the supply to get higher holiday sales than they did.

Regarding your bets, you won some because your Nintendo equivalents reacted to your hyperbole with hyperbole and set way higher goals than they needed to prove you wrong and it backfired on them. The 5.2m bet is different, because it granted you only some wiggle room - you said Switch would be flat year over year at best (4.88m).

Would you like to make some on the hyperboles of Sony projecting 16M and Nintendo 20M for FY18?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Miyamotoo on 23 November 2018
colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

1. But you cant realy not agree with facts, and what I wrote about those matters are facts: again, fact is that Diablo 3 is very intresting game because handheld mode and that some people buying Switch primary just to play that game, also fact is that Diablo 3 is huge game. And fact is that Switch is very different compared to previous Nintendo platforms, unified platform thats in same time home console and handheld proves that, same like fact that Nintendo planing Switch to have longer life span compared to past platforms.

2. But 2019. already with just confirmed games (Pokemon Gen 8, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Lugis Mansion 3, Yoshi, Deamon X Machina, Town, NSMBU DX) look stronger than 2018. and offcourse thats not even hole 2019. lineup, we are still in 2018. and Nintendo most games announcing less than 6 months before launch. Next year Switch will enter in its 3rd year on market offcourse it will have some kind of price cut with most certain revision, remember, Nintendo said they ultimate goal with Switch is that "to be sell like device per person instead of device per house but that price point is still not there", so of course that Switch will have price cuts in any case.

You're persistent huh?...XDD. Let'see.....the moment you "expect", "plan", "want", etc something or say it's "interesting", "huge", "different" that thing don't become a fact, period. You and me can expect the next 3D Mario to be a success because..., well everyone until now has been a success, but that doesn't make it a "fact". Fact is something that already happened, fact is not a opinion. I played Diablo 2 and 3 at launch at their time on PC and no, console versions didn't come close to the impact that game had on PC and that is.......still an opinion, not a fact.

I don't see anything in that 2019 list that makes it better than 2017 or 2018. 2018 had first new Pokemon on the console, Smash Bros, Mario Party, Kirby, Mario Tennis, Octopath Traveler, DLCs of successful games of 2017, ports from WiiU like Bayonetta 2 and DKC Tropical Freeze. To me 2018 is just similar....and similar after 3 years means that most probably sales will be flat or less. That quote from Nintendo....doesn't prove anything, Nintendo did not make any discount this holiday in USA all year and it won't make anyone in 2019 because selling the console at 300$ selling like 17-18M consoles a year, is way better than selling the console 19-20M at 250€. Nintendo is going for profits, and it's the correct way (my opinion of course...XD).

But please..., i understand what you mean with Diablo III and Switch in 2019....,it's just that i don't agree with you..., that's all, XD. We only can wait to see who is right.

You are not bad also. :D  Fact is that Diablo 3 is big game in any case (it sold over 30m as 2015.) I didnt said it have bigger impact on consoles or PC,  fact it that Diablo 3 is instresting game for some people because full handheld mode (you mentioned PC, Switch actually attracts some of PC players also because full handheld mode Diablo offers on Switch) thats why Diablo 3 finished on 5. position of best selling Switch game of month with just 2 days of sales, and thats why Switch Diablo 3 bundle was sold out very fast.  All those things are not opinion, they are facts.

No? Core gen 8 Pokemon should be stronger than Pokemon Lets Go, Smash Bros has huge hype but Animal Crossing is very strong IP and one of strongest Nintendo IPs (it should bring tons of new users because audince is quite different compared to other Nintendo IPs), NSMBU DX should similar or even stronger sales than Mario Party, Fire Emblem than Mario Party, Yoshi and Kirby are similar, Lugis Mansion stronger than Octopath Traveler, Town and Demon X Machina are brand IPs so they will deffinatly have stronger effect on Switch sales than ports like  Bayonetta 2 and DKC Tropical Freeze. Also, keep in mind that we just compared almost hole 2018. lineup with just currently confirmed 2019. lineup, so we dont talk about hole 2019. Switch lineup, Switch will have much more games in 2019. (Bayonetta 3, Metroid Prime 4 are are also potential 2019. games, including some other 1st party games, Wii U ports and 3rd party exclusives). Point that just currently confirmed 2019. lineup looks stronger than 2018. says that 2019. lineup will destroy 2018. lineup and maybe even being better than 2017. Actuly they did had deal this Black Friday, Switch with MK8D for $299. and you can bet (if you want we can bet) that next year Switch will have price cut alongside revison. You completly ignoring fact that Nintendo aiming to sell Switch like device per person when price point of Switch low enough, that means they will need price cut next year certanly, espacily when 3DS will be dead next year and they will not have low price point offer on market any more. Ofcourse Nintendo going for profit, but biggest profit they will have with biggest possible install base on which they could sell more of their games on which they actually have biggest profit.

But you cant not agree with facts that I said about Diablo 3 or fact that Switch is very different compared to past Nintendo platforms, while you can not agree with me about 2019. even I gave you very strong points. Yeah, we can only wait and see, already at end of January we will have informations about Q3 sales and most likely one Direct with more announced 2019. games and some release dates.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 23 November 2018

Kerotan on 23 November 2018

Welcome back Rick. The needed a new target. I held the torch as best I could!

Anybody know what date November results are out? And i presume it's a 4 week month while December is 5?



Miyamotoo on 23 November 2018
RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

Last year it wasn't supply constrained   during the holidays until the very end December, and it was very minor, not enough to effect sales. i'm pretty sure switch won't sell 3 million, ill happily eat crow. i won all my bets so far BTW. The only one i have a chance of losing imo is the 5.2 million, switch might do 5.3 or 5.4.

Looks like you missed the point about supply constraints and Black Friday deals. Nintendo had no reason to offer any deals last year because the stock they did have was going to sell without special offers, therefore any sorts of deals would have only impacted their bottom line, but not raised unit sales. In theory, a $299 bundle with Mario Kart would have led to higher sales than ~800k in November 2017; but in praxis, Nintendo did not have the supply to get higher holiday sales than they did.

Regarding your bets, you won some because your Nintendo equivalents reacted to your hyperbole with hyperbole and set way higher goals than they needed to prove you wrong and it backfired on them. The 5.2m bet is different, because it granted you only some wiggle room - you said Switch would be flat year over year at best (4.88m).

I can confirm this, multiply time he said that Switch will be flat this year (that was after he said that Switch will fail of cliff after Holiday season), especially during Q3 (Oct-Dec) period, and thats funny because thes years Q3 will be much stronger than last years.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 23 November 2018

Train wreck on 23 November 2018
Kerotan said:
Welcome back Rick. The needed a new target. I held the torch as best I could!

Anybody know what date November results are out? And i presume it's a 4 week month while December is 5?
Nov (11/4-12/1) data - Dec 18th


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PortisheadBiscuit on 23 November 2018
quickrick said:
pikashoe said:

You get called out because you seem to a vendetta against the switch. When sharing your thoughts and opinions you are often just plain insufferable.

 if switch does 3 million for the holidays ill eat crow, and probably won't even post anymore.

So you admit Switch losing is your prime motivation for being here? lololol 



Train wreck on 23 November 2018
PortisheadBiscuit said:
quickrick said:

 if switch does 3 million for the holidays ill eat crow, and probably won't even post anymore.

So you admit Switch losing is your prime motivation for being here? lololol 

What's your motivation besides coming into threads and not offering anything constructive and berating on anti-switch individuals?



Kerotan on 23 November 2018
PortisheadBiscuit said:
quickrick said:

 if switch does 3 million for the holidays ill eat crow, and probably won't even post anymore.

So you admit Switch losing is your prime motivation for being here? lololol 

Ironically, arguing with Rick is probably the main reason many are here. 

 

@trainwreck

Cheers. So November is 4 week month. 



PortisheadBiscuit on 23 November 2018
Train wreck said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

So you admit Switch losing is your prime motivation for being here? lololol 

What's your motivation besides coming into threads and not offering anything constructive and berating on anti-switch individuals?

I could ask you the same question in the reverse scenario actually...



PortisheadBiscuit on 23 November 2018
Kerotan said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

So you admit Switch losing is your prime motivation for being here? lololol 

Ironically, arguing with Rick is probably the main reason many are here. 

 

@trainwreck

Cheers. So November is 4 week month. 

Oh really? Pretty sure that doesn't pertain to myself considering I've been here longer and continue to post throughout the duration of his many bans.