Taking some time off.

The year is almost done too, so he better be ready for the inevitable L. The clock is ticking on his prediction.

Thats what I have always wondered too. Longevity. 

I think thats going to be a tough sell. Its the unfortunate downside of having a box that plugs into a TV (home console part of the hybrid console). The second your box plugs into a TV it becomes a one per household thing.

Furthermore it needs to be priced in handheld territory to even stand that kinda chance.

Nintendo can't have it both ways. Gotta take the good with the bad.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8922459

But thats main diffrenence, Nintendo wants Switch to have life span (I dont talk about sales) more like 3DS, not like Wii. Wii had first 4 years very strong and after than Nintendo just left support and they start focusing on 3DS  and Wii U, Switch will probably have similar trajection like 3DS through years with longer life span but just with stronger sales (best 3DS years was like 14-15m, and even without this year that will be 18-20 m Switch is tracking ahead of 3DS). Wii will be stronger than Switch first 3-4 years in any case, but Switch has chanche after those first 3-4 years.

It will be very easy for Switch to have much longer life span than Wii, Switch will be more like 3DS with multiple revisions and different price points. Also dont be sure that this year they will ship 18m, 18m is probably minimum, they have good chanche hitting 20m. Dont forget, Switch still has launch price point and only one revison, its not hard imagine that for instance next year with Pokemon Gen 8 and Animal Crossing, price cut and revision sell more than 20m.

If Switch or Wii for instance proved, is that they dont need strong support of AAA to have great succes. Of Course that I had only 3% on Switch when they didn't release not single of their biggest games that actually bring most revenue for them. Actually that's crucial, Switch is not just home console, point thats hybrid in same time brings plenty of 3rd party support, for instance, you can bet one of main reasons why games like Diablo 3 or CIV6 are released on Switch is full handheld play mode. Also worth mentione that most Japanese Vita/3DS developers massively migrated to Switch, there is no week we dont have at least one or two Japanese announcement.

I get what are you saying, but when you comparing different price points you also need to take in account things that I mentioned. Pro is not crucial, crucial was PS4 beating XB1 in first year, after that evrething was much more easier for PS4. Talking about price point, my point it that even PS4 has still offical price point of $300 you could almost regularly bought it for $200-250 like part of plenty and very often deals. Worth mentione that last and this year are strongest years for PS4.

100m is very achievable for Switch, 80m is bare minimum that Switch will do, I mean Switch will be at around 37m after first two years on market. Actually X1X is main reason XB1 is selling so much better in US this year compared to previous years. Well yeah, and thats why Switch will keep selling despite PS5/XB2 launch.

My bad.

Well yeah, Switch or some kind of Switch revision would need to have price point of at least $200 to start selling like device per person. Also its very possible that we will have smaller cheaper Switch revsion whithout dock just for handheld play.

Well, I guess we will have to wait and see, but i stand in my prediction. Maybe you're right and Swith will have a better pace than 3DS with similar longevity (i admit it's possible) or maybe Nintendo won't care to lower the price and go for the profit and Switch starting to be punished by next gen in 2 years like i said. 

Is just that with so few AAA games or super popular gimmicks like Wii Sport like games i don't see how Switch could be able to reach more than 80M sales...3DS had an enormous support from Nintendo and after 7 years it still haven't reached 75M sold..... I can't see Switch lasting that much when despite being some of the best games available you can make so many 1st party games per year, and no, ports of old games won't save the console in the future either.

Sure we have to take everything in consideration. But even so when you start 100 cheaper and basically match the other sales curve you start having less pricecuts available to accelerate, when you have your big hitters come earlier as well.

So it will be a lot harder for Switch to reach a point of year 5 or 6 having sales on level of PS4. As some said, that will deeply depend on they being able to launch SKUs of HH only for like 99-149 and table only for 199 or something of the type on the near future.

I believe a revision will come eventually. But I don't think it will be like you describe. The very name "Switch" is conned from the ability of the console to work as a hybrid. I simply do not see them making a handheld only version ever. Especially when you consider that the only difference between modes is that one mode is using more electricity.

So what will happen? They make a handheld only sku with a different APU? cut out support for the joycons? Nope, don't see that happening. Ever.

Nope. 2015. The way I've aligned things (to the first full second-half period), the Switch's 2017 corresponds to the PS4's 2014, and therefore the Switch's 2018 corresponds to the PS4's 2015.

The PS4 sold 5728k in 2015. The Switch has so far sold 2504k this year, meaning it needs to sell 3224k for the Nov.+Dec. period to keep pace with the PS4's 2015 for the year. That will require YoY growth of roughly 42%. Certainly possible. The BF deals aren't the best, but they and Pokemon Let's Go ought to give November a decent YoY boost, and next month we have Smash, which is sure to move a fair amount of units.

I think eventually Nintendo will come up with different form factors like a portable only Switch Mini and a console only Switch TV. If they can get these in the $150-200 range in a few years than I think they can reach that goal.

Well yeah, we can only wait and see, but current sales and expected sales at end of second full year are already very good indicator for instance when you comparing it with 3DS. Nintendo will definatly low price point buy time, like I wrote, they said that their ultimate goal with Switch "is to be sell like device per person instead of device per household, but that price point is still not there". I am pretty sure that in some point they they will have more handheld focused Switch revision for $200 or less, and that will be perfect "like device per person".

Simple, just look how Switch is selling currently, Switch gimmick is hybrid and its far more stronger than 3D on 3DS. Again Switch will be at around 37m after just after two years with launch price point, 3DS after same period had sales of around 31m, huge price drop and one revision. Actualy talking about sales, I just checked, 3DS had only two years with sales above 13m, in FY 2012. sold 13.5m and in FY 2013 sold 14m, buy comparison Switch sold in its first year 15m (with huge stock problem) and in second year will sell around 18-20m, I can bet that next year will also be around 20m projected.  Talking about support and games, Switch is Nintendo unified platform, Switch will have stronger Nintendo support than 3DS had, again, Switch will be home of Nintendo all IPs (handheld and home consoles IPs) that wasnt case with 3DS or even Wii for instance, having 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, Splatoon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, 3D Metroid...new IPs, 3rd party exclusives....is huge advantage that Switch has compared to any Nintendo platform. Ports of old games want save Switch but Switch doesnt need save in any case (also its not only point about 1st party games but about 3rd party exlusives also, look at Bayonetta 3 and Octopath Traveler, there will defintly be much more such a projects), but actually ports of old great games makes Switch more appealing outside Nintendo fans because full handheld mode those games have on Switch, for instance Diablo 3 on Switch is huge deal because full handheld mode.

I dont think that works like that, Switch had higher launch price point, but you can bet in one point it will have lower price point than PS4 will ever have, especially with different kind of revisions.

Well yeah, it will be hard for Switch to sell above 15m in its 5. or 6. year on market like PS4, but we will see its not imposiible at all, also its possible Switch will not need above 15m in its 5. and 6. year on market. Yeah, I could definitely see only Switch handheld for $150-200 in some point.