By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won October NPD (PS4 > NS > XBO)

Barkley said:
Miyamotoo said:

Talking about sales, in Nov+Dec, 3m is bare minimum that Switch will do (last year sold around 2.3m, 800k in November and 1.5m in December) in same period, we probably talking about 1m+ (it could easily be 1-1.5m) for November and 2m for December.

Yes imo NPD

Nov - 1.25m
Dec - 2m

Which just happens to be exactly in the middle of your range for nov. xD

Probably about 8.5m globally for Nov+Dec.

Yeah, but talking about global sales its much harder to gave number and to track that, I expecting around 10m shipped for Q3 globally.

Talking about Q4, last year Nintendo shipped 3m in Q4, this year momentum will much stronger from Pokemon from second half of November and from Smash Bros from December, with launch of NSMBU DX in January, so this Q4 we could probably expect 3.5-4m if last year was 3m.

With all that on mind, Nintendo could easily little overship Switch units (for around 1m) in order to meat their goal.



Around the Network
Miyamotoo said:
Barkley said:

Yes imo NPD

Nov - 1.25m
Dec - 2m

Which just happens to be exactly in the middle of your range for nov. xD

Probably about 8.5m globally for Nov+Dec.

Yeah, but talking about global sales its much harder to gave number and to track that, I expecting around 10m shipped for Q3 globally.

Same, my 8.5m guess is sell-through nov+dec, 10m for shipped q3.



Barkley said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yeah, but talking about global sales its much harder to gave number and to track that, I expecting around 10m shipped for Q3 globally.

Same, my 8.5m guess is sell-through nov+dec, 10m for shipped q3.

You are fast, I didnt had time to update my post. :D



Barkley said:
colafitte said:

I expect Switch to ship around 11M in Q3, so probably around 2M left on stores at the end of the year, so yes I share your prediction too, probably around 1M sold in Oct and around 8M, maybe more, in Nov+Dec. If Switch don't reach that 20M goal in won't be because Q3 underachived, it will be because Q1+Q2 did.

Agreed, mainly Q1. Personally expecting a total of 18.5m shipped this FY.

Q1 - 1.88m
Q2 - 3.2m
Q3 - 10m
Q4 - 3.42m

or possibly Q3 10.5m, Q4 - 3m

I think maybe Nintendo will go too big in Q3 with 11M, and because of some overshipping Q2 will be probably under 3M. Or maybe this will ship 10M and more than 3M later, but yes, i expect one way or another around 18-19M shipped consoles FY year too.

And predicting the future, I expect a flat year for Switch next year and after that a quick decline because of lack of 3rd party support and next gen consoles. Nintendo consoles tend to have their best year in its 2nd or 3rd year because their maginficent 1st party support and after that they suffer because of lack of 3rd party support and because they need years to make sequels for their big games.

Switch won't become the next Wii or DS saleswise, but it will achieve around 80M and with an Online paid service this time, alongside their succesful 1st party lineup, Nintendo probably will be happier than ever.



colafitte said:
Barkley said:

Agreed, mainly Q1. Personally expecting a total of 18.5m shipped this FY.

Q1 - 1.88m
Q2 - 3.2m
Q3 - 10m
Q4 - 3.42m

or possibly Q3 10.5m, Q4 - 3m

I think maybe Nintendo will go too big in Q3 with 11M, and because of some overshipping Q2 will be probably under 3M. Or maybe this will ship 10M and more than 3M later, but yes, i expect one way or another around 18-19M shipped consoles FY year too.

And predicting the future, I expect a flat year for Switch next year and after that a quick decline because of lack of 3rd party support and next gen consoles. Nintendo consoles tend to have their best year in its 2nd or 3rd year because their maginficent 1st party support and after that they suffer because of lack of 3rd party support and because they need years to make sequels for their big games.

Switch won't become the next Wii or DS saleswise, but it will achieve around 80M and with an Online paid service this time, alongside their succesful 1st party lineup, Nintendo probably will be happier than ever.

We will see, I dont think that next gen will effect to much on Switch support, even now most of Switch 3rd party support is made most from A-AA games, late ports, last gens ports and Indies, on other hand Switch is getting incrased that kind of support, so next year I expecting even more 3rd party support not less. Talking about Nintendo support, next year we have Animal Crossing and Pokemon for now, in 2020. we could have new 3D Mario, Mario Maker 2, new 3D Zelda...talking about general support, I think worst time pass for Switch in any case, things can be only better.

80m is like bare minimum that Switch will do LT, Wii numbers are realistically achievable. I mean they will be at around 37m after two first years on market, and that's without price cut or any kind of revision. Dont forget, Nintendo said they want Switch to have longer life span than usual 6 years, and that means multiply revisons and strong support (from Nintendo at least).



Around the Network
Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

It is good, but we must always keep on mind it is 100 cheaper and launched with a very strong lineup, so they have less pricecuts to do (they are priced the same as PS4 is now after 5 years in the market without slowing down, which I don't think Switch would manage) and system sellers will run their course in the near future. So imho in the next 2 years Switch will probably start to be little below the curve of PS4 aligned.

Well you can say that PS4 was strongest console on market, has much stronger hardware than Switch, 500GB internal memory, Blu-ray support, much stronger 3rd party support...sales shows that both consoles are price aduquate on launch and now. Also you could bought PS4 last Holiday season for $200. I dont saying I disagree with you, I just bridging differences when you compare them.

 

Intrinsic said: 

Thats not what I meant by "going to be a tough sell".

What I meant is that shifting the idea of a switch per household (selling like a home console) to a switch per person (selling like a handheld and having multiple switchs in one household) is going to be a hard thing to accomplish.

My bad.

Well yeah, Switch or some kind of Switch revision would need to have price point of at least $200 to start selling like device per person. Also its very possible that we will have smaller cheaper Switch revsion whithout dock just for handheld play.

You weren't around pre-launch of this gen from the time of your joining....

There were major discussion and dishing of PS4 wouldn't win and in fact would be last with WiiU doing 100+M (because of Wii success), X1 winning the gen because MS had all the money and X360 showed they could fight and PS4 losing because the strongest console never won a gen, Sony was bankrupt and all.

So just saying PS4 is winning because it's stronger should also have show PS4Pro selling more than vanilla still it's about 20% of total sales after release, X1X should win against all consoles (which we don't see). Yes PS4 get spot discounts on BF, but you are talking about FY15 so it wasn't 199 then it would be a comparison of 299-399 price point of PS4 against Switch 299. And to not forget, last year and also this year during the year PS4 and Switch have been in price parity and still PS4 have been winning all the way until the Holidays (almost at 3M lead) and that is a console on it's 5th year and only one 25% pricecut (this have been the least discounted PS console and the fastest selling almost all the time since launch, and is back at being ahead of PS2 aligned).

Switch will do great numbers, but it won't get to cross 100M imho and if you decide to put the fault on power then you would have to explain why X1X loses to all. Switch success comes much more from the portability than it's falls comes from lack of power, unfortunately you can't have it all.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Miyamotoo said:

Well you can say that PS4 was strongest console on market, has much stronger hardware than Switch, 500GB internal memory, Blu-ray support, much stronger 3rd party support...sales shows that both consoles are price aduquate on launch and now. Also you could bought PS4 last Holiday season for $200. I dont saying I disagree with you, I just bridging differences when you compare them.

 

My bad.

Well yeah, Switch or some kind of Switch revision would need to have price point of at least $200 to start selling like device per person. Also its very possible that we will have smaller cheaper Switch revsion whithout dock just for handheld play.

You weren't around pre-launch of this gen from the time of your joining....

There were major discussion and dishing of PS4 wouldn't win and in fact would be last with WiiU doing 100+M (because of Wii success), X1 winning the gen because MS had all the money and X360 showed they could fight and PS4 losing because the strongest console never won a gen, Sony was bankrupt and all.

So just saying PS4 is winning because it's stronger should also have show PS4Pro selling more than vanilla still it's about 20% of total sales after release, X1X should win against all consoles (which we don't see). Yes PS4 get spot discounts on BF, but you are talking about FY15 so it wasn't 199 then it would be a comparison of 299-399 price point of PS4 against Switch 299. And to not forget, last year and also this year during the year PS4 and Switch have been in price parity and still PS4 have been winning all the way until the Holidays (almost at 3M lead) and that is a console on it's 5th year and only one 25% pricecut (this have been the least discounted PS console and the fastest selling almost all the time since launch, and is back at being ahead of PS2 aligned).

Switch will do great numbers, but it won't get to cross 100M imho and if you decide to put the fault on power then you would have to explain why X1X loses to all. Switch success comes much more from the portability than it's falls comes from lack of power, unfortunately you can't have it all.

I get what are you saying, but when you comparing different price points you also need to take in account things that I mentioned. Pro is not crucial, crucial was PS4 beating XB1 in first year, after that evrething was much more easier for PS4. Talking about price point, my point it that even PS4 has still offical price point of $300 you could almost regularly bought it for $200-250 like part of plenty and very often deals. Worth mentione that last and this year are strongest years for PS4.

100m is very achievable for Switch, 80m is bare minimum that Switch will do, I mean Switch will be at around 37m after first two years on market. Actually X1X is main reason XB1 is selling so much better in US this year compared to previous years. Well yeah, and thats why Switch will keep selling despite PS5/XB2 launch.



Miyamotoo said:

We will see, I dont think that next gen will effect to much on Switch support, even now most of Switch 3rd party support is made most from A-AA games, late ports, last gens ports and Indies, on other hand Switch is getting incrased that kind of support, so next year I expecting even more 3rd party support not less. Talking about Nintendo support, next year we have Animal Crossing and Pokemon for now, in 2020. we could have new 3D Mario, Mario Maker 2, new 3D Zelda...talking about general support, I think worst time pass for Switch in any case, things can be only better.

80m is like bare minimum that Switch will do LT, Wii numbers are realistically achievable. I mean they will be at around 37m after two first years on market, and that's without price cut or any kind of revision. Dont forget, Nintendo said they want Switch to have longer life span than usual 6 years, and that means multiply revisons and strong support (from Nintendo at least).

I see more Switch as the succesor of 3DS than the Wii, saleswise i mean. Wii in its first 25 months shipped around 45M already and the next 12 months were the biggest home consoles sales we ever seen with another 25M shipped. By this time next year Wii will probably be ahead by more than 15M consoles shipped and after that  Wii shipped another 20M the next year....

Switch won't match the pace of the Wii and depite being able to survive more time than Wii (maybe), it still won't be able to catch up in the end. 100M sold is a lot, it requires more than 2 or 3 years of absolute dominance, and Switch have yet to prove that in one year, because i don't see Switch doing better than this year in 2 o 3 years and this year will sell around 18M. 80M is still an enormous success for a primarly only Nintendo games focused console and is still a more sensible prediction than expecting 100m sales....

 

Edit: and by the way, by 3rd party support, i mean triple AAA 3rd party support, the likes from Activision, EA, Ubisoft, etc....Ubisoft just announced that Switch only accounted for 3% of the sales of the year, and Ubisoft is the one of them that support more the Switch. There's a limit to ported games from previous gens an audience can support too. I think 3rd party support will grow worse, like with every Nintendo home console....

Last edited by colafitte - on 22 November 2018

colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

We will see, I dont think that next gen will effect to much on Switch support, even now most of Switch 3rd party support is made most from A-AA games, late ports, last gens ports and Indies, on other hand Switch is getting incrased that kind of support, so next year I expecting even more 3rd party support not less. Talking about Nintendo support, next year we have Animal Crossing and Pokemon for now, in 2020. we could have new 3D Mario, Mario Maker 2, new 3D Zelda...talking about general support, I think worst time pass for Switch in any case, things can be only better.

80m is like bare minimum that Switch will do LT, Wii numbers are realistically achievable. I mean they will be at around 37m after two first years on market, and that's without price cut or any kind of revision. Dont forget, Nintendo said they want Switch to have longer life span than usual 6 years, and that means multiply revisons and strong support (from Nintendo at least).

I see more Switch as the succesor of 3DS than the Wii, saleswise i mean. Wii in its first 25 months shipped around 45M already and the next 12 months were the biggest home consoles sales we ever seen with another 25M shipped. By this time next year Wii will probably be ahead by more than 15M consoles shipped and after that  Wii shipped another 20M the next year....

Switch won't match the pace of the Wii and depite being able to survive more time than Wii (maybe), it still won't be able to catch up in the end. 100M sold is a lot, it requires more than 2 or 3 years of absolute dominance, and Switch have yet to prove that in one year, because i don't see Switch doing better than this year in 2 o 3 years and this year will sell around 18M. 80M is still an enormous success for a primarly only Nintendo games focused console and is still a more sensible prediction than expecting 100m sales....

Edit: and by the way, by 3rd party support, i mean triple AAA 3rd party support, the likes from Activision, EA, Ubisoft, etc....Ubisoft just announced that Switch only accounted for 3% of the sales of the year, and Ubisoft is the one of them that support more the Switch. There's a limit to ported games from previous gens an audience can support too. I think 3rd party support will grow worse, like with every Nintendo home console....

But thats main diffrenence, Nintendo wants Switch to have life span (I dont talk about sales) more like 3DS, not like Wii. Wii had first 4 years very strong and after than Nintendo just stop supporting and they start focusing on 3DS  and Wii U, Switch will probably have similar trajection like 3DS through years with longer life span but with much stronger sales (best 3DS years was like 14-15m, and even without this year that will be 18-20 m Switch is tracking ahead of 3DS). Wii will be stronger than Switch first 3-4 years in any case, but Switchs chance is after those first 3-4 years. Nintendo said they ultimate goal is Switch to be device per person instead of device per household, but also that price point still inst there.

It will be very easy for Switch to have much longer life span than Wii, Switch will be more like 3DS with multiple revisions and different price points on market. Also dont be sure that this year they will ship 18m, 18m is probably minimum, they have good chanche hitting hole 20m. Dont forget, Switch still has launch price point and only one revison, its not hard imagine that for instance next year with Pokemon Gen 8 and Animal Crossing, price cut and revision sell more than 20m. Also Switch will with this second year will track well ahead of 3DS (around 5m probably), and thats still with launch price point and one revision, while 3DS in that point had already huge price cut and one revision. Also onother plus taht Switch will have vs 3DS is that Switch will have all Nintendo IPs (home console and handheld one). With all that on mind and point that will end up around 75m LT, 80m is bare minimum that Switch will do.

If Switch or Wii for instance anuthing proved, is that they dont need strong support of AAA to have great succes. Of Course that Ubu had only 3% on Switch when they didn't release not single of their biggest games that actually bring most revenue for them. Actually that's crucial, Switch is not just home console, point thats hybrid in same time, makes so intresting for brings plenty of 3rd party support that are apering for first time or after 20 years on Nintendo platform, for instance you can bet one of main reasons why games like Diablo 3 or CIV6 are released on Switch is full handheld play mode. Also worth mentione that most Japanese Vita/3DS developers massively migrating to Switch, there is no week we dont have at least one or two Japanese announcement.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 22 November 2018

DonFerrari said:
Mr.GameCrazy said:

Wait a second. The Switch sold 12% less than last October!? It's losing momentum, guyz!!

Where is Mr. Cliff when we need him?

-snip-

No longer relevant.

Last edited by OTBWY - on 22 November 2018