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colafitte on 22 November 2018
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Barkley said:
colafitte said:

I expect Switch to ship around 11M in Q3, so probably around 2M left on stores at the end of the year, so yes I share your prediction too, probably around 1M sold in Oct and around 8M, maybe more, in Nov+Dec. If Switch don't reach that 20M goal in won't be because Q3 underachived, it will be because Q1+Q2 did.

Agreed, mainly Q1. Personally expecting a total of 18.5m shipped this FY.

Q1 - 1.88m
Q2 - 3.2m
Q3 - 10m
Q4 - 3.42m

or possibly Q3 10.5m, Q4 - 3m

I think maybe Nintendo will go too big in Q3 with 11M, and because of some overshipping Q2 will be probably under 3M. Or maybe this will ship 10M and more than 3M later, but yes, i expect one way or another around 18-19M shipped consoles FY year too.

And predicting the future, I expect a flat year for Switch next year and after that a quick decline because of lack of 3rd party support and next gen consoles. Nintendo consoles tend to have their best year in its 2nd or 3rd year because their maginficent 1st party support and after that they suffer because of lack of 3rd party support and because they need years to make sequels for their big games.

Switch won't become the next Wii or DS saleswise, but it will achieve around 80M and with an Online paid service this time, alongside their succesful 1st party lineup, Nintendo probably will be happier than ever.