colafitte said:
Well, I guess we will have to wait and see, but i stand in my prediction. Maybe you're right and Swith will have a better pace than 3DS with similar longevity (i admit it's possible) or maybe Nintendo won't care to lower the price and go for the profit and Switch starting to be punished by next gen in 2 years like i said. Is just that with so few AAA games or super popular gimmicks like Wii Sport like games i don't see how Switch could be able to reach more than 80M sales...3DS had an enormous support from Nintendo and after 7 years it still haven't reached 75M sold..... I can't see Switch lasting that much when despite being some of the best games available you can make so many 1st party games per year, and no, ports of old games won't save the console in the future either. |
Well yeah, we can only wait and see, but current sales and expected sales at end of second full year are already very good indicator for instance when you comparing it with 3DS. Nintendo will definatly low price point buy time, like I wrote, they said that their ultimate goal with Switch "is to be sell like device per person instead of device per household, but that price point is still not there". I am pretty sure that in some point they they will have more handheld focused Switch revision for $200 or less, and that will be perfect "like device per person".
Simple, just look how Switch is selling currently, Switch gimmick is hybrid and its far more stronger than 3D on 3DS. Again Switch will be at around 37m after just after two years with launch price point, 3DS after same period had sales of around 31m, huge price drop and one revision. Actualy talking about sales, I just checked, 3DS had only two years with sales above 13m, in FY 2012. sold 13.5m and in FY 2013 sold 14m, buy comparison Switch sold in its first year 15m (with huge stock problem) and in second year will sell around 18-20m, I can bet that next year will also be around 20m projected. Talking about support and games, Switch is Nintendo unified platform, Switch will have stronger Nintendo support than 3DS had, again, Switch will be home of Nintendo all IPs (handheld and home consoles IPs) that wasnt case with 3DS or even Wii for instance, having 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, Splatoon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, 3D Metroid...new IPs, 3rd party exclusives....is huge advantage that Switch has compared to any Nintendo platform. Ports of old games want save Switch but Switch doesnt need save in any case (also its not only point about 1st party games but about 3rd party exlusives also, look at Bayonetta 3 and Octopath Traveler, there will defintly be much more such a projects), but actually ports of old great games makes Switch more appealing outside Nintendo fans because full handheld mode those games have on Switch, for instance Diablo 3 on Switch is huge deal because full handheld mode.
DonFerrari said:
Sure we have to take everything in consideration. But even so when you start 100 cheaper and basically match the other sales curve you start having less pricecuts available to accelerate, when you have your big hitters come earlier as well. So it will be a lot harder for Switch to reach a point of year 5 or 6 having sales on level of PS4. As some said, that will deeply depend on they being able to launch SKUs of HH only for like 99-149 and table only for 199 or something of the type on the near future. |
I dont think that works like that, Switch had higher launch price point, but you can bet in one point it will have lower price point than PS4 will ever have, especially with different kind of revisions.
Well yeah, it will be hard for Switch to sell above 15m in its 5. or 6. year on market like PS4, but we will see its not imposiible at all, also its possible Switch will not need above 15m in its 5. and 6. year on market. Yeah, I could definitely see only Switch handheld for $150-200 in some point.
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